马航从2001年至2014年，累积亏损达84亿令吉，国库控股点出马航困境3问题，认为马航不能再开拓毫无利益可图的航线。
国库控股推出的马航振兴计划报告中，指马航在过去14年累积亏损达84亿令吉，主要的问题是入不敷出。
「相对同样提供全服务的航空公司，马航盈收与员工比率只是国泰航空的51%、新加坡航空的38%。马航和廉价航空相比，成本劣势差距约40%。」
报告指出，马航財务的老问题有3个，第一是为了履行国家责任，基于推广大马旅游而开拓的无利可图航线。
第二，马航雇员人数比其他同级航空公司超出30%。第三，马航领导层无法掌握一些航空核心业务。
报告认为，马航的问题也需考量全球航空业面临的困境。
「在过去30年，全球航空业累积亏损达3900亿美元（1兆2300亿令吉），平均每年亏130亿美元（410亿令吉）。」
成长超越需求量
报告也提到，大马的市场非常竞爭，目前本地共有3至6家航空公司飞往多条主要航线，而且航空公司每年增长比率超越了需求量。
「航空公司每年成长10%，超过了每年8%的需求量。」
无论如何，报告书仍认为马航有其內在优势，例如拥有优秀的飞机师及空服人员、服务热情及提供优质產品。马航也获得多个航空奖项，包括在2001年至2012年，一连7年获得权威航空服务评估体系Skytrax评为最佳空服人员奖。2010年和2011年分別获得世界旅游奖评选为亚洲「最佳航空公司」。
此外，马航的飞机机种平均机龄只有4.2年（相对新航7.1年及国泰9.3年），这是政府在过去不断注资的结果。
国库控股吁6造合力拯救马航
马航在过去14年经歷3次拯救计划，仍无法抵销所面对的財务困境，马航大股东国库控股这次提出的大刀阔斧振兴计划，强调6造必须通力合作，否则马航无法从財困泥泞中走出来。
马航振兴计划报告书点名马航管理层、马航雇员、国库控股、政府、供应商及大马人需要个別负起在12项振兴计划下的职责，特別是马航管理层需草擬更详细的营运重组计划（需获国库控股批准），定时匯报重组进度。
振兴计划也为马航管理层设定目標，必须执行全新业务模式，拉近与东盟和中东重点航空公司的成本距离，提高每单位盈收10%至15%。
听取劳方意见
「管理层也有必要调整人手，通过专业、透明、公正及给予赔偿的方式，將雇员人数减至1万4000人。」
报告促马航雇员继续提供专业和优质服务，配合管理层调整工作模式及同意检討聘约。国库控股也鼓励雇员通过新设立的雇员咨询小组表达意见，让资方在进行重大决策时也可以听取劳方的意见。
报告则提醒国库控股领导层需要提供马航財务保障，监督振兴计划进度及提供计划可行的环境。
报告指出，马航除牌及重新上市的工作会由国库控股负责，他们也需在全球搜寻航空业专才加入马航高管团队，为高管设立目標。
国库控股也负责再培训员工的任务，协助那些被裁退的员工转移至其他两家合作的工作。
政府方面，报告促政府草擬《马航法令》及成立航空委员会，打造一个公平及进步的本地航空业。此外，政府也应速批马航重组所需的批文，包括转移营运的执照及维持目前马航的税收状况。
「政府应把目前属于联邦土地发展局的马航梳邦总部，割名给国库控股或马航，让它作为马航一站式培训中心。」
检討现有合约
至于马航供应商则应同意检討现有合约，所有的条款应符合市场惯例及行业標准。国库控股希望所有大马人支持马航重组计划，也希望人民继续选择马航。
马航在过去曾出现3次拯救行动，包括2002年广泛资產分拆（WAU），变卖马航飞机予中央政府抵债，之后由中央政府转租飞机予马航。
2006年，时任马航首席执行员拿督依德利斯推出第一业务翻转计划，2009年推出第二业务翻转计划，大刀阔斧为马航进行瘦身行动，斩除亏本航线，提高航班每公里收益。当时马航盈利出现曙光，成功转亏为盈，只是好景不常在。
2011年，马航和亚航达致股权交换协议，后来引起马航雇员职工会强力反弹，亦饱受政治人物批评，8个月后这项协议告吹，两家航空公司只在採购和飞机维修方面展开深入合作。
隆中环火车站改售票时间
从9月1日起，马航在吉隆坡中环火车站售票处的营业时间，將改为每週一至週日，上午7时至晚上10时。
马航今日发出文告指出，改变营运时间目的，是为了简化航空公司的运营效率，並確保售票系统不受影响。
所有售卖机票的方式，都能在马航的网站www.malaysiaairlines.com查询，或拨打客户专线1-300-88-3000（只限大马）及03-78433000（大马以外的国家）。
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Radical plan to revive MAS
To facilitate the migration of the existing business to Newco, the Government will table a new law in Parliament called the MAS Act.
