After turbulent 2014, next year may be no calmer

From financial crisis in Russia to cyber warfare with North Korea, 2014 has generated new flashpoints right into its final days, setting 2015 up to be just as turbulent.

Almost all of the major confrontations, such as the battle with Islamic State militants, the West's stand-off with Russia over Ukraine and the fight against Ebola, will rumble on. Others could erupt at short notice.

"Normally after a year like this you might expect things to calm down," said John Bassett, former senior official with British signals intelligence agency GCHQ now an associate at Oxford University. "But none of these problems have been resolved and the drivers of them are not going away."

The causes are varied - a global shift of economic power from the West, new technologies, regional rivalries and anger over rising wealth gaps.

In June, a report by the Institute for Economics and Peace showed world peace declining for the seventh consecutive year since 2007, reversing a trend of improvement over decades.

The same group said in November deaths from militant attacks leapt 60 percent to an all-time high, primarily in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria, this at a time when the West's ability to respond militarily is constrained as Washington and its European allies cut defense budgets.

RUSSIAN ENIGMA

While Western policymakers hope Russia's economic crisis will curb Vladimir Putin's ambitions, others worry it could make him more unpredictable.

"It's not necessarily going to make Russia any better behaved," says Christopher Harmer, a former U.S. navy pilot now senior fellow at the Institute for Study of War.

NATO officials say the alliance would treat any aggression, even covert, in NATO member Baltic states as an act of war.

China is building up its military might. It lays claim to almost all the South China Sea, believed to be rich in oil and gas. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims.

In the East China Sea, a string of islets claimed by both China and Japan have strained ties severely.

Some officials and analysts say Western overstretch means a confrontation in one part of the world can encourage potential adversaries elsewhere to try their luck, a potential factor in North Korea's increased assertiveness.

Washington has accused Pyongyang of launching a cyber attack on Sony Pictures after its film on the fictional assassination of leader Kim Jong Un. North Korea has rejected the charge.

"The recent hack on Sony has highlighted the vulnerability of the West to the growing threat posed by cyber attack," said Alastair Newton, senior political analyst at Nomura.

    

MIDDLE EAST MAELSTROM

Washington's adversaries are becoming more adept at "ambiguous warfare", using deniable tactics or proxy forces such as the "little green men" in unmarked uniforms and vehicles the West says Russia deployed in Ukraine.

Covert tactics may no longer be enough to satisfy Israel it can slow Iran's nuclear program. With a mid-year deadline for a deal, some analysts believe Israel's government might launch a military strike to knock it back.

"If Iran agrees a deal, and that remains a big "if", that could constitute a trigger for such an event," said Nigel Inkster, former deputy chief of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) and now head of transnational threats at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.

He said much would depend on whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wins March elections and how hardline a coalition results.

On one threat, most of the world's powers are coalescing.

Pushing back Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is a high priority for western states, Gulf powers and Turkey, Russia and China.

Whether they can bridge differences on the fate of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, however, remains unclear.

Already some worry the anti-IS operation initially to safeguard minority refugees in northern Iraq is suffering "mission creep" as U.S. elections hove into view.

More than 1,000 members of the 82nd Airborne Division will deploy to Iraq in the New Year to help train Iraqi forces.

The first months of 2015 will also be key in tackling a very different foe: Ebola.

A major U.S. military deployment to build treatment centers in Liberia is credited with helping slow new cases there but the virus continues to spread in Sierra Leone and Guinea.       

"It really is an unusually broad range of challenges," said Kathleen Hicks, U.S. Principal Deputy Secretary of Defence for Policy from 2012-13 and now with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

2015：中國世紀元年？

經濟日報 社論

諾貝爾經濟學獎得主史提格里茲在美國《名利場》雜誌2015年1月號（提前出版）發表文章《中國世紀從2015年開始》。文章指出，在書寫2014年的歷史時，需要留意一個幾乎被忽視的重大事實：2014年是美國能夠號稱自己是全球第一大經濟體的最後一年。中國經濟以拔得頭籌之勢進入2015年，並很可能長時間執此牛耳。

史提格里茲說，世界銀行根據「購買力平價」方式公布的最新數據顯示，中國將以遠遠超乎所有人預料的速度成為世界第一大經濟體，此一目標即將於2014年底實現。

或許以「購買力平價」方式計算的GDP尚不為一般人廣泛接受，中國大陸官方也予以排斥，即使如此，但GDP之外，也有愈來愈多的類中國世紀現象在最近頻繁出現：

—國際外交方面，從中國作為主場的北京APEC峰會，到緬甸舉行的東盟峰會，再到澳洲舉行的G20峰會，中國領導人的鋒頭，獨領風騷；習近平上任兩年以來，累計出訪了30個國家，遍及七大洲、三大洋，從大國到新興國到太平洋小國，可謂縱橫捭闔。

