Property buyers cautious

There is growing evidence of softening demand for residential property priced at RM1mil and above, as buyers turn cautious amid a rising glut in the higher end of the market.

But an expanding working population in growing cities around the country will keep demand in the affordable housing segment steady in 2015, according to speakers at the Property Market Outlook for 2015 seminar.

“The property market is expected to moderate in 2015,” said Valuation and Property Services Department deputy director-general Faizan Abdul Rahman.

“Nevertheless, the residential property market will continue to sustain, underpinned by the growing working population and first-time home buyers.”

According to Faizan, highlights of the housing market would be below RM500,000, while high-end housing priced above RM1mil is likely to wane.

More than RM124bil worth of property was transacted during the first nine months of 2014, up 15.8% compared with the same period in the previous year. Volume, however, expanded at a more moderate pace.

Rating agency Moody’s Investors Service yesterday said it expected demand for residential property in Malaysia to slow further in 2015, crimped by the property cooling measures imposed in 2013 and weak buyer sentiment.

It said developers focused on residential projects in Johor, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Penang would face the greatest challenge in achieving their sales targets.

“Currently, there is an oversupply of high-end condominiums and offices,” event organising chairman and VPC Alliance chartered surveyor and director James Wong said.

This was evident, he said, as property developers had been launching fewer projects in recent months. Wong also said there had been a rise in property auctions, while banks were getting stricter in approving housing loans.

“We have been seeing correctional signs since the fourth quarter of 2014. Coupled with the oversupply, we suspect this will not be a good year for the property market,” he said.

The situation as it is, according to one property consultant, is that high-end properties are aplenty, but low-to-middle-income earners are unable to buy a home due to a shortage of supply in affordable housing.

“This is where market correction has to come in. Developers’ products must be more affordable than what they had last launched,” PPC International managing director Datuk Siders Sittampalam said.

“Developers have a statutory requirement to build 30% low-cost housing,” Wong said.

“The way forward is to build affordable homes where both public and private sectors play a part.

“However, since the cost of land in KL City is relatively more expensive compared with the rest of the country, developers would not be able to produce the level of profits that they are used to if they build too many so-called affordable homes.

“Therefore, there should be more incentives provided by the public sector,” Sittampalam said.

To boost the supply of affordable housing, the Government has come out with several initiatives such as the 80,000 units under PR1MA for household incomes up to RM10,000, the 26,000 units under the National Housing Department (Program Perumahan Rakyat), 37,000 units under Syarikat Perumahan Negara Bhd and 5,380 units under the Program Perumahan Penjawat Awam 1Malaysia (PPA1M).

“马股将跌入熊市” 陈剑：善用“对冲”策略赚钱

在马币汇率疲软，油价低迷成为2015年新常态下，我国股市极大可能将面临另一轮的熊市，不过危机就是转机，投资者也可能有巨大机会从熊市中赚钱。

松大智囊团及资深基金经理颜敏树和松大首席导师陈剑相信，我国今年的股市将迎来熊市，不过只要投资者懂得投资策略，懂得运用“对冲策略”及“以守为攻”，从中找出具投资性的个股，就可从中受惠。

陈剑今日在2015年“非富不可之全民投资”投资大会的全国巡回讲座，吉隆坡站的讲座会中向大家分析大马股市吉隆坡综合指数在过去20年来的周期变化，并指点投资者如何在我国即将来临的熊市中赚钱牟利。

他分析，从吉隆坡综合指数在过去20年来的周期变化看来，我国综合指数在2012年至2014年期间一直维持在“牛市”的姿态，2015年极有可能是过去20年来第六次熊市，不过当中也存有巨大的赚钱机会。

“大”“小”熊难辨认

他指出，过去20年来，我国共面临“3大熊市”和“2小熊市”，3次“大熊市”分别是1997年的亚洲金融风暴、2001年的美国科技泡沫及2008年美国次贷危机；2次“小熊市”则是2003年的非典疫情爆发和2011年的欧洲债券危机。然而，我国今年将会进入“大熊市”或“小熊市”，他则无法确认。

“小熊市可维持3到6个月，而大熊市下跌指数可达40%以上，维持或超过1年以上的时间。”

他也提醒新手入场者在熊市入场前要慎重考虑。

油价再跌股市恐“跳水”

陈剑指出，目前国际原油价每桶47.85美元，已跌回2005年的油价水平。如果国际原油价跌到每桶35美元，我国再度重组财政预算案，大马股市将会“跳水”。

由于这次国际油价暴跌的原因出在美国供应过剩，他预计国际油价会有一段时间的“挣扎期”。

另外，他说，马币汇率走软，对想要到国外旅游的国人造成一定的冲击。他建议，在亚洲国家国人只能去日本旅游，因为日元是跌得最惨的国家，马币则排行第二。

宜过年前做好“对冲”组合

陈剑说，投资者要在牛市进行“全攻型”的股票组合，而在熊市时则要投资“对冲组合”，如购买认沽凭单，减低风险。

“但若找到不同（对冲）定率，比例股票，可更有效地实行对冲策略，就可提高回酬率。”

他提醒投资者在过年前，最好就做好对冲组合，因为过年后，他看不到我国股市有利好因素。

他分析，假如马币汇率疲软，油价低迷成常态，2015年投资大方向可参考，受惠油价下跌的行业（航空业、物流业）；出口导向型企业为主（家具业）；抗衰退型行业（生意稳定）；和高成长型企业（业绩增长）。

由松大资本有限公司主办，《南洋商报》为媒体伙伴的2015年“非富不可之全民投资”投资大会的全国巡回讲座，于今日在吉隆坡王岳海大礼堂，并由松大智囊团及资深基金经理颜敏树和松大首席导师陈剑向大家分享“投资秘诀”，获得出席者的热烈响应，现场人潮拥挤。