Khazanah managing director Tan Sri Azman Mokhtar said that the new legislation would have a finite life and was needed to facilitate the migration of the existing business to Newco.
In a move to ensure that Newco has a leaner workforce and cleaner balance sheet to compete effectively in a tough operating environment, Khazanah wants to see job cuts of 30% from the existing MAS workforce of 20,000 employees.
It is one of the many conditions Khazanah has imposed on the management of MAS if it were to inject more funds into the ailing airline.
“In our opinion, we think that Newco with its business model will require a workforce of about 14,000. A net reduction of 30% is an across-the-board number,” said Azman at a media briefing yesterday.
The job cuts also affect the top leadership of MAS, which comprises a team of 500 staff called the Extended Leadership Team (ELT). Most of them were holding senior positions with long service.
Azman said the current chief executive officer (CEO) of MAS, Ahmad Jauhari Yahya, has indicated his wish to leave.
In commending the MAS CEO for having led the airline during its toughest period, Azman said Ahmad Jauhari would remain in place until the transition.
“We have embarked on a global search for a new CEO and have engaged an international firm to undertake the task,” he said.
Some of the other conditions of the 12-point plan mapped by Khazanah for the recovery of MAS include the relocation of the airline’s existing headquarters in Subang to the KL International Airport and Khazanah owning 100% of MAS.
Towards this end, Khazanah is undertaking a privatisation of MAS at 27 sen per share.
Azman clarified that Khazanah had engaged a consultancy to undertake a review of MAS on Feb 26 this year, before the first airline tragedy on March 8.
“The review came about after the Government was concerned about the financial and general state of affairs in MAS,” he said.
On March 8, a MAS aircraft en route to Beijing went missing and further exacerbated the airline’s losses.
The Cabinet approved MAS’ proposal on Wednesday and yesterday the various stakeholders, which are mainly the unions, existing airline management and some key directors, were summoned for a briefing.
The management and union have been told to work together to decide the shedding of the workforce, he said.
The MAS Act is expected to arm Khazanah with the necessary bite to carry out the radical measures, especially in negotiating the new contracts and collective agreements of the unions.
“The Act would allow for the Air Operators Certificate (AOC) to be transferred from the existing MAS to Newco and the assets and liabilities,” said Azman.
By July 1 next year, Newco is expected to take off.
Azman said that employees who were not absorbed into Newco would be offered a retrenchment scheme or given an option to be absorbed into a scheme for re-training.
Towards this end, Khazanah is working with three business process outsourcing firms that have vacancies for 3,500.
