After turbulent 2014, next year may be no calmer

From financial crisis in Russia to cyber warfare with North Korea, 2014 has generated new flashpoints right into its final days, setting 2015 up to be just as turbulent.

Almost all of the major confrontations, such as the battle with Islamic State militants, the West's stand-off with Russia over Ukraine and the fight against Ebola, will rumble on. Others could erupt at short notice.

"Normally after a year like this you might expect things to calm down," said John Bassett, former senior official with British signals intelligence agency GCHQ now an associate at Oxford University. "But none of these problems have been resolved and the drivers of them are not going away."

The causes are varied - a global shift of economic power from the West, new technologies, regional rivalries and anger over rising wealth gaps.

In June, a report by the Institute for Economics and Peace showed world peace declining for the seventh consecutive year since 2007, reversing a trend of improvement over decades.

The same group said in November deaths from militant attacks leapt 60 percent to an all-time high, primarily in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria, this at a time when the West's ability to respond militarily is constrained as Washington and its European allies cut defense budgets.

RUSSIAN ENIGMA

While Western policymakers hope Russia's economic crisis will curb Vladimir Putin's ambitions, others worry it could make him more unpredictable.

"It's not necessarily going to make Russia any better behaved," says Christopher Harmer, a former U.S. navy pilot now senior fellow at the Institute for Study of War.

NATO officials say the alliance would treat any aggression, even covert, in NATO member Baltic states as an act of war.

China is building up its military might. It lays claim to almost all the South China Sea, believed to be rich in oil and gas. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims.

In the East China Sea, a string of islets claimed by both China and Japan have strained ties severely.

Some officials and analysts say Western overstretch means a confrontation in one part of the world can encourage potential adversaries elsewhere to try their luck, a potential factor in North Korea's increased assertiveness.

Washington has accused Pyongyang of launching a cyber attack on Sony Pictures after its film on the fictional assassination of leader Kim Jong Un. North Korea has rejected the charge.

"The recent hack on Sony has highlighted the vulnerability of the West to the growing threat posed by cyber attack," said Alastair Newton, senior political analyst at Nomura.

    

MIDDLE EAST MAELSTROM

Washington's adversaries are becoming more adept at "ambiguous warfare", using deniable tactics or proxy forces such as the "little green men" in unmarked uniforms and vehicles the West says Russia deployed in Ukraine.

Covert tactics may no longer be enough to satisfy Israel it can slow Iran's nuclear program. With a mid-year deadline for a deal, some analysts believe Israel's government might launch a military strike to knock it back.

"If Iran agrees a deal, and that remains a big "if", that could constitute a trigger for such an event," said Nigel Inkster, former deputy chief of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) and now head of transnational threats at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.

He said much would depend on whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wins March elections and how hardline a coalition results.

On one threat, most of the world's powers are coalescing.

Pushing back Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is a high priority for western states, Gulf powers and Turkey, Russia and China.

Whether they can bridge differences on the fate of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, however, remains unclear.

Already some worry the anti-IS operation initially to safeguard minority refugees in northern Iraq is suffering "mission creep" as U.S. elections hove into view.

More than 1,000 members of the 82nd Airborne Division will deploy to Iraq in the New Year to help train Iraqi forces.

The first months of 2015 will also be key in tackling a very different foe: Ebola.

A major U.S. military deployment to build treatment centers in Liberia is credited with helping slow new cases there but the virus continues to spread in Sierra Leone and Guinea.       

"It really is an unusually broad range of challenges," said Kathleen Hicks, U.S. Principal Deputy Secretary of Defence for Policy from 2012-13 and now with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

2015：中國世紀元年？

經濟日報 社論

諾貝爾經濟學獎得主史提格里茲在美國《名利場》雜誌2015年1月號（提前出版）發表文章《中國世紀從2015年開始》。文章指出，在書寫2014年的歷史時，需要留意一個幾乎被忽視的重大事實：2014年是美國能夠號稱自己是全球第一大經濟體的最後一年。中國經濟以拔得頭籌之勢進入2015年，並很可能長時間執此牛耳。

史提格里茲說，世界銀行根據「購買力平價」方式公布的最新數據顯示，中國將以遠遠超乎所有人預料的速度成為世界第一大經濟體，此一目標即將於2014年底實現。

或許以「購買力平價」方式計算的GDP尚不為一般人廣泛接受，中國大陸官方也予以排斥，即使如此，但GDP之外，也有愈來愈多的類中國世紀現象在最近頻繁出現：

—國際外交方面，從中國作為主場的北京APEC峰會，到緬甸舉行的東盟峰會，再到澳洲舉行的G20峰會，中國領導人的鋒頭，獨領風騷；習近平上任兩年以來，累計出訪了30個國家，遍及七大洲、三大洋，從大國到新興國到太平洋小國，可謂縱橫捭闔。

—氣勢方面，開始積極主導議題：倡議與建立亞太自貿區、金磚新開發銀行、亞洲基礎設施投資開發銀行、一帶一路等，甚至引導及設定規格，如高鐵出口、浙江烏鎮舉行世界第一屆互聯網大會等。

—這一切靠的都是綜合國力。經濟上，除了GDP即將超美，2014年中國GDP已是日本的兩倍，出口額、貿易額、製造業、外匯儲備等，都是世界第一；軍事上，在東海中國已有針對美國介入的反介入能力，中國也在南海填海擴島。在印度洋廣設海港，甚至開始在西非的納米比亞興建港口；另外，也即將在泰國及尼加拉瓜分別開鑿兩條新運河。當然，也包括在太空領域的成就及深海科研領域的表現等，均已位居世界前段班。

如何解讀中國這近乎井噴式的全方位各領域的表現？其實並不困難，因為除了近200年，中國從來就是第一，也就是史提格里茲說的，「中國回到了它在人類歷史上大多數時間裡所占據的地位」。他所說的「大多數時間」，準確的說法是「人類3,000年歷史或30個世紀中的前28世紀」。

這裡，有三個問題需要處理：一、中國為什麼從來就是世界第一？二、為什麼從來第一的中國近200年卻急轉直下？三、為什麼近30年又谷底翻升，重新崛起？

先談第二、第三個，再談第一個。為何從來第一的中國國運會急轉直下，是因為中國在近幾百年中連續錯失了海洋、工業革命及資本主義市場經濟三個寶貴機遇，因而被抓住這三個機遇的近代九個海洋強國（葡、西、荷、英、德、法、俄、日、美）輪番欺壓。

其次，為什麼近30年又重新崛起，正是因為鄧小平的改革開放抓回了市場經濟及工業革命，而現在的習近平正在抓回海洋強國機遇。

至於中國為什麼從來就是全球第一，是因為中國從來就是市場經濟，意思是政府除了極少數經濟活動如鹽、鐵專賣、統一貨幣等之外均開放民營，對市場價格並不干預，最多是徵一些必要的稅賦及設平準基金，但必須補充一點，市場經濟並非放諸四海而皆有用，必須配上中國擁有的另兩個條件，即勤奮的民族性及巨大的人口規模，才能起大作用。

抓住了三個寶貴機遇的英國，在拿破崙戰爭及鴉片戰爭先後打敗了法國與中國後，稱霸全球，版圖橫跨全球四分之一，時間約100年，是謂英國世紀。19世紀末，美國GDP超過英國，但英國霸主地位完全被美國取代則是20世紀二次大戰之後的事。所以，20世紀是美國世紀，特別是1991年拖垮蘇聯之後，而那時中國剛開始啟動改革開放，所以美國獨領風騷，顧盼自雄。