—氣勢方面，開始積極主導議題：倡議與建立亞太自貿區、金磚新開發銀行、亞洲基礎設施投資開發銀行、一帶一路等，甚至引導及設定規格，如高鐵出口、浙江烏鎮舉行世界第一屆互聯網大會等。

—這一切靠的都是綜合國力。經濟上，除了GDP即將超美，2014年中國GDP已是日本的兩倍，出口額、貿易額、製造業、外匯儲備等，都是世界第一；軍事上，在東海中國已有針對美國介入的反介入能力，中國也在南海填海擴島。在印度洋廣設海港，甚至開始在西非的納米比亞興建港口；另外，也即將在泰國及尼加拉瓜分別開鑿兩條新運河。當然，也包括在太空領域的成就及深海科研領域的表現等，均已位居世界前段班。

如何解讀中國這近乎井噴式的全方位各領域的表現？其實並不困難，因為除了近200年，中國從來就是第一，也就是史提格里茲說的，「中國回到了它在人類歷史上大多數時間裡所占據的地位」。他所說的「大多數時間」，準確的說法是「人類3,000年歷史或30個世紀中的前28世紀」。

這裡，有三個問題需要處理：一、中國為什麼從來就是世界第一？二、為什麼從來第一的中國近200年卻急轉直下？三、為什麼近30年又谷底翻升，重新崛起？

先談第二、第三個，再談第一個。為何從來第一的中國國運會急轉直下，是因為中國在近幾百年中連續錯失了海洋、工業革命及資本主義市場經濟三個寶貴機遇，因而被抓住這三個機遇的近代九個海洋強國（葡、西、荷、英、德、法、俄、日、美）輪番欺壓。

其次，為什麼近30年又重新崛起，正是因為鄧小平的改革開放抓回了市場經濟及工業革命，而現在的習近平正在抓回海洋強國機遇。

至於中國為什麼從來就是全球第一，是因為中國從來就是市場經濟，意思是政府除了極少數經濟活動如鹽、鐵專賣、統一貨幣等之外均開放民營，對市場價格並不干預，最多是徵一些必要的稅賦及設平準基金，但必須補充一點，市場經濟並非放諸四海而皆有用，必須配上中國擁有的另兩個條件，即勤奮的民族性及巨大的人口規模，才能起大作用。

抓住了三個寶貴機遇的英國，在拿破崙戰爭及鴉片戰爭先後打敗了法國與中國後，稱霸全球，版圖橫跨全球四分之一，時間約100年，是謂英國世紀。19世紀末，美國GDP超過英國，但英國霸主地位完全被美國取代則是20世紀二次大戰之後的事。所以，20世紀是美國世紀，特別是1991年拖垮蘇聯之後，而那時中國剛開始啟動改革開放，所以美國獨領風騷，顧盼自雄。

進入21世紀，現在，中國世紀現象已然萌現，但21世紀會不會真的成為中國世紀，不能只看GDP，還要看包括政治體制改革在內的全面深化改革，及能否在文化、思想及意識形態各方面獲得更大的解放，及如何處理好國際特別是與美國的關係而定。這些條件能否具備也決定了「2015：中國世紀元年」後面跟的究竟是一個「！」或是一個「？」。

Top Malaysia Website

橱窗粉饰或掀小涨潮‧马股明年下半年振雄风

基金经理的年终粉饰橱窗活动，令马股有望出现小型年杪或新年涨潮。但在当前经济逆风衝击下，达证券预期明年上半年马股將承压，要到下半年才有望重振雄风，带动综指在明年杪迈向1915点目標。

达证券在《2015年市场展望》报告中指出，马股在明年上半年可能起伏不定，因为推行消费税带来不明朗因素、欧盟和日本面对通缩和担心美国提早升息。

无论如何，近期全球经济疲弱，应可让投资者放心於美国只会逐步升息，而外国投资者不会完全撤离新兴市场。

达证券表示，原油价格重挫令人们的可支配收入增加，欧元区量宽可能注入新鲜流动性、中国宽鬆政策以及日本持续展开的財政和货幣措施，將是强劲的外围催化因素，伴隨国內活动坚稳之下，推动马股明年走高。

