Malaysia retailers contend with weaker sales

Malaysia retailers contended with weaker sales in recent months on cautious consumer sentiment, The Edge Malaysia business and investment weekly (Edge Weekly) reported in its latest December 1-7 issue.

Edge Weekly, quoting retailers and shopping mall owners, reported that rising cost of living, and concerns over the planned implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) had affected buyer sentiment. The GST will be implemented starting April 1, 2015.

According to Edge Weekly, while it appeared that parking lots at shopping malls were full, this was not a sign that people were shopping. Shopping mall owners were quoted as saying patronage increase at their premises was not reflected in sales volume.

Tan Sri Teo Chiang Kok, whose family owns a controlling stake in the 1 Utama Shopping Centre, said retail tenants, which had been hit hardest were those involved in fashionable and non-essential items.

Teo said retail sales declined due to higher cost of living. “People are feeling poorer because the cost of living is rising. Hence, their budget for discretionary spending is reduced. Consumers are tightening their belts,” he said.

It is worth noting that sales of essential items like food and beverage had also decreased.

Edge Weekly quoted Mydin Mohamed Holdings Bhd managing director Datuk Wira Ameer Ali Mydin as saying same store sales at his stores fell in the six months ended September 30, 2014.

The Mydin group runs hypermarkets, mini-markets and convenience stores, which target the middle to lower-income group.

“For the first time in 25 years, overall same store sales are down. Our same store growth is down 5%. Everything is down. Even (sales) of basic (items) are down 3%,” Ameer said when asked whether consumers were shopping less.

Basic items refer to essential goods like milk, sugar and flour.

For a better understanding on the Malaysian retail backdrop and its challenges, kindly pick up and read the latest issue of the Edge Weekly.

Addicted to debt

MALAYSIAN households face a pivotal moment.

As the economic environment turns against their favour on the back of rising interest rates and higher cost of living, many households in the country will find themselves in a vulnerable position because of their high level of indebtedness.

Further setbacks for many Malaysian households are their limited savings and relatively low income – a situation that will surely exacerbate their vulnerability to various shocks such as a loss of job or health emergencies. For instance, the decline in the prices of commodities such as crude palm oil and rubber is already hitting the livelihoods of rural households hard.

Previous studies suggest that Malaysians have racked up so much debt that most of them have been spending a large portion of their monthly income just to pay back their loans.

Last year, the debt-service-ratio of households in Malaysia stood at 43.5%, which means households in the country on average use more than two-fifths of their monthly disposable income to service their loans. What’s even more disturbing is the estimated debt-service-ratio of civil servants in the country at around 60%.

The acceptable level of debt-service-ratio is up to 30%, implying that a sound financial position is when a household is not spending more than one third of his income on debt repayment.

High consumerism, low wage

A recent study by Khazanah Research Insitute (KRI) on the state of households in Malaysia also paints a worrying picture.

The report, entitled simply “The State of Households”, shows that consumerism is high in Malaysia, with many households owning discretionary durable goods such as television, washing machines, refrigerators, cars and motorcycles, despite their relatively low-income levels.

Most households in the country cannot actually afford to buy all those high valued items with cash; so, they are doing so on credit.

“The wealthiest pay by cash; the better-off choose credit based on interest rates and the least well-off choose based on what is on offer and the instalment payments they can afford,” KRI says in its report.

“But the reality is that the buyer pays more than a quarter of the purchase price in interest payments. The problem is most acute with consumer durables – rates are almost 50% per year,” the research arm of sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional Bhd says of the impact of “ansuran mudah” (affordable instalment schemes) on households.

Official statistics show that the median household income in Malaysia currently stands at only RM3,626 per month.

For the low-income group, who makes up the bottom 40% of Malaysia’s society, the median household income is only RM1,852 per month, while that for the middle 40% is at RM4,372.

The better off, who make up the top 20% of the country’s households, earn a median income of RM9,796 per month.

KRI’s study gives further insight into the state of household income in the country: despite Malaysia’s rapid economic growth in the last two decades, 74% of the country’s households are still earning less than RM6,000 a month. Those who earn less than RM4,000 a month make up 55% of the country’s households, while 23% of households in the country make less than RM2,000 a month.

At the individual level, KRI says, the median monthly salaries and wages is only RM1,700.

This, it notes, is consistent with data from the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), which shows 62% of the fund’s active members earn less than RM2,000 per month, and 96% earn less than RM6,000 per month.

KRI’s study confirms the notion that lower income groups have a higher propensity to consume, and less propensity to save.

“Increasing their incomes may lead to more consumption and higher growth. If their consumption falls because they can no longer service their debt due to rising costs (as happened in the US in their Great Recession), it can be very bad for the economy,” the institute points out.

Economists tell StarBizWeek that the relatively low-income level of many Malaysian households is a constraining factor to make private consumption, a main component of gross domestic product (GDP), a driver of growth.

While the availability of cheap credit amid low interest rates in recent years have encouraged more private spending, which ultimately helped boost the country’s economy, debt-driven private consumption is not sustainable.

Economists explain that households who have borrowed too much in relation to their income may eventually have to trim their spending, and this could potentially drag economic growth. Conversely, they note, households’ debt burdens would become lighter if their incomes could rise at a faster pace, and that would be a positive factor to the economy.

KRI’s study, however, finds that wage growth in Malaysia has consistently lagged behind productivity growth. It notes the trend is symptomatic of the lack of bargaining power of low-skilled labour and the country’s over-reliance on low cost as competitive advantage.

Potential crisis

As at the end of 2013, Malaysia’s household debt is valued at 86.8% of the country’s GDP, which is a substantial increase from 60.4% of GDP in 2008.

While economists have long voiced their concern of the potential risks of Malaysia’s high household debt to the country’s growth, Bank Negara has brushed aside such concerns, saying that household debt in Malaysia remains at a manageable level as household financial assets have been expanding in tandem.

According to the central bank, total household assets in Malaysia had been growing at an average annual rate of 10.4% over the last 10 years to 321.6% of GDP at end-2013. It believes the high level of household financial assets could mitigate macro risks.

Although KRI’s study finds that households earning less than RM3,000 a month account for a “relatively low” share of the total household debt in Malaysia, the institute points out that borrowings by this low-income group are proportionately higher than the rest at seven times their annual income.