進入21世紀，現在，中國世紀現象已然萌現，但21世紀會不會真的成為中國世紀，不能只看GDP，還要看包括政治體制改革在內的全面深化改革，及能否在文化、思想及意識形態各方面獲得更大的解放，及如何處理好國際特別是與美國的關係而定。這些條件能否具備也決定了「2015：中國世紀元年」後面跟的究竟是一個「！」或是一個「？」。

Top Malaysia Website

橱窗粉饰或掀小涨潮‧马股明年下半年振雄风

基金经理的年终粉饰橱窗活动，令马股有望出现小型年杪或新年涨潮。但在当前经济逆风衝击下，达证券预期明年上半年马股將承压，要到下半年才有望重振雄风，带动综指在明年杪迈向1915点目標。

达证券在《2015年市场展望》报告中指出，马股在明年上半年可能起伏不定，因为推行消费税带来不明朗因素、欧盟和日本面对通缩和担心美国提早升息。

无论如何，近期全球经济疲弱，应可让投资者放心於美国只会逐步升息，而外国投资者不会完全撤离新兴市场。

达证券表示，原油价格重挫令人们的可支配收入增加，欧元区量宽可能注入新鲜流动性、中国宽鬆政策以及日本持续展开的財政和货幣措施，將是强劲的外围催化因素，伴隨国內活动坚稳之下，推动马股明年走高。

大马明年经济 料可成长5%至6%

大马政府预测明年经济成长可达到5%至6%，加上政府持续进行结构重组，因此大马明年將可停留在外国投资者的投资雷达上。

达证券指出，市场和该行对明年企业盈利成长的预测分別为9.4%和8.3%，大致已反映目前的疲软经济局势和物价上升的压力。

“不过，如果油价持续下滑，欧洲和日本注入更多流动性、以及中国宽鬆/扩张政策令生產成本降低和外围需求升高，则马股企业盈利將有上调空间。”

由於明年4月推行消费税，全年通膨率料走高至4.3%，相比今年为3.3%，惟预料可在2016年正常化至3%水平。根据其它国家推行消费税的经验显示，企业的销量可能受影响，但由於调高售价，盈利应可得到缓冲。

美国经济强劲將促使联储局於明年第三季升息，但是预料美国將会逐步升息，以避免经济成长受打击。这可能导致马幣兑美元疲软，大马出口商將获正面影响，而进口商和高外债公司则受创。同时，为了保持出口竞爭力和內需，国行在2015年料不会升息。

2015年三大动力来源分別为：

1）推动成长的政策和国內活动保持、

2）6月公佈的第11大马计划將成为未来成长基石和

3）预期2016年紧缩货幣政策和持续结构重组，將吸引外资在2015年下半年流入。

至於明年的四大主要风险则分別为1）企业盈利继续令人失望、2）通膨压力、3）意外升息和4）全球经济和地缘政治震盪。

年杪涨潮不持久

马股综指在今年7月创下1896点新高之后，至今已回退7.7%，令投资者期望基金经理进行粉饰柜窗，而带来年杪或新年涨潮。

达证券指出，股市在12月份应可小幅上涨，推动综指接近1810点的年杪目標，但在目前的经济逆风下，不预期此涨潮可以持续。

马幣明年料可保持3.33

明年2月华人新年后可能会出现显著调整和巩固，直至低原產品价格、消费税和美国潜在升息的不明朗因素被消化之后，股市才会回稳。因此，预料2015年上半年股市將保持动盪和向下倾斜。跌势可在1635点获扶持，这是2008至2014年本益比中数14.7倍的水平，股市走势之后会在2015年下半年改善。

原產品价格疲软，財政赤字隱忧和马幣贬值，外资自9月杪开始成为净卖家，在8月份净流入1亿令吉之后，接下来3个月份別外流14亿、5亿和3亿令吉，今年首11月共外流39亿令吉，相比2012和2013年共净流入161亿令吉。由於油价持续下跌和马幣在明年上半年保持疲软，外资沽售的风险仍然存在。达证券相信明年马幣兑美元匯率平均应可保持在3.33水平，波幅介於3.25至3.50令吉之间。

综指预料可在明年下半年反弹，因为低油价对全球经济的正面衝击显现，令外需增加，將激励大马出口，最终推升马幣，以及吸引外资重返大马市场。

投资策略 上半年可趁低吸购

达证券指出，马股仍被视为抗跌股市，周息率达3.2%，以及政府相关基金参与股市的比重偏高。一旦股市在2015年上半年激烈波动，將带来趁低买进的良机。根据16倍本益比估值，综指明年杪的目標为1915点，相等於1.9倍股价/账面值。

马股目前的水平距离综指明年杪目標约有9%上升空间，可採取由下至上的策略以寻觅从马幣疲软、出口升高、燃油价走低和更高可支配收入中大幅受惠的成长股。

“明年我们首选的领域为科技/製造、电力/公用事业、產业和博彩。虽然我们对银行及油气业持中和立场，但仍挑选其中两只具实力的大资本股。”

国家能源（TENAGA,5347,主板贸服组）是大资本股中的首选，因该股將从低能源价格和国內活动升温中受益。至於联昌集团（CIMB,1023,主板金融组）在近期被拋售后，估值重现吸引力。同样的，沙肯石油（SKPETRO,5218,主板贸服组）具盈利成长潜能，在股价重挫后也浮现价值。

至於中型股首选则为怡保种植（IJMPLNT,2216,主板种植组）和马星集团（MAHSING,8583,主板產业组）。

Weak ringgit is good news for some sectors

A WEAK ringgit isn’t exactly bad news for everybody, especially for the exporting semiconductor and rubber gloves sector.

The dollar, which has strengthened by some 9% since August 2014 because of the drop in oil prices and the strength in the US economy, should make Malaysia’s exports more competitive relative to their global peers.

For the semiconductor sector, this is further buoyed by positive sales figures, particularly in October 2014 where global sales recorded the highest monthly level.

Global semiconductor sales hit US$29.6bil that month and has consistently been recording new highs over the past 18 months.

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics is now anticipating higher global semiconductor sales for 2014, 2015 and 2016 to US$333.bil, US$344.5bil and US$355.3bil respectively. This is an increase in forecasts by 2.4%, 2.5% and 1.4% respectively.

MIDF Research says the positive growth will be mainly attributable to higher demand from the smartphone and automotive industries.

“In the foreseeable term, the adoption of smartphones remains one of the key driving catalysts for the sector. The transition of 2G to 3G and 4G will inevitably create stronger demand for low to mid-priced smartphones, especially in emerging markets,” said MIDF Research.

MIDF’s picks are Unisem (M) Bhd and Globetronics Technology Bhd, as both are component suppliers and beneficiaries of the smartphone adoption.

Meanwhile AffinHwang Research’s prefered pick is Inari Amertron Bhd due to its position as a leading contractor for Avago, a market leader in the global RF space.

“Within our coverage universe, we forecast Inari’s earnings to be among the most resilient given strong growth in the smartphone and tablet space. it is also the most profitable listed semiconductor player locally,” says AffinHwang Reseach.

