MALAYSIA BANKS - REPORT CARD - 3Q Calendar

1. Who was the largest bank in Total Assets on 31 Sep 2016?
RM715b = MBB
RM486b = CIMB
RM386b = PBB
RM229b = RHB
RM189b = HLBB
RM124b = AMMB
RM67b = AFFIN
RM57b = BIMB
RM54b = AFG
(to give perspective, MBB is as big as the combination of HLBB + AMMB + AFFIN + BIMB +AFG)


2. Who made the most money in the 3 months ending 31 Sep 2016?
RM1.86b = MBB
RM1.25b = PBB
RM1.05b = CIMB
RM0.54b = HLBB
RM0.51b = RHB
RM0.38b = AMMB
RM0.17b = AFG
RM0.14b = AFFIN
RM0.11b = BIMB
(bolded those that not in line with Total Assets size ranking)


3. Who was most efficient in generating profit from their Total Assets during the period?
1.30% = PBB
1.25% = AFG
1.21% = AMMB
1.15% = HLBB
1.04% = MBB
0.89% = RHB
0.86% = CIMB
0.86% = AFFIN
0.77% = BIMB
(unadjusted numbers, simply net profit/total asset annualised)


4. Who was most efficient in generating profits from their shareholder’s equity during the period?
14.8% = PBB
13.6% = AFG
11.0% = MBB
10.0% = BIMB
9.9% = HLBB
9.4% = RHB
9.2% = CIMB
9.1% = AMMB
6.5% = AFFIN
(unadjusted numbers. Simply net profit/total equity annualised). (ranking different from #3 highlighted)


5. Net interest margins estimates and ranking
2.58% = CIMB
2.52% = BIMB
2.22% = AFG, MBB
2.17% = PBB
2.15% = RHB
2.01% = HLBB
1.92% = AMMB
1.64% = AFFIN
(company reports. Estimates by CHOK KWAN TSONG. Guesstimates. May be wrong)


6. Who has the largest loan book on 30 Sep 2016?
RM461b = MBB
RM304b = CIMB
RM288b = PBB
RM153b = RHB
RM121b = HLBB
RM87b = AMMB
RM43b = AFFIN
RM39b = AFG
RM38b =BIMB
(very in line with ranking in #1 except for the 2 highlighted)


7. Who gave out the most loans in the 3 months ending 30 Sep 2016? Ranking by absolute numbers.
RM10.10b = MBB
RM6.73b = CIMB
RM4.80b = PBB
RM1.23b = RHB
RM0.79b = BIMB
RM0.64b = AFG
RM0.37b = HLBB
RM0.26b = AMMB
(RM0.17b) = AFFIN
(estimates by CHOK KWAN TSONG) (highlighted those with ranking not in line with #6)


8. How are they ranked versus their loan book size by ranking? Aka loans growth for the quarter.
+2.26% = CIMB
+2.24% = MBB
+2.14% = BIMB
+1.69% = PBB
+1.66% = AFG
+0.81% = RHB
+0.31% = HLBB
+0.29% = AMMB
-0.39% = AFFIN


9. How good are the loans in term of quality? Ranking of Gross impaired loan ratios.
0.52% = PBB
0.84% = HLBB
0.94% = AFG
1.09% = BIMB
1.64% = AMMB
2.08% = AFFIN
2.22% = MBB
2.25% = RHB
3.21% = CIMB
(low number means good quality)


10. How were their asset quality stacked against themselve versus previous quarter? (drop = improved) (from best improvement to deterioration)
-23bps = AFG
-12bps = MBB
-6bps = AMMB
+3bps = PBB
+3bps = BIMB
+4bps = HLBB
+5bps = CIMB
+9bps = AFFIN
+20bps = RHB


11. How about deposits? Who has the largest deposit base on 30 Sep 2016?
RM478b = MBB
RM337b = CIMB
RM318b = PBB
RM166b = RHB
RM149b = HLBB
RM83b = AMMB
RM49b = AFFIN
RM46b = AFG
RM41b = BIMB
(i did not segregate whether it is retail or wholesale deposits, i took the headline figure, thanks.)


12. Who attracted the most deposits in the 3 months period?
+RM20.59b = CIMB
+RM6.40b = PBB
+RM2.77b = AFFIN
+RM2.27b = BIMB
+RM1.86b = RHB
+RM1.31b = AFG
+RM0.75b = HLBB
-RM1.61b = MBB
-RM3.47b = AMMB
(i did not segregate whether it is retail or wholesale deposits, i took the headline figure, thanks.)


13. How they ranked in term against their deposit base? A.k.a deposit growths for the quarter.
+6.52% = CIMB
+5.97% = AFFIN
+5.85% = BIMB
+2.92% = AFG
+2.05% = PBB
+1.13% = RHB
+0.51% = HLBB
-0.34% = MBB
-4.00% = AMMB


14. How much in term of percentage did they lend out from their deposit base? Ranking by lowest first.
80.3% = HLBB
83.9% = AFG
86.5% = AFFIN
88.2% = CIMB
90.2% = PBB
90.4% = BIMB
91.0% = RHB
95.0% = MBB
103.4% = AMMB


15. Who set aside the most in loan loss provisioning? Highest first.
167.7% = BIMB
112.6% = HLBB
109.5% = PBB
101.9% = AFG
83.5% = AMMB
80.6% = CIMB
74.9% = MBB
59.7% = AFFIN
56.4% = RHB