大马明年经济 料可成长5%至6%

大马政府预测明年经济成长可达到5%至6%，加上政府持续进行结构重组，因此大马明年將可停留在外国投资者的投资雷达上。

达证券指出，市场和该行对明年企业盈利成长的预测分別为9.4%和8.3%，大致已反映目前的疲软经济局势和物价上升的压力。

“不过，如果油价持续下滑，欧洲和日本注入更多流动性、以及中国宽鬆/扩张政策令生產成本降低和外围需求升高，则马股企业盈利將有上调空间。”

由於明年4月推行消费税，全年通膨率料走高至4.3%，相比今年为3.3%，惟预料可在2016年正常化至3%水平。根据其它国家推行消费税的经验显示，企业的销量可能受影响，但由於调高售价，盈利应可得到缓冲。

美国经济强劲將促使联储局於明年第三季升息，但是预料美国將会逐步升息，以避免经济成长受打击。这可能导致马幣兑美元疲软，大马出口商將获正面影响，而进口商和高外债公司则受创。同时，为了保持出口竞爭力和內需，国行在2015年料不会升息。

2015年三大动力来源分別为：

1）推动成长的政策和国內活动保持、

2）6月公佈的第11大马计划將成为未来成长基石和

3）预期2016年紧缩货幣政策和持续结构重组，將吸引外资在2015年下半年流入。

至於明年的四大主要风险则分別为1）企业盈利继续令人失望、2）通膨压力、3）意外升息和4）全球经济和地缘政治震盪。

年杪涨潮不持久

马股综指在今年7月创下1896点新高之后，至今已回退7.7%，令投资者期望基金经理进行粉饰柜窗，而带来年杪或新年涨潮。

达证券指出，股市在12月份应可小幅上涨，推动综指接近1810点的年杪目標，但在目前的经济逆风下，不预期此涨潮可以持续。

马幣明年料可保持3.33

明年2月华人新年后可能会出现显著调整和巩固，直至低原產品价格、消费税和美国潜在升息的不明朗因素被消化之后，股市才会回稳。因此，预料2015年上半年股市將保持动盪和向下倾斜。跌势可在1635点获扶持，这是2008至2014年本益比中数14.7倍的水平，股市走势之后会在2015年下半年改善。

原產品价格疲软，財政赤字隱忧和马幣贬值，外资自9月杪开始成为净卖家，在8月份净流入1亿令吉之后，接下来3个月份別外流14亿、5亿和3亿令吉，今年首11月共外流39亿令吉，相比2012和2013年共净流入161亿令吉。由於油价持续下跌和马幣在明年上半年保持疲软，外资沽售的风险仍然存在。达证券相信明年马幣兑美元匯率平均应可保持在3.33水平，波幅介於3.25至3.50令吉之间。

综指预料可在明年下半年反弹，因为低油价对全球经济的正面衝击显现，令外需增加，將激励大马出口，最终推升马幣，以及吸引外资重返大马市场。

投资策略 上半年可趁低吸购

达证券指出，马股仍被视为抗跌股市，周息率达3.2%，以及政府相关基金参与股市的比重偏高。一旦股市在2015年上半年激烈波动，將带来趁低买进的良机。根据16倍本益比估值，综指明年杪的目標为1915点，相等於1.9倍股价/账面值。

马股目前的水平距离综指明年杪目標约有9%上升空间，可採取由下至上的策略以寻觅从马幣疲软、出口升高、燃油价走低和更高可支配收入中大幅受惠的成长股。

“明年我们首选的领域为科技/製造、电力/公用事业、產业和博彩。虽然我们对银行及油气业持中和立场，但仍挑选其中两只具实力的大资本股。”

国家能源（TENAGA,5347,主板贸服组）是大资本股中的首选，因该股將从低能源价格和国內活动升温中受益。至於联昌集团（CIMB,1023,主板金融组）在近期被拋售后，估值重现吸引力。同样的，沙肯石油（SKPETRO,5218,主板贸服组）具盈利成长潜能，在股价重挫后也浮现价值。

至於中型股首选则为怡保种植（IJMPLNT,2216,主板种植组）和马星集团（MAHSING,8583,主板產业组）。

Weak ringgit is good news for some sectors

A WEAK ringgit isn’t exactly bad news for everybody, especially for the exporting semiconductor and rubber gloves sector.

The dollar, which has strengthened by some 9% since August 2014 because of the drop in oil prices and the strength in the US economy, should make Malaysia’s exports more competitive relative to their global peers.