Hong Leong Investment Research pegs Inari’s a price-to-earnings (PE) of 13.75 times to the stock and estimates its PE to be 9.93 for the financial year ending June 30, 2015.

Inari makes components for smart mobile gadgets like iPhone 5a, iPad Air, Samsung Galaxy S5 and Xiaomi Mi-2.

Its biggest client is American Singaporean technology company Avago, which contributes more than 70% to Inari’s total sales.

In an effort to diversify its income base, the firm has moved into research, design and manufacturing of fibre optics related products.

Consensus target price for the stock is RM3.81, Bloomberg data shows.

Meanwhile, earnings for Globetronics continue to improve, with the company recording a 16.5% increase in earnings to RM17.7mil as of its third quarter earnings to Sep 30.

This improvement was mainly attributed to the higher topline contribution. On a nine-month basis, earnings increased 24.2% to RM49.1mil led by higher volume loadings from most its customer and improvement in profit margins.

At the same time, Globetronics’ cash balance increased by 13.9% to RM167.8mil. With borrowings of only RM8.1mil, this leaves the company in a net cash position of RM159.7mil.

Year-to-date, the group has declared dividend amounting to 18 sen which translates into a yield of 4.1%.

“Globetronics has been consistently delivering steady earnings growth by keeping pace with market demands. With a growing cash pile, we are confident that the company will continue its attractive dividend payout,” says MIDF Research which has a buy recommendation and a target price of RM5.45 based on a dividend discount model assumption.

Following a successful turnaround, Unisem is a beneficiary as it manufactures mircrochips that are used in electronic products. Having shut down its loss making plants, the company has now started on a clean slate with its production plants in Ipoh, Chengdu and Batam.

For its third quarter ended Sept 30 it returned to the black at RM27.12mil compared to a loss of RM648,000 a year earlier. Revenue came in 11% stronger at RM273.27mil for the same period.

Some Penang-based test equipment companies have also been projecting a good first quarter for 2015 riding on new customer orders and optimistic forecast for the test equipment and the light-emitting diode industry.

In a StarBiz article on Nov 3, Elsoft Research Bhd and Pentamaster Corp Bhd have received orders and enquiries for the first quarter.

This is typically against the first quarter trend, which is usually slower as most manufacturers would have put in orders before the Christmas season. Rubber product manufacturers Top Gloves Corp, Supermax Corp Bhd, Hartalega Holdings Bhd and condom manufacturer Karex Bhd are beneficiaries of the weaker ringgit.

AllianceDBS Research says it is upbeat on the rubber gloves sector as it offers resilient earnings growth while being relatively insulated from the rising cost of doing business, which is a recurring headache for most businesses in Malaysia, especially with the goods and services tax and a weaker ringgit.

Smaller rubber glove makers are also benefiting.

PN 17 status

Integrated Rubber Corp Bhd chairman Lim Boon Huat says that the US dollar appreciation is a clear positive for his company, which is on its way to steering itself out of Practice Note 17 status.

“The US dollar rise coupled with the reduction in oil prices is having a positive impact on our business,” he says.

“While 40% of our cost is in US dollars, as much as 95% of our revenue is on the dollar,” he adds.

Furthermore, glove makers are on an expansion spree with capacity expected to grow at a 3-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11%. In Hartalega’s case, it plans to double its capacity by 2017.

“We expect Malaysian glove makers to further gain global market share as has been in the past four years,” says AllianceDBS Research. AllianceDBS however, expects earnings of the rubber gloves sector to remain flat this year before growing by 16% per annum in 2015 and 2016 mainly driven by Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd and Hartalega.

“Hartalega and Kossan have the most resilient earnings profile among the glovemakers, making them viable alternatives to defensive stocks which are trading at relatively higher valuations,” it adds.

AllianceDBS has upgraded Hartalega with a higher target price of RM8.45, at a PE ratio of 22 times FY16 earnings. This target is derived by applying a 50% premium to the industry average of 15 times.

This valuation is similar to Top Glove, when it was still a bellwether stock for the sector in 2010.

It also has a buy call on Kossan with a target price of RM5.05, pegged on 18x PE 2015 earnings. It prefers the stock for its resilient earnings profile, and decent capacity CAGR of 11%.

OPEC is wrong to think it can outlast U.S. on oil prices

Give Saudi Arabia credit: Whoever sets oil-production policy for the desert kingdom has guts. Unfortunately, the sheiks have made what’s likely to become a sucker’s bet.

You know this part already, but the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last week declined to cut production, sending Brent crude oil futures tumbling to their cheapest point since 2009. The Saudis appear to be spoiling for a fight, trying to find out exactly how cheap oil must be to force surging U.S. shale-oil production to seize up like an unlubricated engine.

“Naimi declares price war on U.S. shale oil,” a Reuters headline shouted, referring to Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi.

But there are at least three big problems with this strategy. One, North American crude isn’t as expensive to produce as it used to be. Two, there’s more than you think in the pipeline to make it even cheaper. And third, OPEC nations, including Saudi Arabia, have squandered their edge in cheap oil supplies on welfare states rulers can’t easily cut back.

In 2012, when U.S. shale burst into public consciousness, common wisdom was that it would cost at least $70 to $75 a barrel to produce. As recently as last week, saying U.S. producers could tolerate $60 oil seemed aggressive.

But data from the state of North Dakota says the average cost per barrel in America’s top oil-producing state is only $42 — to make a 10% return for rig owners. In McKenzie County, which boasts 72 of the state’s 188 oil rigs, the average production cost is just $30, the state says. Another 27 rigs are around $29.

That’s part of why oil companies aren’t cutting capital spending much — and they say they can keep production rising without spending more, by getting more out of wells they have already drilled.

A key example is mega-independent Devon Energy DVN, +0.64%  , which produces about 200,000 of the 9 million-plus barrels the U.S. drills each day.

Devon wouldn’t give an interview, but said last month that it expects production to rise 20%-25% next year with little growth in capital spending. It has room to work because its pretax cash profit margins have widened by 37% in the first nine months of this year, to almost $30 per barrel of oil equivalent. More than half its 2015 production is protected by hedges if prices stay below $91 a barrel, the company says.

This trend toward efficiency will only get more pronounced, Lux Research analyst Daniel Choi suggests. Technology startups in energy exploration have raised $7 billion in the past decade, generating now-tiny companies that will use advances in seismic data collection and steam-assisted gravity drainage to lower costs even further. Companies such as Liquid Robotics and Laricina Energy are likely to get acquired before going public, but work like theirs will spread, Choi predicts.

Yes, it costs Saudi Arabia only about $2 a barrel to get crude CLF5, -1.77%  out of the ground. But analysts insist the Saudis’ real pain point is more than $100 a barrel — more than $30 higher than its price now — because of what they do with the money once they have it.

In 2010, for example, the Saudis spent $130 billion to combat the Arab Spring, the Persian Gulf Fund reports. Some of that money went for better education and health care, and a little for infrastructure. Then there was a 15% raise for government employees, higher unemployment benefits, a government-subsidized minimum wage hike and 500,000 new homes in a nation of 28 million people. It cost 30% of Saudi gross domestic product.

Exxon Mobil XOM, -0.58%  and Devon have no such burdens. Naimi’s strategy to squeeze North Dakota and Texas is a bet that in the long run, low prices will force a cut in production and a return to Saudi leverage. But it will be much easier to further trim North American production costs than to convince whole nations to eat less.