“The pressing concern is how much debt low-income households have taken on relative to their ability to pay. They spend most of their income and have little savings, making them susceptible to financial stress should interest rates and inflation continue to rise,” KRI highlights.

As Mark Billington, the regional director of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) Southeast Asia, puts it: “Allowing credit growth to offset weak wage growth in lower earnings groups may ultimately raise the number of non-performing loans. That, in turn, could result in increased risks of another financial crisis.”

In conjunction with the release of ICAEW’s latest quarterly “Economic Insight: South East Asia”, Billington says domestic consumption as a share of GDP in most countries in the region is still considered low by international standards.

He notes that while the retail banking sector has facilitated a gradual increase in domestic consumption, which helps to rebalance Asean economies between production for export and for domestic consumption, he cautions economies with already high consumption rates to take care to avoid artificially raising the standard of living (through debts) due to the potential danger of triggering a crisis.

To Bank Negara’s credit, though, efforts have been taken to control the increase of household debt and financial imbalances in the country. Recent years have seen the central bank implementing various macro-prudential measures, including stricter loan guidelines.

In addition, Bank Negara has started the process of interest-rate normalisation after a prolonged period of a low-rate environment. In July, the central bank raised the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 3.25% - the first increase in three years – stressing the need to address destablising financial imbalances in the economy.

Cheap money

The International Monetary Fund, World Bank and HSBC are among some of the international organisations that have warned Malaysia over the high level of its household debt.

But obviously, the problem is not unique to Malaysia, as several countries in the Asian region have also seen a dangerous spike in household debts in recent years, thanks to the availability of “cheap money” as central banks all over the world cut interest rates to boost their economies to counter the impact of the 2008/09 global financial crisis.

As it stands, Malaysia’s debt-to-GDP-ratio is the highest in Asia. Trailing closely behind is South Korea at 86%, followed by Thailand at 84% and Taiwan at 82%.

Debt-fuelled consumption in many Asian economies may have helped boost growth in recent years. But as the current economic environment shifts, with central banks starting the tightening cycle amid a highly uncertain global economy, many countries in the region may well be facing a new danger.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, the theme of late is whether a new financial crisis is brewing in Asia because of the region’s high debt levels.

Optimists will dismiss such notion, but it will be foolhardy to ignore the region’s exposure to such risks, for when the next crash comes, many households indeed will be hit hard.

Ringgit down to four-and-half-year low

The ringgit has fallen to a fresh multi-year low against the US dollar, as sentiment has been somewhat dented by Malaysia’s shrinking current account surplus and slower economic growth in the third quarter of 2014.

At 5pm yesterday, the ringgit was being traded at 3.3565 against the greenback – the weakest level since May 2010. The ringgit is the second-worst performer in the region after the Singapore dollar so far this year. Over the last two weeks, it had declined 2% against the greenback.

Bank Negara, however, dismissed any notion that the narrowing current account surplus is a matter of concern.

“At this stage, with our current account surplus standing at about 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), it is considered a good sign… it is still positive,” Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said.

“It (current account surplus) is actually better than we expected because we (had earlier) thought that the rapid investment growth (in the country) would actually result in (current account) deficits in some quarters. But it did not (happen),” Zeti told reporters after delivering a keynote address at the inaugural International Statistical Institute Regional Statistics Conference here yesterday.

Analysts said the narrowing current account surplus put Malaysia in a less favourable position compared with the other countries.

“Malaysia’s narrowing current account surplus puts it in a relatively less appealing position compared with some of its peers in the region, amid a volatile environment where foreign investors are already looking to withdraw their funds from emerging markets to developed nations,” said an economist with a local bank-backed investment bank.

“The dollar is rising broadly against most major currencies in the world in anticipation of the United States tightening its monetary policy stance, involving a rise in its interest rates, next year.”

Malaysia’s GDP growth had slowed to 5.6% in the three months to September from 6.5% in the preceding quarter, according to data released last Friday.

It was disclosed that the country’s current account surplus had narrowed sharply to RM7.6bil, or 2.8% of GDP, in the third quarter from RM16bil, or 6.1% of GDP, in the second quarter, due mainly to lower goods trade surplus and larger deficits in the services, income and transfer accounts.

However, for the nine months to end-September this year, Malaysia’s current account surplus stood wider at RM43.4bil, or 5.5% of GDP, compared with RM25.1bil, or 3.5% of GDP, in the first nine months of 2013.

An economist said that the fear amongst currency traders was that Malaysia’s long streak of surplus since late-1998 might be broken, leading the country to a twin-deficit situation.

Malaysia has already been running on fiscal deficits for the past 16 years. Its fiscal-deficit-to-GDP ratio stood at 3.9% last year.

A narrowing of Malaysia’s current account surplus would give rise to concerns about the risk of the country slipping into twin deficits, a situation where an economy is running both fiscal and current deficits.

An economy with twin deficits is particularly vulnerable to capital reversals, which could impact the value of its currency, as was the case with India and Indonesia last year when their financial markets and currencies took a huge battering, as investors withdrew from emerging economies with twin deficits, because these countries were deemed to be structurally weak.

However, the countries have seen an appreciation in their currencies this year, as investors were optimistic of structural reforms in the economy.

The consensus view among economists is that the country’s current account surplus would narrow through 2015, driven by lower goods trade surplus and continued deficits in the services account.

On concerns of weaker exports next year weighing on the country’s current account, Zeti said the diversification of Malaysian exports in terms of markets and products had resulted in 60% of the country’s exports being destined for the Asian region, which remained the growth centre of the world.

Zeti pointed out that most of the region’s economies were no longer export-led but driven more by domestic demand, thanks to various reform initiatives that have been made in recent years.

“Most of Malaysia’s exports now are for final demand, and not for re-exports to third countries,” she said.

On falling crude oil prices, Zeti said Malaysia would need to make an assessment on whether the decline of the commodity was due to temporary factors, or a permanent trend.

“The trend (of falling oil prices) has just begun, so we are monitoring it closely to see where it (oil price) will settle,” she said.

More Bumi households in lowest income category, Khazanah study finds

Bumiputeras have higher proportions of households earning less than RM2,000 a month, compared with ethnic Chinese and Indians, Khazanah Research Institute (KRiS) said on Monday in a research book on the state of households in Malaysia.

Comparatively, Chinese and Indian households have a higher proportion of households earning more than RM5,000 per month, based on 2013 statistics obtained from the Department of Statistics (DoS).