For the semiconductor sector, this is further buoyed by positive sales figures, particularly in October 2014 where global sales recorded the highest monthly level.

Global semiconductor sales hit US$29.6bil that month and has consistently been recording new highs over the past 18 months.

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics is now anticipating higher global semiconductor sales for 2014, 2015 and 2016 to US$333.bil, US$344.5bil and US$355.3bil respectively. This is an increase in forecasts by 2.4%, 2.5% and 1.4% respectively.

MIDF Research says the positive growth will be mainly attributable to higher demand from the smartphone and automotive industries.

“In the foreseeable term, the adoption of smartphones remains one of the key driving catalysts for the sector. The transition of 2G to 3G and 4G will inevitably create stronger demand for low to mid-priced smartphones, especially in emerging markets,” said MIDF Research.

MIDF’s picks are Unisem (M) Bhd and Globetronics Technology Bhd, as both are component suppliers and beneficiaries of the smartphone adoption.

Meanwhile AffinHwang Research’s prefered pick is Inari Amertron Bhd due to its position as a leading contractor for Avago, a market leader in the global RF space.

“Within our coverage universe, we forecast Inari’s earnings to be among the most resilient given strong growth in the smartphone and tablet space. it is also the most profitable listed semiconductor player locally,” says AffinHwang Reseach.

Hong Leong Investment Research pegs Inari’s a price-to-earnings (PE) of 13.75 times to the stock and estimates its PE to be 9.93 for the financial year ending June 30, 2015.

Inari makes components for smart mobile gadgets like iPhone 5a, iPad Air, Samsung Galaxy S5 and Xiaomi Mi-2.

Its biggest client is American Singaporean technology company Avago, which contributes more than 70% to Inari’s total sales.

In an effort to diversify its income base, the firm has moved into research, design and manufacturing of fibre optics related products.

Consensus target price for the stock is RM3.81, Bloomberg data shows.

Meanwhile, earnings for Globetronics continue to improve, with the company recording a 16.5% increase in earnings to RM17.7mil as of its third quarter earnings to Sep 30.

This improvement was mainly attributed to the higher topline contribution. On a nine-month basis, earnings increased 24.2% to RM49.1mil led by higher volume loadings from most its customer and improvement in profit margins.

At the same time, Globetronics’ cash balance increased by 13.9% to RM167.8mil. With borrowings of only RM8.1mil, this leaves the company in a net cash position of RM159.7mil.

Year-to-date, the group has declared dividend amounting to 18 sen which translates into a yield of 4.1%.

“Globetronics has been consistently delivering steady earnings growth by keeping pace with market demands. With a growing cash pile, we are confident that the company will continue its attractive dividend payout,” says MIDF Research which has a buy recommendation and a target price of RM5.45 based on a dividend discount model assumption.

Following a successful turnaround, Unisem is a beneficiary as it manufactures mircrochips that are used in electronic products. Having shut down its loss making plants, the company has now started on a clean slate with its production plants in Ipoh, Chengdu and Batam.

For its third quarter ended Sept 30 it returned to the black at RM27.12mil compared to a loss of RM648,000 a year earlier. Revenue came in 11% stronger at RM273.27mil for the same period.

Some Penang-based test equipment companies have also been projecting a good first quarter for 2015 riding on new customer orders and optimistic forecast for the test equipment and the light-emitting diode industry.

In a StarBiz article on Nov 3, Elsoft Research Bhd and Pentamaster Corp Bhd have received orders and enquiries for the first quarter.

This is typically against the first quarter trend, which is usually slower as most manufacturers would have put in orders before the Christmas season. Rubber product manufacturers Top Gloves Corp, Supermax Corp Bhd, Hartalega Holdings Bhd and condom manufacturer Karex Bhd are beneficiaries of the weaker ringgit.

AllianceDBS Research says it is upbeat on the rubber gloves sector as it offers resilient earnings growth while being relatively insulated from the rising cost of doing business, which is a recurring headache for most businesses in Malaysia, especially with the goods and services tax and a weaker ringgit.

Smaller rubber glove makers are also benefiting.

PN 17 status

Integrated Rubber Corp Bhd chairman Lim Boon Huat says that the US dollar appreciation is a clear positive for his company, which is on its way to steering itself out of Practice Note 17 status.

“The US dollar rise coupled with the reduction in oil prices is having a positive impact on our business,” he says.

“While 40% of our cost is in US dollars, as much as 95% of our revenue is on the dollar,” he adds.