16. Back to net profit, who has the highest jump in net profits in the quarter? By percentage.
+55.3% = MBB
+45.9% = RHB
+32.1% = AFG
+19.2% = CIMB
+4.2% = AMMB
+3.1% = AFFIN
-1.4% = PBB
-3.1% = HLBB
-31.0% = BIMB


17. Cost to income ratio ratio. Lowest first.
33% = PBB
45% = HLBB
47% = AFG
49% = MBB
51% = RHB
53% = CIMB
55% = AMMB
57% = BIMB
57% = AFFIN

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特朗普狂飙 美国山动地摇

蔡元评

十一月八日，“疯子”特朗普石破天惊，在全球注目的美国总统大选中，击溃“骗子”希拉丽；279张选举人票对228票，把美国翻了个天。被媒体鄙视，认为根本就不够格和希拉丽一较长短的特朗普一路狂奔，登上全球政治的首席。

与其同时，共和党在参、众两议院全胜，罕见的出现白宫和国会一党独揽，完全执政的情况。

这场耗费14亿美金攻防（希拉丽9亿，特朗普5亿），空前高昂的选战没有白花。它清楚的告诉美国人，既有的民主制度沦落，无法满足普罗大众的愿望。今天，大伙以选票泄恨，把“疯子”推上来了。其次，给主流传媒一顿棍棒 -—— 选前指名道姓，支持特定对象不但有失立场，而且自讨没趣。更荒唐的是民调和事实差距天壤之别，显示方法落伍，和社会脱了节。

“菜鸟”打败“老鸟”

希拉丽被视为“老鸟”，从政30年，当过参议员、国务卿，500天的竞选期间民调一路领先。传媒认定“老鸟”历练丰富，铁定当选！“老鸟”表示美国是个负有“世界使命”的“例外”国家，必须坚持领导全球的“特殊”地位、更多的参与国际事务、传播民主理想。对特朗普孤立美国鄙夷不屑，认为此人无知。她的政纲基本上延续美国一般的传统政策，包括征收美国海外企业“离开税“、提高最低工资标准、减免工薪家庭的负担等。

被定位为“菜鸟”的特朗普是政治素人，暴发户出身。心态和语言暴冲，动向难以捉摸。从一开始他就被主流媒体和精英蔑视，称他为大嘴巴、鼓吹异端邪说者，指这种角色根本就不配当总统。传媒和“老鸟”给他贴上四个又黑又负面的名牌：性侵犯者、种族主义者、排斥移民者、宗教歧视者。

特朗普发言多变，也没有完整的外交论述。他强调孤立和保护主义，提倡“美国优先论”。主张废除奥巴马的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》、要求美军驻地的国家负担费用、驱逐非法移民、在美墨边境建隔离墙、必要时禁止回教徒入境、要公平贸易而不是自由贸易、对中日等进口的商品征高税、逼美国企业将就业机会转回美国等。这些和传统美国政策逆向的激烈主张却让他如虎添翼，逆转胜出，把条件十足的“老鸟”打得落荒而逃！

颠覆传统的领头羊

素以全球首席民主典范自称的美国为何冒出了特朗普这个异类？

特朗普和希拉丽其实都不是民众普遍欢迎的人物。主流的工薪阶级认为，希拉丽代表的，是政客和财团挂钩的腐败政府；对中下教育的普罗大众漠不关心。当年，他们以掌声把奥巴马送上大位，希望高唱“改变”的奥巴马有所作为，结果却落空。

和奥巴马同民主党的希拉丽被刷上“骗子”和“伪君子”的封号。希拉丽对旗下基金会的庞大收入交代不清，电邮门事件闪闪烁烁；工薪阶级不相信诚信出问题的希拉丽改弦易辙，肯为他们打拼。特朗普站了出来，点爆了低收社会的愤慨，大嘴激言，给草根的郁闷找到了出路；摇身一变，成为颠覆传统财阀政治的领头羊。对沉默和压抑的多数而言，特朗普是个率性但诚实的“真小人”，他象征希望。选民两权相害取其轻。

美式民主面临危崖

这次的选举，已超越“伪君子”和“真小人”之间的对决；其深层的意义是对政治世家、豪门精英、特权与说客盘踞的美国政治的彻底反扑。“菜鸟”打败“老鸟”，反映了草根革命的冲动。
选战暴露了两个深层的伤疤。其一是选举机器失灵。两党的选举程序，已无法确保一流的政治人物出线；选贤与能的民主圭臬沦为乌托邦，过程有如口技竞赛，选举机器吐出来的泰半是政客。“希特之战”是美国史上最丑陋的大选。

其二是媒体失去制高点。主流媒体一面倒的为希拉丽扑粉，对宏观政治则极少着墨，对选举罕见的恶言暴行也未有力的匡正。相反的，各种八卦和花边不断的占据首页，候选人沦为民众看笑的丑角。此外，民调高度的误判，各方到开票前一天仍坚信希拉丽赢面95%。主流媒体显然对社会脉动失去了准头，民调若及早发现草根的动向，特朗普当选就不至于发生山动地摇似的惊爆。

美式民主已走到了危崖边缘，“疯子”特朗普颠覆白宫，把美国政治剥了一层皮后，各方仍否有反省和改革的能力，拭目以待。〈作者為《全球競爭力》主編

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