All this is early, and a snapback in demand could make everything markets think about oil moot. And just because technology changes a market doesn’t mean emerging players are great stock bets — for every Expedia EXPE, +2.01% there’s a Travelocity. The drop in oil shares now makes sense; these stocks should be on sale while things play out.

But OPEC still looks like a late-1990s company caught in Harvard Business School professor Clay Christensen’s “Innovator’s Dilemma” — so married to once-innovative business models, it couldn’t adjust when technology re-engineered their industries. Think of the Saudi welfare state as oil’s brick-and-mortar stores: integral to an old business model, unsustainable in the new.

OPEC’s Naimi ought to read the “Innovator’s Dilemma.” Barnes & Noble BKS, +7.61%  has a comfy chair waiting.

房產项目价格低 马星值得投资

受政府打房政策影响，大马房產市场上半年开始出现下跌趋势，原本寄望下半年市场需求会更为强劲，无奈国行收紧贷款以致消费者难以取得房贷，发展商和消费者情绪下滑，2014年可谓发展商经营环境相当艰苦的一年。

　根据瑞士信贷集团（Credit Suisse，简称瑞信）报告，投资者在这个艰难的环境下应物色遭低估且稳健，以及有建设可负担房屋的发展商来投资。

　“巴生谷房產计划的认购率在今年上半年最稳健。相较于柔佛的53%至56%之间，以及檳城的47%至52%之间，巴生谷的62%至73%似乎更稳健。檳城房產的认购率下跌，主要因为发展商的房產推介价格太高，但檳城房市前景依然是相当不错的。”

盈利可见度很重要

　在上半年，价格100万令吉以下的房產，认购率依然相当不错，维持在72%至76%之间；房价在100万令吉以上的房產，认购率只有在55%左右。

　除了国內情绪疲软，以及贷款批准更为严谨，消费税的落实也將重挫发展商赚幅，考虑到多种不利因素，瑞信认为净利的可见性是相当重要的。

　“我们认为，巴生谷依然是最稳健的，其次为檳城和柔佛；在贷款紧缩的环境下，房价低于100万令吉的房產认购率会较高。”

　该行认为，马星集团（MAHSING，8583，主要板房產）是不错的投资选择。

马星巴生谷房產 最可负担

根据2014年大马家庭收入初步调查显示，大马整体家庭收入从2012年至今成长了18%，假设每个州属的成长率为10%，估计巴生谷购房者可负担的房產价格在68万2000令吉至83万3000令吉之间，柔佛则在45万2000令吉水平，以及檳城为49万令吉。

　“根据发展商最新的销售和房產推出数据来看，我们估计马星旗下房產项目价格最低，巴生谷每单位平均价为59万3000令吉，落在该地区人民的可负担范围之內。”

　不过，马星旗下柔佛房產是52万9000令吉，檳城为60万令吉；比柔佛和檳城购房者能力高出17%至22%。

　另一方面，东家（E&O，3417，主要板房產）的房產计划属于豪华档次，普遍价格在100万令吉以上。

　其他发展商在巴生谷的房產计划则是中高档次，实达集团和怡保工程置地（IJMLAND，5215，主要板房產）房產价格在可负担范围內，UEM阳光（UEMS，5148，主要板房產）和IOI房產（IOIPG，5249，主要板房產）则是超出能力范围的4%至8%。

　在檳城方面，实达集团和怡保工程置地皆超出当地人能力范围的28%至83%。但怡保工程置地在该区域的住宅房屋已全数售出，目前放眼发展商业房產。

　在柔佛，实达集团、怡保工程置地、UEM阳光和IOI房產4家发展商的房產价格都超出可负担范围的12%至74%。

城镇发展项目 反应佳

开发大幅土地或是以城镇（Township）方式开发，能让发展商针对目前的市场策略，弹性推出房產项目，IOI房產、马星和怡保工程置地在这方面的弹性极佳，获瑞士信贷集团看好。

　“IOI房產主要为城镇发展商，城镇项目佔了地库的83%或8365英亩，目前在发展的城镇分別落在巴生谷、柔佛和芙蓉。”

　马星近期收购了多块大面积土地来发展新重要城镇，这些城镇计划分別位于巴生谷和柔佛等地，佔了总地库的80%。

　“怡保工程置地的主要城镇计划，Bandar Rimbayu和Seremban 2的反应都相当热烈，首次在柔佛推出的房產计划也取得很不错成绩。这3项计划佔公司土地73%，公司弹性，主要来自土地区域的多样化。”

　此外，UEM阳光在推出一系列计划都相当具有弹性，但主要缺点是土地过于集中在柔佛，担心会出现供过于求的现象。实达集团虽有一定的弹性，但领导层的更换，可能会导致公司缺乏明確目標。

Malaysia retailers contend with weaker sales

Malaysia retailers contended with weaker sales in recent months on cautious consumer sentiment, The Edge Malaysia business and investment weekly (Edge Weekly) reported in its latest December 1-7 issue.

Edge Weekly, quoting retailers and shopping mall owners, reported that rising cost of living, and concerns over the planned implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) had affected buyer sentiment. The GST will be implemented starting April 1, 2015.

According to Edge Weekly, while it appeared that parking lots at shopping malls were full, this was not a sign that people were shopping. Shopping mall owners were quoted as saying patronage increase at their premises was not reflected in sales volume.

Tan Sri Teo Chiang Kok, whose family owns a controlling stake in the 1 Utama Shopping Centre, said retail tenants, which had been hit hardest were those involved in fashionable and non-essential items.

Teo said retail sales declined due to higher cost of living. “People are feeling poorer because the cost of living is rising. Hence, their budget for discretionary spending is reduced. Consumers are tightening their belts,” he said.

It is worth noting that sales of essential items like food and beverage had also decreased.

Edge Weekly quoted Mydin Mohamed Holdings Bhd managing director Datuk Wira Ameer Ali Mydin as saying same store sales at his stores fell in the six months ended September 30, 2014.

The Mydin group runs hypermarkets, mini-markets and convenience stores, which target the middle to lower-income group.

“For the first time in 25 years, overall same store sales are down. Our same store growth is down 5%. Everything is down. Even (sales) of basic (items) are down 3%,” Ameer said when asked whether consumers were shopping less.

Basic items refer to essential goods like milk, sugar and flour.

For a better understanding on the Malaysian retail backdrop and its challenges, kindly pick up and read the latest issue of the Edge Weekly.

Addicted to debt

MALAYSIAN households face a pivotal moment.

As the economic environment turns against their favour on the back of rising interest rates and higher cost of living, many households in the country will find themselves in a vulnerable position because of their high level of indebtedness.

Further setbacks for many Malaysian households are their limited savings and relatively low income – a situation that will surely exacerbate their vulnerability to various shocks such as a loss of job or health emergencies. For instance, the decline in the prices of commodities such as crude palm oil and rubber is already hitting the livelihoods of rural households hard.

Previous studies suggest that Malaysians have racked up so much debt that most of them have been spending a large portion of their monthly income just to pay back their loans.

Last year, the debt-service-ratio of households in Malaysia stood at 43.5%, which means households in the country on average use more than two-fifths of their monthly disposable income to service their loans. What’s even more disturbing is the estimated debt-service-ratio of civil servants in the country at around 60%.