颜敏树：油价或第三季回弹

松大智囊团及资深基金经理颜敏树提出三大论点来探讨国际原油价是否已经见底的可能性。

他指出，上周，亿万富豪对冲基金经理人皮肯斯（Boone Pickens）预测，美国原油库存可能在未来的六周内攀升至历史新高纪录，但过后应该就会下跌。

“这句话很重要，这表示油价会在1个月半内攀上最高的水平，不过随后就会滑落。”

同时，他说：“如今有石油商开始囤积石油，租用超大的油轮用于海上储存原油，这意味着，国际油价的跌幅已经到达差不多的价位，快要见底了。”

他指，2008年国际油价暴跌之后，也曾经出现过囤积石油的情况，当时的情况正好与目前的情况吻合。

他也举出，根据全球第三大油田服务公司Baker Hughes数据显示，从去年6月迄今，已有24%美国钻油台已停顿运作，因此目前美国高库存量肯定会下跌，到时就是油价反弹的时期。

“2008年至今今，现在就是‘抓着时机’的时候。”

他说，投资者一定要守到第3或第4季度，国际油价应该要回弹至平均每桶75美元的水平。

他认为，在熊市要“以守为攻”，投资者可考虑趁低买入买油气股，然而国际油价不可能会跌破历年来的最低点。

美股若挫10% 马股恐跌破1671点

颜敏树认为，美国道琼斯指数飙升到12年新高，此走势对美国的跨国公司不利，因为会缩小其公司的盈利。

他说，外汇大量撤走，影响马币兑美元走贬，冲击中央银行，提高国家和公司债券的回报率。

他预测，如果美国股市继续往下跌10%，马股肯定会应声下跌，我国的富时隆综指（KLCI）料会下挫至少10%，这是唯一的可能性把马股推破1671点以下的原因。

“唯一能够把它（富时隆综指）推破1671点的话，只有美国（股市）暴跌10%到15%。”

至于有人指富时隆综指可能会跌破1300点，他表示这是不可能的事，因为要跌31%的跌幅，我国的经济增长至少要有一个季度的萎缩。

他指出，在2008年我国综指曾剧跌47%，曾有三个季度的经济萎缩期，而2001年“9‧11”事件，马股也曾暴跌47%，呈2个季度的经济萎缩。

“现在我们的经济增长有无萎缩，看不到，所以（综指）要跌30%。（综指）跌15%，绝对有可能，大概到1610点，如果美国跌的话。”

1MDB could become systemic risk, says veteran journalist

Strategic investment firm 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB)‎ could become a source of systemic risk if it fails to repay its RM5.5 billion debt by June, triggering economic instability in the country, veteran journalist Datuk A. Kadir Jasin said.

Citing an anonymous source, the former group editor-in-chief of New Straits Times said that 1MDB's outstanding loans were now at 4% of gross domestic product (GDP), and noted that the firm had already extended its loan repayments twice.

"‎The country's financial and banking system is exposed to systemic risk if 1MDB fails to settle its huge debts," Kadir said in his blog yesterday.

"One source said the outstanding loan of 1MDB amounts to 4% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) – nearly the same as the (debts of the) conglomerate Renong-UEM during the 1997/98 financial crisis which forced the government to bail it out by taking over the firm from Tan Sri Abdul Halim Saad."

According to financial website Investopedia, systemic risk is the possibility that an event at the company level could trigger severe instability or collapse an entire industry or economy.

It said a company that was highly interconnected with others was a source of systemic risk.

"Anyone who understands economics would become unnerved at the mention of ‘systemic failure’. That is nearly what happened to us during the 1997/98 crisis but, Alhamdulillah, it was averted by the prime minister that time, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad," said Kadir.

Kadir, who is also an adjunct professor at Universiti Utara Malaysia's Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business, said 1MDB's ability to settle its debts relied on its listing of its power assets, which had already been delayed several times.

Kadir said that the banks most at risk should 1MDB fail to settle its debts were Maybank ( Financial Dashboard) and RHB ( Financial Dashboard), which were both owned by government-linked companies (GLC) Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) and Employees Provident Fund (EPF), respectively.‎

‎"I have repeated this many times. We cannot allow GLC and GLIC to become the source of 1MDB's funds.”

He added that the government would also have to bear the burden of the unpaid loans‎ because it had guaranteed bonds worth RM5 billion.

Kadir said that even if it did not become a systemic risk, 1MDB's debts and business "modus operandi" could threaten Malaysia's sovereign rating.

‎He noted that ratings agency Fitch Ratings had maintained its negative outlook on Malaysia's sovereign ratings, according to a report by The Star on January 12.

However, Kadir said a "highly placed government officer" who specialised in finance told him the banks would rely on appropriate covenant and security as part of its risk credit management.

He said the risks the bank underwrote must be within their appetite and guidelines.

"The conclusion is, whether we like it or not, the 1MDB issue has become an issue that affects us all and if it is not managed, it would burden us and our grandchildren for a long time to come," said Kadir.

"So we must understand and urge for the best action to be taken to prevent any disaster. This is one of the biggest burdens which tests the ability of (Datuk Seri) Najib (Razak) as the prime minister and finance minister."

‎1MDB has secured a RM2 billion loan from magnate T. Ananda Krishan to pay off its overdue debts, after the latter committed to inject the sum into Powertek Investment Holdings Sdn Bhd (PIH).

This would give Ananda a majority stake in PIH, with 1MDB losing control of it, The Edge Financial Daily reported last Friday.

It said 1MDB had racked up after-tax losses of RM665.4 million from RM4.26 billion in revenue for its financial year ended March 2014, while its long-term borrowings had ballooned to RM33.5 billion.