In total, 23 per cent of total Malaysian households earn less than RM2,000 a month, 55 per cent less than RM4,000 a month and 74 per cent less than RM6,000 a month.

26 per cent of Bumiputera households and 32 per cent of households in the residual category other than the three main ethnic communities in Malaysia, earn less than RM2,000 per month.

Chinese and Indian households which earn less than RM2,000 stand respectively at 14 per cent and 20 per cent.

The KRiS study also found that lower income households tend to be disproportionately affected by rising food and utility prices as they spend more on food, housing and utilities compared to households earning more than RM5,000.

The vast majority of Malaysian households (4.36 million/74 per cent) earn less than RM6,000 per month and it is this household bracket most affected by the rise of food prices compared to the country’s top 9.7 per cent of households which earn more than RM10,000 monthly.

“The less a household can spend, the higher the proportion of its expenditure on food, housing and utilities, and the more it is affected by a rise in the prices of these,” KRiS managing director Datuk Charon Mokhzani said.

新加坡家债高筑成经济地雷

CNBC.com 报道指出，相较全球经济走缓，新加坡经济表现尚称平稳，但这是靠著新加坡家庭债台高筑交换而来的，这已成为新加坡的心头大患。

瑞银（UBS）追踪东南亚与印度的资深经济学家提瑟（Edward Teather）在最近发表的报告中指出，新加坡的超低利率，助长了消费者非理性支出或投资决策的风险，一旦美国利率攀升，这样的决策恐怕令人痛悔，新加坡国民信贷金额占国內生產总值（GDP）比，现在较1990年代晚期为高。

占去年GDP的76.8%

根据新加坡政府资料，新加坡家庭负债到了今年第二季末总计约2千863.9亿新元，约占去年 GDP 3千728.1亿新元的76.8%。

提瑟指出，新加坡这几年信用扩张值得注意，不只因为国民的银行信贷之名目金额增加，更因这次扩张发生在 GDP 成长疲弱的背景下。

新加坡今年第三季 GDP 年增2.4%，与前季年增率相同，较去年 GDP 成长率3.9%来得小。

不过不是所有人皆预测利率上升將使新加坡经济自食恶果。穆迪分析经济学家陈志雄指出，新加坡人储蓄颇丰，尤其中央公积金（CPF）退休账户存了很多钱，形成相当良好的安全网，新加坡家庭债务总金额固然高，但风险並不高。

不过，陈志雄对新加坡房市有所担忧，他表示，最大问题在於债务扩大牵涉到房市，房市景气走衰对新加坡经济的损伤將比任何升息措施举动来得大。

大马离先进国有多远？

日前，巫统元老兼话望生区国会议员东姑拉沙里將一篇长达7页的《告国会议员书》发给了所有的国会议员。他在这份文件中表达了对於目前国家的经济状况感到担忧的看法。他亦指出，政府在2015年的財政预算案当中，所预测的明年度经济成长率可达到5至6%，是明显的过於乐观。

他所提出的论据有四点：1.政府的庞大財政开支。2.政府对公共服务领域给予过多的拨款。3.国家债务过高，导致政府承担太大的债务负担。4.过度依赖农產品的进口，使外匯大量流失。据此，他表示对於目前的经济状况感到害怕，並提出我国的经济体系需要在未来的5年至10年內转型，而且有必要重组现有的经济制度。

这些提议，犹如醍醐灌顶，让人对他忧国忧民的情怀刮目相看。而令人关注的是，国家的经济真的到了如此不堪的地步吗？真的会步上一些东西欧国家的后尘，因为国债过高而频临破產的边缘吗？

对此，首相纳吉有话说。他在国会回答甲洞区国会议员陈胜蕘的附加提问时，就表示大马政府债务占国內生產总值约53%，相比起其他国家来得低，所以不会对国家经济带来威胁，反之其他国家也羡慕我国的经济表现。言下之意，自信满满。

笔者觉得，这可能是由於他对於大马对外贸易，尤其是与中国的双边贸易和经济往来的密切，所带来的互惠互利的效应感到极度的乐观有关。起码，在亚洲一条经济大龙的照射下，会连锁性的带动整个区域的经济发展，尤其是对大马而言更是提供了一个极其有利的大环境，使到经济前景一片大好。

即使如此乐观，笔者认为，东姑拉沙里的建言与担忧，是应该受到重视的。因为，2020年宏愿是否能够真正的落实，要看这未来六年的经济发展成效而定。大马是否能够如期的在2020年成为先进国呢？

在近数十年来，一般的经济学家对於先进国的发展程度和高度，都有一套的测量標准。

何谓先进国呢？

根据经济学家的描绘，一个成功的先进国都会有以下的指標和景观。在一个先进国內，国民的教育程度相当高，人人充份就业，在政治上信奉与实行自由和民主的制度，国民高收入的宽鬆花费能力，经济上有能力大量消费，到达民生乐利的阶段，人民在福利制度下都受到良好的照顾，社会也稳定的发展，生活上所需的基本设施完备，而且国民之间的贫富差距不大。这些指標都是一个先进国所必须具备的条件。北欧的诸多福利国就是人人称羡，在二次大战以来被许多发展中国家视为典范的先进国。

但是，在近年来，这许多的所谓先进国却在国际经济的大环境下，纷纷面对经济衰退的重大打击，从经济的高潮中滑落至目前的低潮，需要重新出发。所以，我们这些发展中的国家若要成为先进国是需要重新界定所谓的“先进”的定义。起码，在所谓高收入的门槛方面须重新界定。

例如，前首相马哈迪医生所提出的2020宏愿是要令大马成为一个先进国，而在若干年后，至今所要达到的是要成为一个高收入的国家。无疑，我们可以达成在预算中的高收入增加，但是在货幣贬值和通货膨胀率高企之下，高收入的经济效益都被大大的抵消了。如在10年前的每月收入为3千令吉，也勉强可算是高收入，可是以目前来说这已被视为低收入群了。

所以虽然经济数字达標，但实际上的所谓高收入则已被腐蚀了。

在这种情况下，大马的经济目標可说是缺乏了一种真正的高效益，而只是在描绘出虚幻的前景。虽然不是海市唇楼，但一般人民的生活素质仍然在原地踏步，离开先进国的目標还远得很呢！