The acceptable level of debt-service-ratio is up to 30%, implying that a sound financial position is when a household is not spending more than one third of his income on debt repayment.

High consumerism, low wage

A recent study by Khazanah Research Insitute (KRI) on the state of households in Malaysia also paints a worrying picture.

The report, entitled simply “The State of Households”, shows that consumerism is high in Malaysia, with many households owning discretionary durable goods such as television, washing machines, refrigerators, cars and motorcycles, despite their relatively low-income levels.

Most households in the country cannot actually afford to buy all those high valued items with cash; so, they are doing so on credit.

“The wealthiest pay by cash; the better-off choose credit based on interest rates and the least well-off choose based on what is on offer and the instalment payments they can afford,” KRI says in its report.

“But the reality is that the buyer pays more than a quarter of the purchase price in interest payments. The problem is most acute with consumer durables – rates are almost 50% per year,” the research arm of sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional Bhd says of the impact of “ansuran mudah” (affordable instalment schemes) on households.

Official statistics show that the median household income in Malaysia currently stands at only RM3,626 per month.

For the low-income group, who makes up the bottom 40% of Malaysia’s society, the median household income is only RM1,852 per month, while that for the middle 40% is at RM4,372.

The better off, who make up the top 20% of the country’s households, earn a median income of RM9,796 per month.

KRI’s study gives further insight into the state of household income in the country: despite Malaysia’s rapid economic growth in the last two decades, 74% of the country’s households are still earning less than RM6,000 a month. Those who earn less than RM4,000 a month make up 55% of the country’s households, while 23% of households in the country make less than RM2,000 a month.

At the individual level, KRI says, the median monthly salaries and wages is only RM1,700.

This, it notes, is consistent with data from the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), which shows 62% of the fund’s active members earn less than RM2,000 per month, and 96% earn less than RM6,000 per month.

KRI’s study confirms the notion that lower income groups have a higher propensity to consume, and less propensity to save.

“Increasing their incomes may lead to more consumption and higher growth. If their consumption falls because they can no longer service their debt due to rising costs (as happened in the US in their Great Recession), it can be very bad for the economy,” the institute points out.

Economists tell StarBizWeek that the relatively low-income level of many Malaysian households is a constraining factor to make private consumption, a main component of gross domestic product (GDP), a driver of growth.

While the availability of cheap credit amid low interest rates in recent years have encouraged more private spending, which ultimately helped boost the country’s economy, debt-driven private consumption is not sustainable.

Economists explain that households who have borrowed too much in relation to their income may eventually have to trim their spending, and this could potentially drag economic growth. Conversely, they note, households’ debt burdens would become lighter if their incomes could rise at a faster pace, and that would be a positive factor to the economy.

KRI’s study, however, finds that wage growth in Malaysia has consistently lagged behind productivity growth. It notes the trend is symptomatic of the lack of bargaining power of low-skilled labour and the country’s over-reliance on low cost as competitive advantage.

Potential crisis

As at the end of 2013, Malaysia’s household debt is valued at 86.8% of the country’s GDP, which is a substantial increase from 60.4% of GDP in 2008.

While economists have long voiced their concern of the potential risks of Malaysia’s high household debt to the country’s growth, Bank Negara has brushed aside such concerns, saying that household debt in Malaysia remains at a manageable level as household financial assets have been expanding in tandem.

According to the central bank, total household assets in Malaysia had been growing at an average annual rate of 10.4% over the last 10 years to 321.6% of GDP at end-2013. It believes the high level of household financial assets could mitigate macro risks.

Although KRI’s study finds that households earning less than RM3,000 a month account for a “relatively low” share of the total household debt in Malaysia, the institute points out that borrowings by this low-income group are proportionately higher than the rest at seven times their annual income.

“The pressing concern is how much debt low-income households have taken on relative to their ability to pay. They spend most of their income and have little savings, making them susceptible to financial stress should interest rates and inflation continue to rise,” KRI highlights.

As Mark Billington, the regional director of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) Southeast Asia, puts it: “Allowing credit growth to offset weak wage growth in lower earnings groups may ultimately raise the number of non-performing loans. That, in turn, could result in increased risks of another financial crisis.”

In conjunction with the release of ICAEW’s latest quarterly “Economic Insight: South East Asia”, Billington says domestic consumption as a share of GDP in most countries in the region is still considered low by international standards.

He notes that while the retail banking sector has facilitated a gradual increase in domestic consumption, which helps to rebalance Asean economies between production for export and for domestic consumption, he cautions economies with already high consumption rates to take care to avoid artificially raising the standard of living (through debts) due to the potential danger of triggering a crisis.

To Bank Negara’s credit, though, efforts have been taken to control the increase of household debt and financial imbalances in the country. Recent years have seen the central bank implementing various macro-prudential measures, including stricter loan guidelines.

In addition, Bank Negara has started the process of interest-rate normalisation after a prolonged period of a low-rate environment. In July, the central bank raised the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 3.25% - the first increase in three years – stressing the need to address destablising financial imbalances in the economy.

Cheap money

The International Monetary Fund, World Bank and HSBC are among some of the international organisations that have warned Malaysia over the high level of its household debt.

But obviously, the problem is not unique to Malaysia, as several countries in the Asian region have also seen a dangerous spike in household debts in recent years, thanks to the availability of “cheap money” as central banks all over the world cut interest rates to boost their economies to counter the impact of the 2008/09 global financial crisis.

As it stands, Malaysia’s debt-to-GDP-ratio is the highest in Asia. Trailing closely behind is South Korea at 86%, followed by Thailand at 84% and Taiwan at 82%.

Debt-fuelled consumption in many Asian economies may have helped boost growth in recent years. But as the current economic environment shifts, with central banks starting the tightening cycle amid a highly uncertain global economy, many countries in the region may well be facing a new danger.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, the theme of late is whether a new financial crisis is brewing in Asia because of the region’s high debt levels.

Optimists will dismiss such notion, but it will be foolhardy to ignore the region’s exposure to such risks, for when the next crash comes, many households indeed will be hit hard.

Ringgit down to four-and-half-year low

The ringgit has fallen to a fresh multi-year low against the US dollar, as sentiment has been somewhat dented by Malaysia’s shrinking current account surplus and slower economic growth in the third quarter of 2014.

At 5pm yesterday, the ringgit was being traded at 3.3565 against the greenback – the weakest level since May 2010. The ringgit is the second-worst performer in the region after the Singapore dollar so far this year. Over the last two weeks, it had declined 2% against the greenback.

Bank Negara, however, dismissed any notion that the narrowing current account surplus is a matter of concern.

“At this stage, with our current account surplus standing at about 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), it is considered a good sign… it is still positive,” Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said.

“It (current account surplus) is actually better than we expected because we (had earlier) thought that the rapid investment growth (in the country) would actually result in (current account) deficits in some quarters. But it did not (happen),” Zeti told reporters after delivering a keynote address at the inaugural International Statistical Institute Regional Statistics Conference here yesterday.

Analysts said the narrowing current account surplus put Malaysia in a less favourable position compared with the other countries.

“Malaysia’s narrowing current account surplus puts it in a relatively less appealing position compared with some of its peers in the region, amid a volatile environment where foreign investors are already looking to withdraw their funds from emerging markets to developed nations,” said an economist with a local bank-backed investment bank.