Azman said Khazanah explored several options in coming up with the plan.
“Putting in more money into MAS would not save MAS. So we felt that enabling MAS to start on a clean slate and putting in new money into Newco provided it met the conditions stated was the best option,” he said.
Friday, August 29, 2014
国库控股：非无条件救援马航
国库控股（Khazanah）董事经理丹斯里阿玆曼莫达表示，政府需平衡拯救马航和审慎管理公众资金的责任，并非无条件救援马航，後者需达到特定的财政目标才能获得持续金援。
他在媒体汇报会上指出，马航重组之路将颠簸难行，但需在审慎管理公众资金和拯救马航上需取得平衡。
“如果马航重组失败，届时我们需要谘询公众意见是否继续拯救马航。”
他解释，政府在2011年曾救援过马航，期间也落实过系列的重组计划，部份取得短期成功，但部份却因面对阻力宣告失败，但相信这次的重组计划透过深度重组，加上获得监管单位的支持，将可取得成功。
他解释，透过成立新公司，将可让马航抛弃过去的营运模式，甚至是重洽合约来重新出发，同时航空委员会的成立，以及马航法令（Mas Act）的设立也将确保整个重组计划顺利进行。
但阿玆曼莫达说，政府并非拯救马航，国库控股是有条件进一步投资马航60亿令吉。
新旧公司各得30亿资金
根据计划，马航新旧公司将各得30亿令吉资金，旧公司的30亿令吉将涵盖14亿令吉的私有化活动，其馀16亿令吉则确保新旧公司顺利交接，而新公司也将取得30亿令吉资金，但只有在达到国库控股设定的目标下才可获得释出。
不过，他指出，若出现油价飙涨等不可预见因素，国库控股可能为相关目标松绑。
“整体来说，我们并非援助马航，我们将可从後者重新上市，或旗下业务上市回收60亿令吉资金。但是，我们不会分拆马航业务。”
他认为，马航在重生阶段维持上市地位将面对监管等挑战，但若业务成功扭转乾坤後，重新上市无论从控制或财务角度来看都是对集团最佳的选项。
建议维持马航名称
另一方面，阿玆曼莫达表示，新旧公司交接至关重要，因此在交接期间需确保旧公司顺利运作，但旧公司的成本架构并不可行，将通过委任新首席执行员（CEO）等管理团队，甚至拟定新营运结构让领导集团重新出发。
“我们将从国内和国际航空业人才中寻找新接班人选，希望能在年杪进行公佈。”
但他建议维持马航的名称不变，因国人对马航都拥有独特的回忆。
询及马航裁员和削减航线计划，阿玆曼莫达说，相关细节仍在拟定中，将由马航全权负责。
“我们与航空专家洽商後，发现马航最好专注8至10个小时航程的区域航线，因此将对欧洲和美国等其他航线进行评估。”
《重建国家标誌：马航重组计划》
12项目配套计划
1．成立新公司，完成马航除牌和重新上市工作
2．注资60亿令吉，需符合严格的条件以及减低接近120%的净负债
3．重整业务，专注於区域性网络、更低的成本结构和更关注收益管理
4．搬迁总部至吉隆坡国际机场
5．加强诚信和保全
6．检讨供应商合约以及重新谈判
7．整顿领导层
8．精简30%的员工，新公司需要1万4千名员工
9．加强业界关係以及内部整顿
10．重新培训、提供就业机会和重新调派员工
11．取得政府支援，包括为专为马航设立法令和成立航空委员会
12．.继续与外界各相关单位和人士沟通
他在媒体汇报会上指出，马航重组之路将颠簸难行，但需在审慎管理公众资金和拯救马航上需取得平衡。
“如果马航重组失败，届时我们需要谘询公众意见是否继续拯救马航。”
他解释，政府在2011年曾救援过马航，期间也落实过系列的重组计划，部份取得短期成功，但部份却因面对阻力宣告失败，但相信这次的重组计划透过深度重组，加上获得监管单位的支持，将可取得成功。
他解释，透过成立新公司，将可让马航抛弃过去的营运模式，甚至是重洽合约来重新出发，同时航空委员会的成立，以及马航法令（Mas Act）的设立也将确保整个重组计划顺利进行。
但阿玆曼莫达说，政府并非拯救马航，国库控股是有条件进一步投资马航60亿令吉。
新旧公司各得30亿资金
根据计划，马航新旧公司将各得30亿令吉资金，旧公司的30亿令吉将涵盖14亿令吉的私有化活动，其馀16亿令吉则确保新旧公司顺利交接，而新公司也将取得30亿令吉资金，但只有在达到国库控股设定的目标下才可获得释出。
不过，他指出，若出现油价飙涨等不可预见因素，国库控股可能为相关目标松绑。
“整体来说，我们并非援助马航，我们将可从後者重新上市，或旗下业务上市回收60亿令吉资金。但是，我们不会分拆马航业务。”
他认为，马航在重生阶段维持上市地位将面对监管等挑战，但若业务成功扭转乾坤後，重新上市无论从控制或财务角度来看都是对集团最佳的选项。
建议维持马航名称
另一方面，阿玆曼莫达表示，新旧公司交接至关重要，因此在交接期间需确保旧公司顺利运作，但旧公司的成本架构并不可行，将通过委任新首席执行员（CEO）等管理团队，甚至拟定新营运结构让领导集团重新出发。
“我们将从国内和国际航空业人才中寻找新接班人选，希望能在年杪进行公佈。”
但他建议维持马航的名称不变，因国人对马航都拥有独特的回忆。
询及马航裁员和削减航线计划，阿玆曼莫达说，相关细节仍在拟定中，将由马航全权负责。
“我们与航空专家洽商後，发现马航最好专注8至10个小时航程的区域航线，因此将对欧洲和美国等其他航线进行评估。”
《重建国家标誌：马航重组计划》
12项目配套计划
1．成立新公司，完成马航除牌和重新上市工作
2．注资60亿令吉，需符合严格的条件以及减低接近120%的净负债
3．重整业务，专注於区域性网络、更低的成本结构和更关注收益管理
4．搬迁总部至吉隆坡国际机场
5．加强诚信和保全
6．检讨供应商合约以及重新谈判
7．整顿领导层
8．精简30%的员工，新公司需要1万4千名员工
9．加强业界关係以及内部整顿
10．重新培训、提供就业机会和重新调派员工
11．取得政府支援，包括为专为马航设立法令和成立航空委员会
12．.继续与外界各相关单位和人士沟通
Overinsuring for fire-insurance mortgage
BANKS are exploiting mortgagors by taking out fire insurance on the mortgaged properties to cover the full amount of the loan which in almost all cases will be about 90% of the market value of the properties.