通膨‧下轮金融风暴元凶？

2008年9月15日，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）宣佈申请破產保护，为隨即而来的2008年全球金融危机拉开序幕。转眼间，6年时间已经过去，全球经济与金融条件目前又处於甚么样的状况呢？与6年前相比，今天的各国政府与金融机构是否已经吸取了过去金融危机所带来的教训？

在2008年全球金融危机引发经济大衰退以来，全球多国政府不断陆续向市场注入巨额资金，企图通过宽鬆的货幣政策改善市场的流动性。

然而，在长时间的宽鬆货幣政策下，全球资產价格持续不合理地飆升；信贷风险也逐渐再崭露头角，全球无论是家债、国债都比2008年前的情况更严重；还有挥之不去的失业问题以及地缘政治危机。从种种跡象来看，下一场金融危机似乎已离我们不远。

在首要领导基金会（Perdana Leadership Foundation）所主办的第六届首席执行员论坛上，市场专家普遍上都给出一个结论：金融危机將会再次捲土重来！只不过是时间与衝击的问题而已。

既然如此，投资者与企业要如何应付这场来临的风暴呢？大马又是否已经对此作好准备？《投资致富》本期將作出详细报道。

综观金融歷史，人类共经歷过6次的全球性大型危机，即1792年美国金融危机；1825年英国股市恐慌；1857年金融危机；1907年大恐慌；1929年大萧条；以及刚过的2008年全球金融危机。

前国行副总裁丹斯里林西彦在该论坛上指出，市场可从过去这6次的金融危机中吸取到3个教训：金融体系甚少不存在漏洞、“大到不能倒”的问题持续存在以及如何將风险回归予私人领域。

回顾2008年的全球金融危机，金融体系所面临的其中一个弱点，便是来自於美国高企的债务，最终引发房市泡沫。

然而，6年过去了，目前全球金融体系的情况似乎没有获得太大的改善。新丰尼生活（SYMLIFE，1538，主板產业组）执行主席丹斯里阿兹曼雅哈耶透露，全球债务在截至2013年为止已经超越了100兆美元，而当中有超过半数来自於全球各国的公债，高达54兆美元，甚至比2008年全球金融风暴前的水平还要高。

公私都曝露高桿槓的风险中

这与1997年亚洲金融风暴时期的情况有所不同。当时虽然私人领域方面存在著许多问题与弱点，但政府的资產负债表基本上都相当稳健，而现在的情况却是公私双方都曝露於高桿槓的风险中。

更令人担忧的是，阿兹曼雅哈耶指称全球各国政府的財政赤字每年达到约4兆美元，因此全球公债水平预计將会在未来继续攀升。

安永（EY）亚太区金融服务资深合伙人博尔森对此抱持相似的看法，並称目前“大到不能倒”的不再侷限於各大银行，反而是各国政府及中行。

“作为例子，中国持有巨量的美国政府债券、日本债券、欧元区债券等。当中国经济陷入危机之际，你认为只有中国本身受到影响吗？”他相信如今银行领域所暴露的风险已经不高，但相反的是中行的处境却岌岌可危。

安永大马区合伙主管拿督阿都拉夫便直言，综观目前的全球课题，共有8个导火线有可能成为引发下一轮全球金融危机的元凶，包括股市泡沫、中国银行业不良贷款、能源危机、新房市泡沫、企业倒闭、地缘政治危机、贫穷危机以及由量化宽鬆以及恶性通膨所引发的现金危机。

阿兹曼雅哈耶也认为，通膨是引爆下一轮全球金融危机的潜在导火线。他指出，考虑到目前美国的公债过於庞大，美国在无法偿还的情况下可能需要通过违约、紧缩、通膨等方案来降低债务水平，而他相信最有可能发生的情况还是通膨。

阿兹曼雅哈耶举例，美国在1946年期间的债务占国內生產总值（GDP）共高达108.6%，隨后在近10年的高通膨下降低了约40%。

有鑑於现今美国的公债共有约50%是由外国债权人所持有，因此在通膨风险的衝击下，债权人或因丧失信心而大幅拋售美债，进而导致金融市场崩溃。

全球失业人口逐年上攀

与此同时，虽然在全球政府积极刺激经济增长的努力下，全球就业市场已从2008年金融危机引发的经济大衰退中逐渐改善，但全球失业人口还是从2012年开始逐年上攀，並於2013年超越2亿人的水平，未来4年亦相信会继续恶化下去。

总结而言，林西彦认为虽然已经距离2008年全球金融危机长达6年时间，但金融体系要真正脱离危机仍有很长的一段路要走。他相信来临全球將会陆续发生许多中至小型的危机，而发生大规模金融危机的风险则会持续笼罩著全球。

金融体系比2008年风暴前
更缺乏应急工具

更糟糕的是，大马策略及国际研究院（ISIS）副首席执行员黄正明认为现今的金融体系比2008年风暴前更缺乏应急工具。除了较6年前更高的债务水平以外，目前全球的利率水平处於低水平，而且货幣政策普遍宽鬆，导致当下一轮金融危机发生时，各国或已没有空间再进一步降息来刺激经济增长。

“无论如何，现今整体的状况也並非一面倒都是利空因素，好消息是全球经济火车头正在转移中。”阿兹曼雅哈耶指出，新兴经济体的崛起將会在未来支撑全球一定程度的增长，进而降低金融危机爆发后所引发的衝击。

他表示，全球共407个新兴城市对全球经济增长的贡献预计会从2007年时仅有的16%，到2025年大幅提高至44%。同时，中国与印度的中產阶层预计会在2025年达到10亿人的人数，显示出新兴经济体逐渐壮大的趋势，有望成为全球金融市场的救命稻草。

企业须强化本身对金融危机防护

综合各路专家的意见后，可见下一轮的全球金融危机的降临已经是必然的事情，而如今的问题应该是：大马是否已经准备好迎接这场风暴呢？

阿都拉夫依据安永的一项调查结果指出，从经常账户、公债、外债、通膨、信贷增长、进口覆盖以及货幣走势7个角度来看，大马在一眾快速成长市场（RGM）中属於最低风险群之一。无论如何，他还是提醒大马还是需在公债、外债、通膨、信贷增长及货幣走势方面多加关注。

国库控股研究院（KRiS）董事经理拿督查伦莫札尼表示，在经歷过1997年亚洲金融风暴和2008年全球金融危机后，大马基本上已经吸取了一定的教训，包括不过度依赖外债、加强国內的银行体系以及改善企业治理水平。