Furthermore, glove makers are on an expansion spree with capacity expected to grow at a 3-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11%. In Hartalega’s case, it plans to double its capacity by 2017.

“We expect Malaysian glove makers to further gain global market share as has been in the past four years,” says AllianceDBS Research. AllianceDBS however, expects earnings of the rubber gloves sector to remain flat this year before growing by 16% per annum in 2015 and 2016 mainly driven by Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd and Hartalega.

“Hartalega and Kossan have the most resilient earnings profile among the glovemakers, making them viable alternatives to defensive stocks which are trading at relatively higher valuations,” it adds.

AllianceDBS has upgraded Hartalega with a higher target price of RM8.45, at a PE ratio of 22 times FY16 earnings. This target is derived by applying a 50% premium to the industry average of 15 times.

This valuation is similar to Top Glove, when it was still a bellwether stock for the sector in 2010.

It also has a buy call on Kossan with a target price of RM5.05, pegged on 18x PE 2015 earnings. It prefers the stock for its resilient earnings profile, and decent capacity CAGR of 11%.

OPEC is wrong to think it can outlast U.S. on oil prices

Give Saudi Arabia credit: Whoever sets oil-production policy for the desert kingdom has guts. Unfortunately, the sheiks have made what’s likely to become a sucker’s bet.

You know this part already, but the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last week declined to cut production, sending Brent crude oil futures tumbling to their cheapest point since 2009. The Saudis appear to be spoiling for a fight, trying to find out exactly how cheap oil must be to force surging U.S. shale-oil production to seize up like an unlubricated engine.

“Naimi declares price war on U.S. shale oil,” a Reuters headline shouted, referring to Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi.

But there are at least three big problems with this strategy. One, North American crude isn’t as expensive to produce as it used to be. Two, there’s more than you think in the pipeline to make it even cheaper. And third, OPEC nations, including Saudi Arabia, have squandered their edge in cheap oil supplies on welfare states rulers can’t easily cut back.

In 2012, when U.S. shale burst into public consciousness, common wisdom was that it would cost at least $70 to $75 a barrel to produce. As recently as last week, saying U.S. producers could tolerate $60 oil seemed aggressive.

But data from the state of North Dakota says the average cost per barrel in America’s top oil-producing state is only $42 — to make a 10% return for rig owners. In McKenzie County, which boasts 72 of the state’s 188 oil rigs, the average production cost is just $30, the state says. Another 27 rigs are around $29.

That’s part of why oil companies aren’t cutting capital spending much — and they say they can keep production rising without spending more, by getting more out of wells they have already drilled.

A key example is mega-independent Devon Energy DVN, +0.64%  , which produces about 200,000 of the 9 million-plus barrels the U.S. drills each day.

Devon wouldn’t give an interview, but said last month that it expects production to rise 20%-25% next year with little growth in capital spending. It has room to work because its pretax cash profit margins have widened by 37% in the first nine months of this year, to almost $30 per barrel of oil equivalent. More than half its 2015 production is protected by hedges if prices stay below $91 a barrel, the company says.

This trend toward efficiency will only get more pronounced, Lux Research analyst Daniel Choi suggests. Technology startups in energy exploration have raised $7 billion in the past decade, generating now-tiny companies that will use advances in seismic data collection and steam-assisted gravity drainage to lower costs even further. Companies such as Liquid Robotics and Laricina Energy are likely to get acquired before going public, but work like theirs will spread, Choi predicts.

Yes, it costs Saudi Arabia only about $2 a barrel to get crude CLF5, -1.77%  out of the ground. But analysts insist the Saudis’ real pain point is more than $100 a barrel — more than $30 higher than its price now — because of what they do with the money once they have it.

In 2010, for example, the Saudis spent $130 billion to combat the Arab Spring, the Persian Gulf Fund reports. Some of that money went for better education and health care, and a little for infrastructure. Then there was a 15% raise for government employees, higher unemployment benefits, a government-subsidized minimum wage hike and 500,000 new homes in a nation of 28 million people. It cost 30% of Saudi gross domestic product.

Exxon Mobil XOM, -0.58%  and Devon have no such burdens. Naimi’s strategy to squeeze North Dakota and Texas is a bet that in the long run, low prices will force a cut in production and a return to Saudi leverage. But it will be much easier to further trim North American production costs than to convince whole nations to eat less.

All this is early, and a snapback in demand could make everything markets think about oil moot. And just because technology changes a market doesn’t mean emerging players are great stock bets — for every Expedia EXPE, +2.01% there’s a Travelocity. The drop in oil shares now makes sense; these stocks should be on sale while things play out.