Market value is the combination of the cost of the land and of the building on it. Fire insurance does not cover land, but only the cost of re-building the building(s) on it.
In a worst case scenario, a building badly damaged by fire or any other calamity covered by the insurance, may have to be pulled down completely and rebuilt.
The insurance is meant to cover all the costs of doing this, which includes pulling down the damaged structure, clearing the debris, architects and engineers fees and cost of reconstructing the building. This will not come up to 90% of the market value of the property.
When mortgagees purchase fire insurance on the market value, they are exploiting consumers and unfairly enriching themselves.
This is because the insurance premiums are considered “loans” and charged to the customers’ accounts and interest is charged on every sen outstanding. Thus banks earn more in interest than they would if the insurance does not cover the cost of the land as well.
Where the banks have sister insurance companies, the fire insurance is bought from these sister companies. Thus both the mortgagees and their sister companies end-up unfairly enriching themselves; the banks by earning more interest and the insurance companies by the higher premises for coverage of land as well but on which no payment will be made. This does not seem to be wrong to them. They do not consider this illegal enrichment.
But when a claim arises, the insurance company will never pay the full insured sum if it is more than the cost of rebuilding the property.
Any property owner claiming the full insured sum (if it is more than the cost of re-building) will be curtly told fire insurance is not for enrichment purposes. Bank Negara Malaysia must stamp out this unfair business practice by banks and insurance companies.
Since payment for any claims is strictly based on the actual sum required for restitution/rebuilding, the practice of mortgages buying insurance including any part of the cost of land must be stopped.
S.M. MOHAMED IDRIS
President
Consumers’ Association of Penang
Market value is the combination of the cost of the land and of the building on it. Fire insurance does not cover land, but only the cost of re-building the building(s) on it.
In a worst case scenario, a building badly damaged by fire or any other calamity covered by the insurance, may have to be pulled down completely and rebuilt.
The insurance is meant to cover all the costs of doing this, which includes pulling down the damaged structure, clearing the debris, architects and engineers fees and cost of reconstructing the building. This will not come up to 90% of the market value of the property.
When mortgagees purchase fire insurance on the market value, they are exploiting consumers and unfairly enriching themselves.
This is because the insurance premiums are considered “loans” and charged to the customers’ accounts and interest is charged on every sen outstanding. Thus banks earn more in interest than they would if the insurance does not cover the cost of the land as well.
Where the banks have sister insurance companies, the fire insurance is bought from these sister companies. Thus both the mortgagees and their sister companies end-up unfairly enriching themselves; the banks by earning more interest and the insurance companies by the higher premises for coverage of land as well but on which no payment will be made. This does not seem to be wrong to them. They do not consider this illegal enrichment.
But when a claim arises, the insurance company will never pay the full insured sum if it is more than the cost of rebuilding the property.
Any property owner claiming the full insured sum (if it is more than the cost of re-building) will be curtly told fire insurance is not for enrichment purposes. Bank Negara Malaysia must stamp out this unfair business practice by banks and insurance companies.
Since payment for any claims is strictly based on the actual sum required for restitution/rebuilding, the practice of mortgages buying insurance including any part of the cost of land must be stopped.
S.M. MOHAMED IDRIS
President
Consumers’ Association of Penang
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Bernanke: 2008 Meltdown Was Worse Than Great Depression
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, a prominent student of the Great Depression, contends that the 2008 financial crisis was actually worse than its 1930s counterpart.
Mr. Bernanke is quoted making the statement in a document filed on Aug. 22 with the U.S. Court of Federal Claims as part of a lawsuit linked to the 2008 government bailout of insurance giant American International Group Inc.AIG +0.14%
“September and October of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in global history, including the Great Depression,” Mr. Bernanke is quoted as saying in the document filed with the court. Of the 13 “most important financial institutions in the United States, 12 were at risk of failure within a period of a week or two.”
Former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is quoted in the document offering a similarly apocalyptic assessment. From Sept. 6 through Sept. 22, the economy was essentially “in free fall,” he said.
Starr International Co., a company run by AIG’s former chief executive, Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, sued the U.S. government in 2011, seeking billions of dollars in damages over AIG’s rescue. Starr’s suit alleges that parts of the government’s $182 billion bailout and sale of AIG assets were unconstitutional.
Asked why he thought it was essential for the government to rescue AIG, Bernanke said, “AIG’s demise would be a catastrophe” and “could have resulted in a 1930s-style global financial and economic meltdown, with catastrophic implications for production, income, and jobs.”
Also, the former Fed chief felt comfortable that the overall business was viable despite the troubles of the so-called financial products division.
“It was our assessment that they had plenty of collateral to repay our loan,” Mr. Bernanke said.