查伦莫札尼相信，以大马现今的条件来看，绝对有能力应付1997年亚洲金融风暴。

“问题是，危机永远都是无法预测的，我们无法预知下一轮出现的新挑战是甚么，所以也更难去避免它。”

从亚洲的宏观角度来看，阿兹曼雅哈耶亦表示整体亚洲目前的资產负债表其实比1997年亚洲金融风暴前夕来得更为健康。“虽然我们不懂下一轮的金融危机会在何时爆发，但我们必须做好准备，將大马置放於一个更有利的位置中。”

他透露，大马必须从5方面强化本身对金融危机的防护：

第一，避免来自信贷宽鬆的诱惑以及影子银行的泛蓝；

第二，政府针对性的开销以降低公债水平；

第三，巩固国际储备金；

第四，社会结构的改革；

以及第五，解决社会不平等的现象，包括同等的机会、適当的税务架构等。

应整合津贴补助金

此外，黄正明认为大马目前缺乏“公共韧性”（Public Resilience），其中最主要的问题在於政府长年来对企业过於呵护，因此只能倾向於从家庭下手以增加收入。他建议政府將现有的津贴与补助金进行整合，从而为国內低收入群体建立一道社会安全网。

查伦莫札尼对此抱持赞同的態度，特別是针对收入不平等的课题上。他以美国作为例子，收入最低的95%美国公民倾向於通过贷款来消费，因此一旦政府收紧贷款条例，或消费者停止借贷，整个经济將会因此而停滯下来。

另一个必须留意的风险，在於大马过於依赖油气收入此单一的项目。大马评估机构（MARC）首席经济学家诺札希迪表示，大马便是基於上述原因而在去年被评级机构惠誉（Fitch）下调主权信贷评级，因此建议政府必须加强其它的收入来源，以减轻对油气领域的依赖程度。

趁低累积资產

面对潜在的全球金融危机风险，国家担保基金（Danajamin）莫哈默纳兹里表示最理想的解决方案是对货幣风险、利率风险和大眾商品价格风险进行对衝，只不过在现实中还是较难以合理的价格来对衝，因此关键还是需要在资產与负债间取得良好的平衡，而拥有充裕的现金除了有助企业渡过危机以外，也可让企业在市道低迷时趁低累积资產。

他同时建议大马企业可通过出口及增设分行的方式，將业务扩张至区域市场，以降低国內环境的营运风险。

对此，博尔森相信即將来临的东盟经济共同体（AEC）將会是有利於大马企业对抗潜在风暴的因素之一。该协议將对区域內的贸易注入更多的活力，是企业增长的一大推动力。

野村（Nomura）大马资產管理董事经理诺雷甄娜表示，大马企业必须意识到如今所面对的竞爭不再侷限於国內而已，而是一个跨国界的区域市场。有鑑於此，如何提高竞爭能力以及创新能力將会是大马企业需完成的功课。

对个人而言，诺雷甄娜则建议民眾致力於开源节流，若能力可及的话確保无时无刻都在进行著投资，並且多元化本身的投资组合。

企业应对危机5C

危机处理，永远是所有企业管理层必修的一门课，只因企业时时刻刻都有可能陷入未知的危机中。而企业能否从危机中存活下来，往往就取决於管理层如何应对危机。

捷运公司（MRT Corp）首席执行员拿督威拉阿兹哈便就此提出5C来应对危机。值得一提的是，捷运公司早前便陷入一场危机，因工程意外导致3名工人身亡，面临群眾的压力与指责。

1.面对现实（Confront Reality）

儘管人们都在尽可能避免危机的发生，但並不代表在危机发生时加以否认，逃避眼前的事实。

当危机降临之际，最关键的还是企业必须勇於面对现实，承认危机的存在。只有在承认危机过后，管理层才能够进一步作出相应的应对措施，包括在短期存活与长期增长间寻找平衡点、重新对旗下业务作出评估等等。

除了在下一轮金融危机爆发的时候面对现实，大马企业也应该醒觉瞭解如今市场爆发金融危机的潜在风险，並从现在开始作出適当的准备，未雨绸繆，方可在危机真正出现时生存下来。

2.创意（Creativity）

在確认了危机的存在后，企业接下来的应对动作，讲求的將是创意，比如在產品上发挥创意，推出革命性的创新產品，亦或在生產过程下手，以创意方式提高生產效率。

拥有强韧灵活性的企业，普遍上將会较臃肿呆板的企业更能够承受危机的衝击，皆因高灵活性的企业更能够因应不同的环境而作出改变，甚至有能力在艰难的环境下也创造出价值，把“危”转为“机”。

3.勇气（Courage）

每当危机出现，所有眼光都將会移到管理层身上。在承受著庞大压力的当儿，管理层又是否有足够的勇气，去作出可能引起爭议的决定，並勇於承担该决定所带来的后果呢？

对此，威拉阿兹哈便直言：“当危机降临时，无法作出任何决定，比作出错误的决定来得更糟糕。”

在危机来临的时候，企业可能必须作出某些牺牲，譬如搁置某些核心发展计划、或脱售某些资產。若能够壮士断臂，果断地作出適当的牺牲，除了可加强企业存活下来的几率，在市场好转时也更易於企业的復甦。

4.沟通（Communication）

在一家企业面对危机时，那並不只是管理层的课题而已，而是需要企业上下所有人齐心协力一同跨越。因此，良好且有效率的沟通，以便所有阶层的僱员都能够清楚瞭解所面临的危机状况，也是关键之一。

除了保持透明度以外，管理层也需通过適当的沟通，消除眾人对危机的恐惧感，並且鼓舞內部全体所有人的士气，一同跨越眼前的危机。

在眾人都清楚瞭解企业所面临的危机状况，並做好准备一同渡过难关之际，威拉阿兹哈表示管理层也应该让员工们知道企业对他们的预期，藉此而让他们瞭解在这段时期內应该达成的事。

5.贏得並保留客户（Customer Acquisition & Retention）

在危机发生的时候，企业旗下的客户或会被事件所影响，进而对该企业的產品或服务抱持观望態度。在这情况之下，企业对外的首要任务便是专注於留住原有的客户群，尽可能降低客户的流失量。