“The dollar is rising broadly against most major currencies in the world in anticipation of the United States tightening its monetary policy stance, involving a rise in its interest rates, next year.”

Malaysia’s GDP growth had slowed to 5.6% in the three months to September from 6.5% in the preceding quarter, according to data released last Friday.

It was disclosed that the country’s current account surplus had narrowed sharply to RM7.6bil, or 2.8% of GDP, in the third quarter from RM16bil, or 6.1% of GDP, in the second quarter, due mainly to lower goods trade surplus and larger deficits in the services, income and transfer accounts.

However, for the nine months to end-September this year, Malaysia’s current account surplus stood wider at RM43.4bil, or 5.5% of GDP, compared with RM25.1bil, or 3.5% of GDP, in the first nine months of 2013.

An economist said that the fear amongst currency traders was that Malaysia’s long streak of surplus since late-1998 might be broken, leading the country to a twin-deficit situation.

Malaysia has already been running on fiscal deficits for the past 16 years. Its fiscal-deficit-to-GDP ratio stood at 3.9% last year.

A narrowing of Malaysia’s current account surplus would give rise to concerns about the risk of the country slipping into twin deficits, a situation where an economy is running both fiscal and current deficits.

An economy with twin deficits is particularly vulnerable to capital reversals, which could impact the value of its currency, as was the case with India and Indonesia last year when their financial markets and currencies took a huge battering, as investors withdrew from emerging economies with twin deficits, because these countries were deemed to be structurally weak.

However, the countries have seen an appreciation in their currencies this year, as investors were optimistic of structural reforms in the economy.

The consensus view among economists is that the country’s current account surplus would narrow through 2015, driven by lower goods trade surplus and continued deficits in the services account.

On concerns of weaker exports next year weighing on the country’s current account, Zeti said the diversification of Malaysian exports in terms of markets and products had resulted in 60% of the country’s exports being destined for the Asian region, which remained the growth centre of the world.

Zeti pointed out that most of the region’s economies were no longer export-led but driven more by domestic demand, thanks to various reform initiatives that have been made in recent years.

“Most of Malaysia’s exports now are for final demand, and not for re-exports to third countries,” she said.

On falling crude oil prices, Zeti said Malaysia would need to make an assessment on whether the decline of the commodity was due to temporary factors, or a permanent trend.

“The trend (of falling oil prices) has just begun, so we are monitoring it closely to see where it (oil price) will settle,” she said.

More Bumi households in lowest income category, Khazanah study finds

Bumiputeras have higher proportions of households earning less than RM2,000 a month, compared with ethnic Chinese and Indians, Khazanah Research Institute (KRiS) said on Monday in a research book on the state of households in Malaysia.

Comparatively, Chinese and Indian households have a higher proportion of households earning more than RM5,000 per month, based on 2013 statistics obtained from the Department of Statistics (DoS).

In total, 23 per cent of total Malaysian households earn less than RM2,000 a month, 55 per cent less than RM4,000 a month and 74 per cent less than RM6,000 a month.

26 per cent of Bumiputera households and 32 per cent of households in the residual category other than the three main ethnic communities in Malaysia, earn less than RM2,000 per month.

Chinese and Indian households which earn less than RM2,000 stand respectively at 14 per cent and 20 per cent.

The KRiS study also found that lower income households tend to be disproportionately affected by rising food and utility prices as they spend more on food, housing and utilities compared to households earning more than RM5,000.

The vast majority of Malaysian households (4.36 million/74 per cent) earn less than RM6,000 per month and it is this household bracket most affected by the rise of food prices compared to the country’s top 9.7 per cent of households which earn more than RM10,000 monthly.

“The less a household can spend, the higher the proportion of its expenditure on food, housing and utilities, and the more it is affected by a rise in the prices of these,” KRiS managing director Datuk Charon Mokhzani said.

新加坡家债高筑成经济地雷

CNBC.com 报道指出，相较全球经济走缓，新加坡经济表现尚称平稳，但这是靠著新加坡家庭债台高筑交换而来的，这已成为新加坡的心头大患。

瑞银（UBS）追踪东南亚与印度的资深经济学家提瑟（Edward Teather）在最近发表的报告中指出，新加坡的超低利率，助长了消费者非理性支出或投资决策的风险，一旦美国利率攀升，这样的决策恐怕令人痛悔，新加坡国民信贷金额占国內生產总值（GDP）比，现在较1990年代晚期为高。

占去年GDP的76.8%

根据新加坡政府资料，新加坡家庭负债到了今年第二季末总计约2千863.9亿新元，约占去年 GDP 3千728.1亿新元的76.8%。

提瑟指出，新加坡这几年信用扩张值得注意，不只因为国民的银行信贷之名目金额增加，更因这次扩张发生在 GDP 成长疲弱的背景下。

新加坡今年第三季 GDP 年增2.4%，与前季年增率相同，较去年 GDP 成长率3.9%来得小。

不过不是所有人皆预测利率上升將使新加坡经济自食恶果。穆迪分析经济学家陈志雄指出，新加坡人储蓄颇丰，尤其中央公积金（CPF）退休账户存了很多钱，形成相当良好的安全网，新加坡家庭债务总金额固然高，但风险並不高。

不过，陈志雄对新加坡房市有所担忧，他表示，最大问题在於债务扩大牵涉到房市，房市景气走衰对新加坡经济的损伤將比任何升息措施举动来得大。

大马离先进国有多远？

日前，巫统元老兼话望生区国会议员东姑拉沙里將一篇长达7页的《告国会议员书》发给了所有的国会议员。他在这份文件中表达了对於目前国家的经济状况感到担忧的看法。他亦指出，政府在2015年的財政预算案当中，所预测的明年度经济成长率可达到5至6%，是明显的过於乐观。

他所提出的论据有四点：1.政府的庞大財政开支。2.政府对公共服务领域给予过多的拨款。3.国家债务过高，导致政府承担太大的债务负担。4.过度依赖农產品的进口，使外匯大量流失。据此，他表示对於目前的经济状况感到害怕，並提出我国的经济体系需要在未来的5年至10年內转型，而且有必要重组现有的经济制度。

这些提议，犹如醍醐灌顶，让人对他忧国忧民的情怀刮目相看。而令人关注的是，国家的经济真的到了如此不堪的地步吗？真的会步上一些东西欧国家的后尘，因为国债过高而频临破產的边缘吗？

对此，首相纳吉有话说。他在国会回答甲洞区国会议员陈胜蕘的附加提问时，就表示大马政府债务占国內生產总值约53%，相比起其他国家来得低，所以不会对国家经济带来威胁，反之其他国家也羡慕我国的经济表现。言下之意，自信满满。

笔者觉得，这可能是由於他对於大马对外贸易，尤其是与中国的双边贸易和经济往来的密切，所带来的互惠互利的效应感到极度的乐观有关。起码，在亚洲一条经济大龙的照射下，会连锁性的带动整个区域的经济发展，尤其是对大马而言更是提供了一个极其有利的大环境，使到经济前景一片大好。

即使如此乐观，笔者认为，东姑拉沙里的建言与担忧，是应该受到重视的。因为，2020年宏愿是否能够真正的落实，要看这未来六年的经济发展成效而定。大马是否能够如期的在2020年成为先进国呢？