Mr. Bernanke is quoted making the statement in a document filed on Aug. 22 with the U.S. Court of Federal Claims as part of a lawsuit linked to the 2008 government bailout of insurance giant American International Group Inc.AIG +0.14%
“September and October of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in global history, including the Great Depression,” Mr. Bernanke is quoted as saying in the document filed with the court. Of the 13 “most important financial institutions in the United States, 12 were at risk of failure within a period of a week or two.”
Former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is quoted in the document offering a similarly apocalyptic assessment. From Sept. 6 through Sept. 22, the economy was essentially “in free fall,” he said.
Starr International Co., a company run by AIG’s former chief executive, Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, sued the U.S. government in 2011, seeking billions of dollars in damages over AIG’s rescue. Starr’s suit alleges that parts of the government’s $182 billion bailout and sale of AIG assets were unconstitutional.
Asked why he thought it was essential for the government to rescue AIG, Bernanke said, “AIG’s demise would be a catastrophe” and “could have resulted in a 1930s-style global financial and economic meltdown, with catastrophic implications for production, income, and jobs.”
Also, the former Fed chief felt comfortable that the overall business was viable despite the troubles of the so-called financial products division.
“It was our assessment that they had plenty of collateral to repay our loan,” Mr. Bernanke said.
前景看俏‧怡保工程維持“買進”
肯納格研究指出，怡保工程2015財政年首季業績表現符合該行及市場預測。該行將其2015及2016年淨利預測保持不變，分別為7億1千720萬及8億6千零10萬令吉。
肯納格看好該公司後市表現，其中利好包括手握50億令吉工程合約，為未來至少4年盈利提供透明度、私有化怡保置地（IJMLAND,5215,主板產業組）可推動2016年淨利增長20%、以及正在收購加影外環大道（SILK）可加強重复收入，因其大道將在2015年調升過路費。
大眾研究指出，怡保工程2015年首季淨利1億3千340萬令吉，符合該行及市場預測。
預料其產業領域未來季度盈利將增強，特別是首季受到高成本及刊登廣告及促銷開銷的影響，而其未入賬銷售為20億令吉，並預期另外20億令吉銷售額。
大眾認為，該公司旗下的建築業務盈利，料因更好賺幅而回揚，及較低外匯虧損等；而種植業務料在本季度回彈，主要是較高銷售額及原棕油平均價格所致。
馬銀行研究指出，該公司2015年首季淨利符合該行預測，惟卻低於一般市場預測。
該行將2015及2016年淨利預測上調4%及3%，分別至6億1千830萬令吉、6億8千零50萬令吉，而2017年則為7億5千900萬令吉，主要反映較好盈利前景。
馬銀行指出，截至今年6月杪，該公司手握48億令吉工程合約、強勁未入賬產業銷售20億令吉、蓬勃的鮮果串生產成長、及旗下國內大道業務分拆自行上市及脫售海外資產等利好，支撐未來盈利表現。
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
家债已受到控制 国行不再推出新降温措施
国家银行宣布，随着过去数个月推出的降温措施，已经有效地遏制了我国家庭债务的增长，因此在未来几个月内，国行将不会再推出任何新的降温措施。
据了解，我国家庭债务已从过去6个季度以来出现下滑。在今年第二季度，家债增长已放缓至10.3%。
国家银行助理总裁苏克夫星（Sukhdave Singh）表示，鉴于目前家债增长已呈现放缓趋势，目前似乎已不需要再推出更多的措施，但也要视乎其他因素是否能够持续发挥作用。
2013年，我国家债飙升至国内生产总值（GDP）的86.8%，成为亚洲家债最高的国家，迫使国行推出更多措施，以改善这个问题。透过这些措施，家债增长已从2010年的15.1%与2013年的13.5%，下降至今年的11.7%。
据了解，我国家庭债务已从过去6个季度以来出现下滑。在今年第二季度，家债增长已放缓至10.3%。
国家银行助理总裁苏克夫星（Sukhdave Singh）表示，鉴于目前家债增长已呈现放缓趋势，目前似乎已不需要再推出更多的措施，但也要视乎其他因素是否能够持续发挥作用。
2013年，我国家债飙升至国内生产总值（GDP）的86.8%，成为亚洲家债最高的国家，迫使国行推出更多措施，以改善这个问题。透过这些措施，家债增长已从2010年的15.1%与2013年的13.5%，下降至今年的11.7%。
Bumi Armada
布米阿玛达(5210)今早公布附加股发售价后，全日股价急挫，收市时只报3.04令吉，滑落22仙或6.75%，是全场第4大跌幅股只，全日转手量达1161万股。
该公司今早停牌一个小时，以公布之前宣布的2配1附加股的发售价，附加股发售价每股订在1.35令吉，比以26日(昨天)收市价(3.26令吉)计算出来的除权价1.98令吉打拆31%。
除了附加股之外，该公司亦建议2送1红股。
该公司今早停牌一个小时，以公布之前宣布的2配1附加股的发售价，附加股发售价每股订在1.35令吉，比以26日(昨天)收市价(3.26令吉)计算出来的除权价1.98令吉打拆31%。
除了附加股之外，该公司亦建议2送1红股。
RHB Research maintains Buy on Ahmad Zaki
RHB Research has maintained its Buy call on Ahmad Zaki with a fair value of 96 sen, adding that the group is a good small-cap proxy to public infrastructure spending given its involvement in the construction of the Klang Valley MRT project and various government facilities.