“谨慎且以客户为主的市场营销、销售及分销策略，是至关重要的。”威拉阿兹哈指出。

除了保留原有的客户群以外，企业也能够趁著金融危机的出现，夺取较弱同行对手的市场份额，从危机中寻找机会。

明年起降信用卡收费‧银行业营收料年减2亿

国家银行建议从明年起把银行向商家征收信用卡交易的交换费（interchange fees）顶限由目前1.2%调低至1.0%，以及从2021年起进一步调低至0.48%，分析员认为一旦落实，估计整体银行业明年起每年流失2亿零200万令吉营收，以及2021年起流失7亿2千800万令吉营收，其中分別佔信用卡交易额16.0%与15%的联昌集团（CIMB，1023，主板金融组）与马来亚银行（MAYBANK，1155，主板金融组）料將首当其衝。

联昌和马银行料首当其衝

大马研究说，中短期內本地银行受此措施衝击不大，不过在2021年之后，造成之营业额差异会更显著。

“银行为减缓上述衝击，预料未来將减少提供奖赏或积分。”

国家银行日前公佈付款卡重组架构概念文件及建议调低信用卡交换费，原因是国际主要付款卡网络威世和万事达卡，最近调高国內4万6千300商户的商家费率（Merchant Discount Rate），促使商户为收回上涨成本而调高物品价服务价格，不仅將严重衝击持卡者，亦衝击习惯以信用卡付款的普罗大眾。商户商家费率平均为1.5%至2.5%，造成小商家未广泛接受信用卡付款。

“大马人透过信用卡付款，人均高达11.3项交易，扣账卡（debit card）只达1.6项，儘管2010至2013年信用卡交易量与值增长15%至25.5%，由2010年的2亿9千500万交易和798亿令吉增长至3亿3千900万交易和1千零1亿令吉，然而信用卡的销售终端设备（POS）却於2012年停滯，显示商家难於承担商户商家费率（MDR）。

2013年国內信用卡持有者在国內似信用卡交易额达870亿令吉，另有107亿令吉在国外交易；预计2014全年交易额达高升至1千零17亿令吉。

大马研究瞭解，商家以往只需付1.5%至2.0%商户商家费率予付款卡网路；这MDR中包含交换费，由银行和信用卡公司向商户收取。

举例说，一名持有A银行信用卡客户在B收单银行（Acquirer Bank）交易100令吉，相关商户被收取2%或2令吉费用，B收单银行付1.2%或1令吉20仙予发信用卡予客户的A银行，B收单银行则从该交易获80仙费用。

维持银行业“中和”评级

“假若A银行是发信用卡和收单银行，则全额收取该项交易的2令吉。”

大马研究认为发信用卡银行获取更高幅度收费，因需承担交易日至付款日的风险，或从持卡者潜在引起的信贷成本；儘管收单银行未承受任何信贷成本风险，惟需承受在商户设立销售终端设备（POS）之成本，同时或需付国际付款网络威世或万事达若干幅度的付款金额（Assessments）。根据维基，威世为0.18%，万事达卡为0.11%。

大马研究维持银行业“中和”评级。

EPF in dilemma

The mega-banking merger reveals how the pension fund is helpless when it involves companies where it is the single-largest shareholder.

IT is a perplexing situation when a shareholder is not able to vote on the direction of the company in which it has a substantial presence.

Yet, this is the quandary that the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) has found itself in.

The recent barring of the EPF from voting on the proposed mega-bank merger between RHB Capital Bhd (RHB Cap), CIMB Group Holdings Bhd and Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB) has unravelled a tricky position for the fund that manages the retirement savings of 14 million Malaysians.

Based on Bursa Malaysia’s reasoning for denying the EPF the privilege to vote in the recent case, it could well mean that the fund’s non-entitlement to vote could actually extend beyond the case of the proposed merger of RHB Cap, CIMB and MBSB.

Note that the stock market regulator has disallowed the EPF to express its vote on the proposed merger on the grounds that it is a related-party transaction, and the fund is the single-largest shareholder in at least one of the companies involved.

The EPF is the single-largest shareholder in RHB Cap, in which it has a 41% stake, and MBSB, with a 65% stake. The fund is also a substantial shareholder in CIMB, with a 14.6% interest.

Besides the three banks, the EPF is also a substantial shareholder in several other major banks in Malaysia – Malayan Banking Bhd (12.35%), Public Bank Bhd (15.14%), AMMB Holdings Bhd (14.37%) and Alliance Financial Group Bhd (15.14%).

In such an instance, if any of these banks were to make an offer for RHB Cap in the event the proposed merger of RHB-CIMB-MBSB lapses, the EPF would still be barred from voting on an outcome. The deal would still be decided by Abu Dhabi’s Aabar Investments PJS and OSK Holdings Bhd, which respectively have 21.22% and 9.9% stakes in RHB Cap, along with other minority shareholders.

“Any of the smaller banks can make an offer for RHB and the EPF cannot decide on it because the rules restrict it from voting. It will be entirely up to Aabar and OSK Holdings to decide. This is the hard reality that the fund faces and something that has been deliberated at the investment committee,” say sources.

In the property and construction sector, the EPF would be caught in a similar situation if IJM Corp Bhd or WCT Holdings Bhd, in which the fund has 11.9% and 10.42% interests, respectively, were to make a bid for Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB), in which the EPF is the single-largest shareholder with a 36.47% stake. Without its voting right in such instances, IJM or WCT could take over MRCB and the EPF can do nothing about it.

This puts the EPF in a bind, as it now appears that the fund does not actually have much control over its own investments because of the prevailing regulations of Bursa Malaysia.

Investment review

In a tough spot, there is talk that the EPF will be assessing its options.

Sources tell StarBizWeek that the fund might be looking at reviewing its shareholdings in listed companies to avoid being caught in a powerless situation again in the event of future corporate exercises taking place in these companies.

The planned move by the EPF’s investment panel, sources say, stems from the fund’s recent experience in the proposed merger and acquisition exercise involving RHB Cap, CIMB and MBSB, whereby the EPF’s voting rights had been denied by Bursa Malaysia on conflict-of-interest grounds.

The EPF’s huge exposure in the local banking industry dates back to the late-1990s, as it heeded Bank Negara’s call for institutional investors to invest heavily in local banks.

This came about after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, when many banks found themselves insufficiently capitalised and heavily burdened with non-performing loans. The situation was made worse by the fact that their individual owners were saddled with all sorts of financial constraints that came about after the ringgit’s value plummeted.