But OPEC still looks like a late-1990s company caught in Harvard Business School professor Clay Christensen’s “Innovator’s Dilemma” — so married to once-innovative business models, it couldn’t adjust when technology re-engineered their industries. Think of the Saudi welfare state as oil’s brick-and-mortar stores: integral to an old business model, unsustainable in the new.

OPEC’s Naimi ought to read the “Innovator’s Dilemma.” Barnes & Noble BKS, +7.61%  has a comfy chair waiting.

房產项目价格低 马星值得投资

受政府打房政策影响，大马房產市场上半年开始出现下跌趋势，原本寄望下半年市场需求会更为强劲，无奈国行收紧贷款以致消费者难以取得房贷，发展商和消费者情绪下滑，2014年可谓发展商经营环境相当艰苦的一年。

　根据瑞士信贷集团（Credit Suisse，简称瑞信）报告，投资者在这个艰难的环境下应物色遭低估且稳健，以及有建设可负担房屋的发展商来投资。

　“巴生谷房產计划的认购率在今年上半年最稳健。相较于柔佛的53%至56%之间，以及檳城的47%至52%之间，巴生谷的62%至73%似乎更稳健。檳城房產的认购率下跌，主要因为发展商的房產推介价格太高，但檳城房市前景依然是相当不错的。”

盈利可见度很重要

　在上半年，价格100万令吉以下的房產，认购率依然相当不错，维持在72%至76%之间；房价在100万令吉以上的房產，认购率只有在55%左右。

　除了国內情绪疲软，以及贷款批准更为严谨，消费税的落实也將重挫发展商赚幅，考虑到多种不利因素，瑞信认为净利的可见性是相当重要的。

　“我们认为，巴生谷依然是最稳健的，其次为檳城和柔佛；在贷款紧缩的环境下，房价低于100万令吉的房產认购率会较高。”

　该行认为，马星集团（MAHSING，8583，主要板房產）是不错的投资选择。

马星巴生谷房產 最可负担

根据2014年大马家庭收入初步调查显示，大马整体家庭收入从2012年至今成长了18%，假设每个州属的成长率为10%，估计巴生谷购房者可负担的房產价格在68万2000令吉至83万3000令吉之间，柔佛则在45万2000令吉水平，以及檳城为49万令吉。

　“根据发展商最新的销售和房產推出数据来看，我们估计马星旗下房產项目价格最低，巴生谷每单位平均价为59万3000令吉，落在该地区人民的可负担范围之內。”

　不过，马星旗下柔佛房產是52万9000令吉，檳城为60万令吉；比柔佛和檳城购房者能力高出17%至22%。

　另一方面，东家（E&O，3417，主要板房產）的房產计划属于豪华档次，普遍价格在100万令吉以上。

　其他发展商在巴生谷的房產计划则是中高档次，实达集团和怡保工程置地（IJMLAND，5215，主要板房產）房產价格在可负担范围內，UEM阳光（UEMS，5148，主要板房產）和IOI房產（IOIPG，5249，主要板房產）则是超出能力范围的4%至8%。

　在檳城方面，实达集团和怡保工程置地皆超出当地人能力范围的28%至83%。但怡保工程置地在该区域的住宅房屋已全数售出，目前放眼发展商业房產。

　在柔佛，实达集团、怡保工程置地、UEM阳光和IOI房產4家发展商的房產价格都超出可负担范围的12%至74%。

城镇发展项目 反应佳

开发大幅土地或是以城镇（Township）方式开发，能让发展商针对目前的市场策略，弹性推出房產项目，IOI房產、马星和怡保工程置地在这方面的弹性极佳，获瑞士信贷集团看好。

　“IOI房產主要为城镇发展商，城镇项目佔了地库的83%或8365英亩，目前在发展的城镇分別落在巴生谷、柔佛和芙蓉。”

　马星近期收购了多块大面积土地来发展新重要城镇，这些城镇计划分別位于巴生谷和柔佛等地，佔了总地库的80%。

　“怡保工程置地的主要城镇计划，Bandar Rimbayu和Seremban 2的反应都相当热烈，首次在柔佛推出的房產计划也取得很不错成绩。这3项计划佔公司土地73%，公司弹性，主要来自土地区域的多样化。”

　此外，UEM阳光在推出一系列计划都相当具有弹性，但主要缺点是土地过于集中在柔佛，担心会出现供过于求的现象。实达集团虽有一定的弹性，但领导层的更换，可能会导致公司缺乏明確目標。