In a note on Wednesday, its current outstanding construction orderbook of MRM2.1bil may increase by RM1.55bil to RM3.6bil when the RM1.55bil East Klang Valley Expressway (EKVE) hits the ground over the immediate term.
“We also like Ahmad Zaki for its stable of concession assets comprising a highly profitable bunkering operation at the Kemaman Supply Base in Terengganu, the International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM) Teaching-Hospital currently under construction (38% completed), and the EKVE under planning.
“In addition, there is tremendous value in its 21,000ha oil palm plantations (23% planted) in West Kalimantan, Indonesia,” it said.
RHB expects Ahmad Zaki’s net profit to hit the RM30mil mark in FY15 from less than RM6mil in FY13, backed by improved construction profits as key construction jobs hit major billing milestones, and in the absence of further provision for overseas losses.
Also, reduced plantation losses at its oil palm plantations in Indonesia, which begin to attain maturity, organic growth at its bunkering operation, interest savings thanks to RM103.3mil proceeds from the recent rights issue, and normalization of its effective tax rate.
In a note on Wednesday, its current outstanding construction orderbook of MRM2.1bil may increase by RM1.55bil to RM3.6bil when the RM1.55bil East Klang Valley Expressway (EKVE) hits the ground over the immediate term.
“We also like Ahmad Zaki for its stable of concession assets comprising a highly profitable bunkering operation at the Kemaman Supply Base in Terengganu, the International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM) Teaching-Hospital currently under construction (38% completed), and the EKVE under planning.
“In addition, there is tremendous value in its 21,000ha oil palm plantations (23% planted) in West Kalimantan, Indonesia,” it said.
RHB expects Ahmad Zaki’s net profit to hit the RM30mil mark in FY15 from less than RM6mil in FY13, backed by improved construction profits as key construction jobs hit major billing milestones, and in the absence of further provision for overseas losses.
Also, reduced plantation losses at its oil palm plantations in Indonesia, which begin to attain maturity, organic growth at its bunkering operation, interest savings thanks to RM103.3mil proceeds from the recent rights issue, and normalization of its effective tax rate.
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
洁蒂：再升息得看经济风险
国家银行总裁丹斯里洁蒂今日说，我国今年內是否再度升息或以调整法定储备率（SRR）作为调控银行游资，这仍需全面评估金融失衡、经济成长、內需和通膨风险、外围变化等潜在风险，然后才会作出定夺。
需评估各方风险
她说，我国必须评估局势，从国內需求、成长和通膨风险乃至金融失衡，这些都会在评估中，升息与否就看这些评估。
她强调，整个经济环境仍不时改变，会不断评估当前局面和潜在风险，升息与否就看这些评估。
我国刚於7月升息0.25至3.25%，多名经济学家认为，若在一年內两度升息会来得太快而恐促成更大通膨，上调SRR至適当水平是控制银行体系游资的另一选项。上回SRR的调整是2011年7月，规定银行法定储备率由3%调高至4%。
洁蒂为国家银行博物馆与艺廊举行的东西方贸易与马来群岛钱幣展主持推展礼后说，是否透过SRR调整，这还要慎审评估。
“全球的游资显著转向，倘若是基本面转向而造成全球游资转向，才会用上SRR；倘若只是短暂的转向，不会用上SRR这个工具，只依赖公开市场的营运情况。”
她认为，倘若发现过剩游资，国行可透过货幣市场的营运来吸资，更仰赖以市场为基础的工具。
银行体系游资充足
她说，只在金融体系游资的基本面转变才会用上SRR，目前是確保银行体系游资充足，也確保市场不会游资有过剩，促成贷款过度成长。
“我们有很广泛的工具来管控金融体系，大马在金融市场逐步迈向成熟，不全然仰赖升息、SRR，也透过宏观审慎措施和其他方式，確保我国金融体系的稳定。”
谈到金融失衡与通膨风险，她说，根据评估，基於具备多元化经济，我国处於稳健的成长轨道上，外围环境使贸易作卓越贡献，私人界有很蓬勃的投资活动，经济成长稳定。
通膨风险升高 短暂现象
“同时，通膨风险升高，惟根据评估，这种局面是短暂的；这是价格调整的过程中，形成短暂的通膨现象，一旦到了2016年便会逐渐持稳，长期平均通膨率將来到3%左右，而政策重点是使通膨朝向长期平均率。”
回答是否有必要在实施消费税前夕，把通膨稳锁定在一个水平，她说，这可通过很多方法实行，包括提高觉醒度与打击牟取暴利的执法，使通膨不会形成次轮衝击，同时確保薪资调整可確保通膨立於平均水平內。
货幣料持续波动
谈到美减债与货幣波动，洁蒂预期货幣波动持续，以朝向政策正常化的调整，欧洲与日本仍然祭出刺激方案。
她说，基於地缘政治紧张局面，一些结构转变都造成波动，循序渐进减债，无形中减低波动。
她指出，大马的韧力让我国在全球金融风暴期间成功减低衝击，目前金融领域支撑经济成长的环境，利惠我国与世界的贸易。
大马散装货运 矿价跌船运需求增
目标价：2.53令吉
最新进展
大马散装货运（MAYBULK，5077，主板贸服股）次季核心净利为1390万令吉，将上半年净利推高至3690万令吉，符合预期。
按年而言，核心净利扬6%，由转亏为盈的联营公司所推动。上半年净利涨66.9%，归功于稳健的联营净利和干散货业务的亏损收窄。
行家建议