在近数十年来，一般的经济学家对於先进国的发展程度和高度，都有一套的测量標准。

何谓先进国呢？

根据经济学家的描绘，一个成功的先进国都会有以下的指標和景观。在一个先进国內，国民的教育程度相当高，人人充份就业，在政治上信奉与实行自由和民主的制度，国民高收入的宽鬆花费能力，经济上有能力大量消费，到达民生乐利的阶段，人民在福利制度下都受到良好的照顾，社会也稳定的发展，生活上所需的基本设施完备，而且国民之间的贫富差距不大。这些指標都是一个先进国所必须具备的条件。北欧的诸多福利国就是人人称羡，在二次大战以来被许多发展中国家视为典范的先进国。

但是，在近年来，这许多的所谓先进国却在国际经济的大环境下，纷纷面对经济衰退的重大打击，从经济的高潮中滑落至目前的低潮，需要重新出发。所以，我们这些发展中的国家若要成为先进国是需要重新界定所谓的“先进”的定义。起码，在所谓高收入的门槛方面须重新界定。

例如，前首相马哈迪医生所提出的2020宏愿是要令大马成为一个先进国，而在若干年后，至今所要达到的是要成为一个高收入的国家。无疑，我们可以达成在预算中的高收入增加，但是在货幣贬值和通货膨胀率高企之下，高收入的经济效益都被大大的抵消了。如在10年前的每月收入为3千令吉，也勉强可算是高收入，可是以目前来说这已被视为低收入群了。

所以虽然经济数字达標，但实际上的所谓高收入则已被腐蚀了。

在这种情况下，大马的经济目標可说是缺乏了一种真正的高效益，而只是在描绘出虚幻的前景。虽然不是海市唇楼，但一般人民的生活素质仍然在原地踏步，离开先进国的目標还远得很呢！

通膨‧下轮金融风暴元凶？

2008年9月15日，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）宣佈申请破產保护，为隨即而来的2008年全球金融危机拉开序幕。转眼间，6年时间已经过去，全球经济与金融条件目前又处於甚么样的状况呢？与6年前相比，今天的各国政府与金融机构是否已经吸取了过去金融危机所带来的教训？

在2008年全球金融危机引发经济大衰退以来，全球多国政府不断陆续向市场注入巨额资金，企图通过宽鬆的货幣政策改善市场的流动性。

然而，在长时间的宽鬆货幣政策下，全球资產价格持续不合理地飆升；信贷风险也逐渐再崭露头角，全球无论是家债、国债都比2008年前的情况更严重；还有挥之不去的失业问题以及地缘政治危机。从种种跡象来看，下一场金融危机似乎已离我们不远。

在首要领导基金会（Perdana Leadership Foundation）所主办的第六届首席执行员论坛上，市场专家普遍上都给出一个结论：金融危机將会再次捲土重来！只不过是时间与衝击的问题而已。

既然如此，投资者与企业要如何应付这场来临的风暴呢？大马又是否已经对此作好准备？《投资致富》本期將作出详细报道。

综观金融歷史，人类共经歷过6次的全球性大型危机，即1792年美国金融危机；1825年英国股市恐慌；1857年金融危机；1907年大恐慌；1929年大萧条；以及刚过的2008年全球金融危机。

前国行副总裁丹斯里林西彦在该论坛上指出，市场可从过去这6次的金融危机中吸取到3个教训：金融体系甚少不存在漏洞、“大到不能倒”的问题持续存在以及如何將风险回归予私人领域。

回顾2008年的全球金融危机，金融体系所面临的其中一个弱点，便是来自於美国高企的债务，最终引发房市泡沫。

然而，6年过去了，目前全球金融体系的情况似乎没有获得太大的改善。新丰尼生活（SYMLIFE，1538，主板產业组）执行主席丹斯里阿兹曼雅哈耶透露，全球债务在截至2013年为止已经超越了100兆美元，而当中有超过半数来自於全球各国的公债，高达54兆美元，甚至比2008年全球金融风暴前的水平还要高。

公私都曝露高桿槓的风险中

这与1997年亚洲金融风暴时期的情况有所不同。当时虽然私人领域方面存在著许多问题与弱点，但政府的资產负债表基本上都相当稳健，而现在的情况却是公私双方都曝露於高桿槓的风险中。

更令人担忧的是，阿兹曼雅哈耶指称全球各国政府的財政赤字每年达到约4兆美元，因此全球公债水平预计將会在未来继续攀升。

安永（EY）亚太区金融服务资深合伙人博尔森对此抱持相似的看法，並称目前“大到不能倒”的不再侷限於各大银行，反而是各国政府及中行。

“作为例子，中国持有巨量的美国政府债券、日本债券、欧元区债券等。当中国经济陷入危机之际，你认为只有中国本身受到影响吗？”他相信如今银行领域所暴露的风险已经不高，但相反的是中行的处境却岌岌可危。

安永大马区合伙主管拿督阿都拉夫便直言，综观目前的全球课题，共有8个导火线有可能成为引发下一轮全球金融危机的元凶，包括股市泡沫、中国银行业不良贷款、能源危机、新房市泡沫、企业倒闭、地缘政治危机、贫穷危机以及由量化宽鬆以及恶性通膨所引发的现金危机。

阿兹曼雅哈耶也认为，通膨是引爆下一轮全球金融危机的潜在导火线。他指出，考虑到目前美国的公债过於庞大，美国在无法偿还的情况下可能需要通过违约、紧缩、通膨等方案来降低债务水平，而他相信最有可能发生的情况还是通膨。

阿兹曼雅哈耶举例，美国在1946年期间的债务占国內生產总值（GDP）共高达108.6%，隨后在近10年的高通膨下降低了约40%。

有鑑於现今美国的公债共有约50%是由外国债权人所持有，因此在通膨风险的衝击下，债权人或因丧失信心而大幅拋售美债，进而导致金融市场崩溃。

全球失业人口逐年上攀

与此同时，虽然在全球政府积极刺激经济增长的努力下，全球就业市场已从2008年金融危机引发的经济大衰退中逐渐改善，但全球失业人口还是从2012年开始逐年上攀，並於2013年超越2亿人的水平，未来4年亦相信会继续恶化下去。

总结而言，林西彦认为虽然已经距离2008年全球金融危机长达6年时间，但金融体系要真正脱离危机仍有很长的一段路要走。他相信来临全球將会陆续发生许多中至小型的危机，而发生大规模金融危机的风险则会持续笼罩著全球。

金融体系比2008年风暴前
更缺乏应急工具

更糟糕的是，大马策略及国际研究院（ISIS）副首席执行员黄正明认为现今的金融体系比2008年风暴前更缺乏应急工具。除了较6年前更高的债务水平以外，目前全球的利率水平处於低水平，而且货幣政策普遍宽鬆，导致当下一轮金融危机发生时，各国或已没有空间再进一步降息来刺激经济增长。

“无论如何，现今整体的状况也並非一面倒都是利空因素，好消息是全球经济火车头正在转移中。”阿兹曼雅哈耶指出，新兴经济体的崛起將会在未来支撑全球一定程度的增长，进而降低金融危机爆发后所引发的衝击。

他表示，全球共407个新兴城市对全球经济增长的贡献预计会从2007年时仅有的16%，到2025年大幅提高至44%。同时，中国与印度的中產阶层预计会在2025年达到10亿人的人数，显示出新兴经济体逐渐壮大的趋势，有望成为全球金融市场的救命稻草。