Bank Negara then deemed that institutionalised shareholding could ensure that local banks became well-capitalised, ruling subsequently that banks should no longer be controlled by individuals.

Before the crisis in 1998, most banks were controlled by individuals. RHB, for instance, was controlled by Tan Sri Abdul Rashid Hussain, while AMMB was controlled by Tan Sri Azman Hashim and CIMB (the-then Bank of Commerce) was controlled by the Renong Group.

Over the years, government-linked funds such as the EPF gradually emerged as significant shareholders in local banks, as Bank Negara advocated the policy of having more institutionalised shareholding.

This is also in line with global trends that have seen the institutionalisation of shareholding taking precedence in critical sectors such as banking.

“Now that policy is biting back at the EPF,” says a banker.

Reducing interests?

A market observer notes that as long as the EPF remains the single-largest shareholder in certain companies and at the same time a substantial shareholder in at least 30 companies listed on the local bourse, the fund will face the risk of running into the same dilemma of having its voting rights denied in the event of future corporate exercises.

Hence, sources say among the options being considered by the EPF for the future is to pare down its stakes in certain companies so that the fund would no longer be the single largest or substantial shareholder in companies listed on the local bourse. The EPF is considered a substantial shareholder when it has at least a 10% stake in a company.

This is one of the changes of the EPF under current chief executive officer Datuk Shahril Ridza Ridzuan.

An analyst with a government-linked fund notes that the EPF will likely take on the role of passive investor in companies, instead of being in a position of influence over a company’s operations.

The analyst points out that by readjusting its portfolio, the EPF can, in part, resolve the issue of a conflict of interest in the event of major corporate exercises involving the companies in which it has interests.

“This will allow the EPF to vote on any major exercise, but at the same time, not be involved in the company’s management,” the analyst says.

“Having the right to vote in a corporate exercise is important because it will determine the EPF’s investments,” he adds.

According to analysts, if the RHB-CIMB-MBSB deal does not go through, then the EPF could consider selling down its stakes in other banks to less than 10%, while maintaining its stake in RHB Cap. This is because it is more difficult to sell a big block of shares in RHB Cap. With less than a 10% stake, the EPF will no longer be considered a substantial shareholder.

But, on the other hand, if the merger of CIMB-RHB-MBSB does go through, then the EPF’s dilemma will be naturally solved and the fund will not need to reassess its holdings in RHB Cap and MBSB.

A successful merger of the three financial institutions is expected to reduce the EPF’s stake to 25% in the merged entity.

Fair play?

Last week, the EPF submitted an appeal to Bursa Malaysia for its right to vote on the proposed merger between RHB Cap, CIMB and MBSB.

Bursa Malaysia’s earlier decision last month to bar the EPF from voting on the proposed deal involving the three banks may raise concerns among certain quarters, but most fund managers, and even the Minority Shareholder Watchdog Group, believe Bursa Malaysia made the right move.

“There are existing rules in the market to promote fairness and orderliness in trading; we have no choice but to play by the rules,” a fund manager with an international insurance company stresses.

“And that means, for us as fund managers and investors, we need to plan our strategy accordingly to ensure our rights with regards to our investments not being jeopardised,” she explains.

Bursa Malaysia on Oct 22 ruled that the EPF will not be allowed to vote in the proposed merger of RHB Cap, CIMB and MBSB, despite the fund arguing that the interest of its 14 million members would be at stake.

Bursa Malaysia said that by virtue of the EPF being a common major shareholder in all three affected companies, as well as the single-largest shareholder of both RHB Cap and MBSB, there existed a potential conflict-of-interest situation, whereby the EPF may be able to influence the proposed merger for its own benefit.

The market regulator also said the EPF’s position was not the same as the other shareholders of RHB Cap, as it had controlling stakes in RHB Cap and MBSB, hence putting it in a position of significant influence in these companies.

“We need to look at things from the bigger perspective ... Let the market decide on what is best for the company,” a fund manager with a local asset management company says.

“It does not benefit Bursa Malaysia as a whole if the EPF is allowed to vote, particularly in cases where there could be a potential conflict of interest,” he argues.

The fund manager notes that the Malaysian stock market at present is already a “controlled” market by most international investors. Allowing the EPF, which has a substantial presence in almost all major companies listed on the local bourse, to vote in cases where there could be a potential conflict of interest would not work in favour of market perception, he points out.

“The EPF does not represent shareholders per se, it represents workers in Malaysia ... our view is that the pension fund should not be involved in driving the business direction. It is merely an investor, so let the managers decide on the direction of the company,” the fund manager says.

Fund managers believe stock market regulations cannot keep changing to work in favour of important institutions or to please certain groups. After all, the clause in the listing requirements that put the EPF in a bind was only put forward about eight years ago, following the merger of plantation companies under Permodalan Nasional Bhd (see boxed story).

The mega-bank merger involving RHB Cap, CIMB and MBSB is a stark reminder of how the rules can come back to haunt the institutions.

For the EPF, this is a lesson learnt and a great reason why it should reduce its stake in large corporations – so that it does not get into a bind again.

“金融失衡”风险渐消退‧国行料明年下半年再升息

市场经济学家认为国家银行在11月的货幣政策声明（MPS）中立场已从早前的“缓和鹰派”转向“略偏鸽派”，而且大马“金融失衡”的风险也逐步消退，普遍预测国行只会在2015下半年才会考虑再次升息。

国行在週四结束的今年最后一次货幣政策委员会（MPC）会议中，维持隔夜政策利率（OPR）於3.25%不变。

马银行研究指出，儘管国行在这次的声明中再次使用“金融失衡”的字眼，但同时强调全球经济增长存在下行风险，而且內部增长也料会在通膨的拖累下出现放缓，因此相信其政策的焦点还是在於確保达到增长与通膨间的平衡。

“整体而言，大马经济被看好正保持在稳健增长的轨道上，但国行也確认全球经济增长下行风险增高，以及全球金融市场波动性走高的现象。”

综观国行迄今为止所发佈的68份货幣政策声明中，共有8份声明出现了“金融失衡”的字眼。马银行研究认为，此字眼的使用可被视为国行即將升息的强烈信號，因最近3次的升息前都出现在之前的货幣政策声明中。

无论如何，“金融失衡”字眼在2014年3月、5月、7月和9月的货幣政策声明已一再出现，但国行却只在今年7月上调隔夜政策利率25个基点至3.25%。马银行研究表示，这是因为金融失衡的风险已正逐步消退，促使国行在最近两次的货幣政策委员会会议中暂缓升息的动作。