中国海运铁矿进口料增长12%，达8亿9420万公吨，因澳洲铁矿产能显著扩大，促使铁矿价格暴跌20%。这将推高大马散装货运干散货运船的需求。
虽然联营公司PACC岸外服务控股（简称POSH）在墨西哥的联营公司因客户不付款而面临风险，不过，我们相信最坏的情况已经过去，因相信墨西哥财团Grupo Pegaso有意购入POSH在墨西哥联营公司的股权。
这可为POSH提供一个套现且脱离此困扰的机会，对POSH属于正面发展。
我们维持财测、“超越大市”及2.53令吉的目标价格。
Friday, August 22, 2014
Real estate: Science, art or perception?
The Edge Malaysia
Three things that happened recently do not answer the above question, but can help in providing some ideas.
The first was a jail term and fine for the promoters of a company known as Profitable Plots in Singapore. They were marketing affordable landbank in Canada, endorsed by former world-class footballers in television advertisements during Premier League games.
Buyers were attracted by the view that rising land values would give them a windfall profit. They were given records and certificates, and no amount of investment was too small. No interest was given though, as they were told that the real money was in future sales.
Sadly, it was a Madoff-like Ponzi scheme. Millions of dollars were lost all over the region.
The second newsworthy report was Permodalan Nasional Bhd’s proposed idea to merge its listed and unlisted property companies under a larger CapitaLand Singapore-type company. The suggested companies included I&P Group Sdn Bhd, Sime Darby Property Bhd and S P Setia Bhd.
All the brands have a credible position in the consumer marketplace. Each of the CEOs have performed admirably. If I remember my history correctly, PNB was also tasked with increasing the number of bumiputera CEOs in the country.
Merging them into one company does not make sense as you may undermine their respective reputation and track record, and create leadership issues. Furthermore, by reducing the number of companies, there will be less places for bumiputera talent to train in, which is not in the national interest.
The à la CapitaLand model is also unnecessary. Singapore needed its property companies to go out of the country as the local market is too small. We do not have that problem and the number of second and third-tier developers in the country gives you a clear indication that niche developers in small neighbourhoods can also thrive with cheaper overheads.
Let me give you an example of how a, PNB company created talent in the early days.
In the 1970s, I&P was known as Island & Peninsular Bhd — a medium second- tier listed developer in Penang. It was owned by Ban Hin Lee Bank Bhd, which in turn was taken over by PNB. The Island & Peninsular CEO who took it to new heights was Raja Azwa Raja Ahmad, the former chief financial officer of AIA who left the latter after 15 years to answer the call for more bumiputera involvement in real estate. Thanks to his tutelage and training, today we have people such as Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh, Datuk Abdul Wahab Maskan, Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor and Mahadzir Azizan, all of whom benefitted from his years of experience in an American company and his leadership, and they went on to lead great companies.
Raja Azwa moved the company from its Penang base to Kuala Lumpur and bought landbank in areas now known as Wangsa Maju and Bandar Kinrara, against good competition and despite resistance from his then Civil Service Board. Today, I&P is a Tier 1 company with great landbank.
Dynamic CEOs are created, not born. The more opportunities there are, the better and larger the pool of these CEOs. Tun Mahathir Mohamad understood that and created colleges to ensure more Malay children had a college education. While it did the trick initially, the quality of education over the years has fallen due to poor teacher training. That is being addressed today.