企业须强化本身对金融危机防护

综合各路专家的意见后，可见下一轮的全球金融危机的降临已经是必然的事情，而如今的问题应该是：大马是否已经准备好迎接这场风暴呢？

阿都拉夫依据安永的一项调查结果指出，从经常账户、公债、外债、通膨、信贷增长、进口覆盖以及货幣走势7个角度来看，大马在一眾快速成长市场（RGM）中属於最低风险群之一。无论如何，他还是提醒大马还是需在公债、外债、通膨、信贷增长及货幣走势方面多加关注。

国库控股研究院（KRiS）董事经理拿督查伦莫札尼表示，在经歷过1997年亚洲金融风暴和2008年全球金融危机后，大马基本上已经吸取了一定的教训，包括不过度依赖外债、加强国內的银行体系以及改善企业治理水平。

查伦莫札尼相信，以大马现今的条件来看，绝对有能力应付1997年亚洲金融风暴。

“问题是，危机永远都是无法预测的，我们无法预知下一轮出现的新挑战是甚么，所以也更难去避免它。”

从亚洲的宏观角度来看，阿兹曼雅哈耶亦表示整体亚洲目前的资產负债表其实比1997年亚洲金融风暴前夕来得更为健康。“虽然我们不懂下一轮的金融危机会在何时爆发，但我们必须做好准备，將大马置放於一个更有利的位置中。”

他透露，大马必须从5方面强化本身对金融危机的防护：

第一，避免来自信贷宽鬆的诱惑以及影子银行的泛蓝；

第二，政府针对性的开销以降低公债水平；

第三，巩固国际储备金；

第四，社会结构的改革；

以及第五，解决社会不平等的现象，包括同等的机会、適当的税务架构等。

应整合津贴补助金

此外，黄正明认为大马目前缺乏“公共韧性”（Public Resilience），其中最主要的问题在於政府长年来对企业过於呵护，因此只能倾向於从家庭下手以增加收入。他建议政府將现有的津贴与补助金进行整合，从而为国內低收入群体建立一道社会安全网。

查伦莫札尼对此抱持赞同的態度，特別是针对收入不平等的课题上。他以美国作为例子，收入最低的95%美国公民倾向於通过贷款来消费，因此一旦政府收紧贷款条例，或消费者停止借贷，整个经济將会因此而停滯下来。

另一个必须留意的风险，在於大马过於依赖油气收入此单一的项目。大马评估机构（MARC）首席经济学家诺札希迪表示，大马便是基於上述原因而在去年被评级机构惠誉（Fitch）下调主权信贷评级，因此建议政府必须加强其它的收入来源，以减轻对油气领域的依赖程度。

趁低累积资產

面对潜在的全球金融危机风险，国家担保基金（Danajamin）莫哈默纳兹里表示最理想的解决方案是对货幣风险、利率风险和大眾商品价格风险进行对衝，只不过在现实中还是较难以合理的价格来对衝，因此关键还是需要在资產与负债间取得良好的平衡，而拥有充裕的现金除了有助企业渡过危机以外，也可让企业在市道低迷时趁低累积资產。

他同时建议大马企业可通过出口及增设分行的方式，將业务扩张至区域市场，以降低国內环境的营运风险。

对此，博尔森相信即將来临的东盟经济共同体（AEC）將会是有利於大马企业对抗潜在风暴的因素之一。该协议將对区域內的贸易注入更多的活力，是企业增长的一大推动力。

野村（Nomura）大马资產管理董事经理诺雷甄娜表示，大马企业必须意识到如今所面对的竞爭不再侷限於国內而已，而是一个跨国界的区域市场。有鑑於此，如何提高竞爭能力以及创新能力將会是大马企业需完成的功课。

对个人而言，诺雷甄娜则建议民眾致力於开源节流，若能力可及的话確保无时无刻都在进行著投资，並且多元化本身的投资组合。

企业应对危机5C

危机处理，永远是所有企业管理层必修的一门课，只因企业时时刻刻都有可能陷入未知的危机中。而企业能否从危机中存活下来，往往就取决於管理层如何应对危机。

捷运公司（MRT Corp）首席执行员拿督威拉阿兹哈便就此提出5C来应对危机。值得一提的是，捷运公司早前便陷入一场危机，因工程意外导致3名工人身亡，面临群眾的压力与指责。

1.面对现实（Confront Reality）

儘管人们都在尽可能避免危机的发生，但並不代表在危机发生时加以否认，逃避眼前的事实。

当危机降临之际，最关键的还是企业必须勇於面对现实，承认危机的存在。只有在承认危机过后，管理层才能够进一步作出相应的应对措施，包括在短期存活与长期增长间寻找平衡点、重新对旗下业务作出评估等等。

除了在下一轮金融危机爆发的时候面对现实，大马企业也应该醒觉瞭解如今市场爆发金融危机的潜在风险，並从现在开始作出適当的准备，未雨绸繆，方可在危机真正出现时生存下来。

2.创意（Creativity）

在確认了危机的存在后，企业接下来的应对动作，讲求的將是创意，比如在產品上发挥创意，推出革命性的创新產品，亦或在生產过程下手，以创意方式提高生產效率。

拥有强韧灵活性的企业，普遍上將会较臃肿呆板的企业更能够承受危机的衝击，皆因高灵活性的企业更能够因应不同的环境而作出改变，甚至有能力在艰难的环境下也创造出价值，把“危”转为“机”。

3.勇气（Courage）

每当危机出现，所有眼光都將会移到管理层身上。在承受著庞大压力的当儿，管理层又是否有足够的勇气，去作出可能引起爭议的决定，並勇於承担该决定所带来的后果呢？

对此，威拉阿兹哈便直言：“当危机降临时，无法作出任何决定，比作出错误的决定来得更糟糕。”

在危机来临的时候，企业可能必须作出某些牺牲，譬如搁置某些核心发展计划、或脱售某些资產。若能够壮士断臂，果断地作出適当的牺牲，除了可加强企业存活下来的几率，在市场好转时也更易於企业的復甦。

4.沟通（Communication）

在一家企业面对危机时，那並不只是管理层的课题而已，而是需要企业上下所有人齐心协力一同跨越。因此，良好且有效率的沟通，以便所有阶层的僱员都能够清楚瞭解所面临的危机状况，也是关键之一。

除了保持透明度以外，管理层也需通过適当的沟通，消除眾人对危机的恐惧感，並且鼓舞內部全体所有人的士气，一同跨越眼前的危机。

在眾人都清楚瞭解企业所面临的危机状况，並做好准备一同渡过难关之际，威拉阿兹哈表示管理层也应该让员工们知道企业对他们的预期，藉此而让他们瞭解在这段时期內应该达成的事。

5.贏得並保留客户（Customer Acquisition & Retention）

在危机发生的时候，企业旗下的客户或会被事件所影响，进而对该企业的產品或服务抱持观望態度。在这情况之下，企业对外的首要任务便是专注於留住原有的客户群，尽可能降低客户的流失量。

“谨慎且以客户为主的市场营销、销售及分销策略，是至关重要的。”威拉阿兹哈指出。

除了保留原有的客户群以外，企业也能够趁著金融危机的出现，夺取较弱同行对手的市场份额，从危机中寻找机会。