根据马银行研究对金融失衡风险的最新分析，发现只有41%的指標处於危险水平，低於半数。据悉，在最近3次升息的期间，都出现半数以上的指標呈现危险水平，其中2010年3至7月期间达75%、2011年5月达65%，刚过去的7月升息则有55%。

“过往，国行只会在发现到金融失衡持续集结或需求拉动的通膨时，才会將利率水平正常化。隨著审慎的宏观措施已经就绪，加上7月的升息举动，近期的数据显示家庭贷款增长已经在第三季放缓至10.9%，低於今年首季的11.8%，”安联星展研究指出。

另外，联昌研究也认同国行在11月货幣政策声明中的语调与用词，预示著明年升息的可能性较低，其中国行没重复9月所提及的“或进一步调整货幣政策的宽鬆程度”字句，相反的在这次的声明中表示：“目前的货幣政策仍保持著宽鬆的立场，並適合当前的货幣与金融环境状態。”

保障家庭消费与內部增长成首要目標

联昌相信国行当前的首要目標是保障家庭消费与內部增长的稳定性，2015年的利率决策料得视两者放缓的程度而定。

根据財政部最新经济报告书的资料计算，2014年和2015年精確的增长预测分別为5.7%和5.2%，双双显示2014下半年以及2015年实际增长的放缓，无法延续今年上半年的强劲表现。

消费税实施后 通膨料冲4.5%

至於通膨方面，马银行研究预测在未来15个月內会再次走高，於今年末季和明年首季处於大约3%的平均增长水平，並在消费税的实施后於明年4月加速增长到4%至4.5%水平，然后在明年5月至9月进一步上攀到5.5%至6.5%水平，最终在2015年末季减缓到4.5%至5%水平。

马银行研究预测国行在2015年第三季杪或末季初前都不会对隔夜政策利率动手，目前猜测会等到明年最后一次的货幣政策委员会会议才会再升息25个基点至3.50%，以便能够缓解津贴合理化与消费税实施所带来的衝击。

美若升息將削弱马幣走势

无论如何，若经济增长势头保持强健，兴业研究估计国行可能会在明年首季便重新探討升息的需要，因高通膨最终料將把实际利率水平拉低至负数，隨著时间的推移或再次引发金融失衡的风险。同时，市场对美国升息的预测也將逐渐攀高，或致使短期资金的外流並削弱马幣走势。

苹果CEO蒂姆·库克的撰文

苹果CEO蒂姆·库克在《商业周刊》网站上的撰文。看看萍果和美国人，美国企业的价值观，有一定的参考价值！以下为库克的声明全文：

多年来，我一直对很多人公开我的性取向。苹果的很多同事都知道我是同性恋，这似乎并没有让他们对我另眼相待。当然，我非常有幸在这家公司工作，他们喜欢创造力和创新，他们知道，只有接纳人们的多样性，公司才能蒸蒸日上。并非每个人都像我这样幸运。

虽然我从未否认我的性取向，但截至目前，我也没有公开承认过。所以，我想在此阐明：我很自豪我是同性恋，我认为身为同性恋是上帝赐予我的最好礼物。

同性恋身份让我更加深刻地体会到，作为一位少数派究竟意味着什么。它给我提供了一个视角，让我能够深入洞察其他少数派每天都在应对怎样的挑战。它让我更加善解人意，并由此经历了一段更加丰富的人生。它有时让我感到不舒适，心神不宁，但它给予我信心，让我有勇气张扬个性，走自己的路，超越逆境和偏执。它还赋予我一身犹如铜墙铁壁般的犀牛皮——当你是苹果公司CEO的时候，这层皮囊随时都能派上用场。

沧海桑田。这个世界已不复我孩提时代的模样。美国正在迈向婚姻平等，勇敢出柜的公众人物已经改变了世人的观念，促使我们的文化变得更加宽容。

不过，美国大多数州的法律依然允许雇主仅仅基于员工的性取向而将其解雇。在许多地方，房东依然可以因租户是同性恋而将其驱逐出门。还有一些地方禁止我们探访生病的伴侣或分享他们的遗产。无数同性恋者，尤其是孩子，每天生活在恐惧和被虐待的屈辱之中。

我不认为自己是一位活动家，但我意识到自己受惠于其他人的牺牲。因此，如果听说苹果公司CEO是一名同性恋者，可以帮助一些人更加坦然地接受自己的同性恋身份，或者给一些饱受孤独之苦的同性恋者带来一丝慰藉，或者能激励人们坚持他们的平等观念，那么我牺牲一点个人隐私还是非常值得的。

我要承认，这并非一个轻松的选择。隐私对我仍然重要，而且我希望还能保有一点点隐私。我已经将苹果公司作为自己毕生的工作，而且仍会将清醒的每一分钟，都专注地致力于成为最卓越的CEO。这是我们的员工应得的——我们的客户、程序员、股东和供应商合作伙伴同样如此。社会进步的部分意义在于认识到不能仅凭一个人的性取向、族裔或性别来对其作出评判。我是个工程师，是别人的叔叔，是大自然爱好者，是健身狂人，是一个南方家庭养育的儿子，是体育运动迷，此外还有众多其他身份。我希望大家能尊重我的愿望，我会集中精力于自己最擅长的领域，继续专注带给我快乐的工作。

我是如此幸运，领导了一家长久以来倡导人权和人人平等的公司。我们曾在国会坚定地支持职场平等法案，也曾在公司所在的加州支持婚姻平等。此外，当亚利桑那州立法机关通过了一项针对同性恋族群的歧视法案时，我们曾站起来抗议。我们将继续为自己的价值观而奋斗，我也相信，在这家公司，换成任何人当CEO，不管他们的族裔、性别或性取向如何，都会做同样的事情。我个人将继续为所有人的平等而大声疾呼，直至生命最后一刻。

我每天早上进入办公室时，都会看到马丁·路德·金和罗伯特?肯尼迪(Robert F. Kennedy)的相框。我写这篇文章并不是要虚张声势，把自己与他们并列，而是为了让我在看到这些照片时，知道自己正在倾尽所能帮助他人，无论我的贡献是多么微不足道。我们正一砖一瓦地铺设一条通向正义的阳光之路。这就是我添上的一块砖。