A merger of all these brands and the resultant upheaval is, in my humble opinion, not necessary. Just dump the non-performing assets into one of those companies and let them put best practice into play. And create new CEOs.
The third issue arises from the concern about China’s investment in Iskandar Malaysia via well-funded, experienced Chinese developers, which even specialise in creating new landbank out of thin air or water. The Chinese are savvy investors. As the CEO of Country Garden said, “Malaysia is in our scope as the country is stable and there is a large local population that is multilingual and finance is available.” He added that “We are here for the long haul and our brand of affordable and luxury homes will sell well locally and internationally.”
Certainly, looking at the amount of pre-planning, quick turnaround and landscaping that they have done, they have put a lot of pressure on our local developers to catch up. Their presence in Iskandar gives the area an international outlook. The more the news media reports about other countries investing in Johor, the more people will want to migrate there to work. Already there is migration of people looking for work from Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang to Iskandar.
There is a need to find housing for them. Workers’ housing is a growing dilemma in Iskandar. But the secret to Iskandar’s immediate future is to push for even more investment. One possible route is to establish a “Dubai-style” Investment Centre to make it easy for international investors to come to Iskandar to work, live and invest. The current system is opaque, with many agencies involved. The Singapore Economic Development Board is another good example.
But is there an oversupply in Iskandar? If there is, how do we address it? Are there insufficient people to fill the homes under construction? Maybe we have overlooked another potential investor in our midst.
The recent boat tragedies involving migrant workers, legal and illegal, elicited a response from a newspaper in Indonesia that these tragedies will happen as there are four million legal Indonesians and 2.5 million illegal immigrants from the country working in Malaysia. That set me thinking — how many countries are represented here?
An official from the Bangladesh embassy said there were 800,000 of its citizens here legally and maybe another 200,000 illegally. Add to that the Nigerians in “colleges”, Iranians, Pakistanis, Egyptians, Thais, Vietnamese and thousands of Nepalese in the security sector, and more to come as maids. I believe we do not have a problem finding buyers or even tenants for our properties.
Quick math is useful.
Officially, we have 30 million Malaysians and they are divided into five million in Sabah and Sarawak and 25 million in Peninsular Malaysia.
The major migration platform for all foreigners is Peninsular Malaysia since there are more urban cities here and, like London, Malaysian city streets, according to illegal immigrants, are paved with gold.
If the migrants are included, the number of people here could be eight million, give or take a million — this is a guess as no one knows for sure. The funds earned by agencies and runners in bringing them in, legally and illegally, runs into the billions. The eight million represent a 32% increase in our local population density. Many of them are beginning to marry local Malaysians to get a blue card. So we may see a rise in our legal population, both by birth and naturalisation, and Malaysia’s cultural diversity may change. How many countries could have a fifth column in Malaysia?
But make no mistake, first-generation migrants will also require housing, transport and jobs, and their cultural beliefs and habits could be at odds with Malaysians’ initially, but we are very good at adapting other cultures as our own. Shisha pipes and quat are two practices new to us but quickly adopted by Malaysians as their own with new flavours.
Will there be a property overhang in Iskandar? It depends on so many imponderables and where you are viewing the numbers from.
The lovely thing about our beloved country is that we have endless possibilities.
Three things that happened recently do not answer the above question, but can help in providing some ideas.
The first was a jail term and fine for the promoters of a company known as Profitable Plots in Singapore. They were marketing affordable landbank in Canada, endorsed by former world-class footballers in television advertisements during Premier League games.
Buyers were attracted by the view that rising land values would give them a windfall profit. They were given records and certificates, and no amount of investment was too small. No interest was given though, as they were told that the real money was in future sales.
Sadly, it was a Madoff-like Ponzi scheme. Millions of dollars were lost all over the region.
The second newsworthy report was Permodalan Nasional Bhd’s proposed idea to merge its listed and unlisted property companies under a larger CapitaLand Singapore-type company. The suggested companies included I&P Group Sdn Bhd, Sime Darby Property Bhd and S P Setia Bhd.
All the brands have a credible position in the consumer marketplace. Each of the CEOs have performed admirably. If I remember my history correctly, PNB was also tasked with increasing the number of bumiputera CEOs in the country.
Merging them into one company does not make sense as you may undermine their respective reputation and track record, and create leadership issues. Furthermore, by reducing the number of companies, there will be less places for bumiputera talent to train in, which is not in the national interest.
The à la CapitaLand model is also unnecessary. Singapore needed its property companies to go out of the country as the local market is too small. We do not have that problem and the number of second and third-tier developers in the country gives you a clear indication that niche developers in small neighbourhoods can also thrive with cheaper overheads.
Let me give you an example of how a, PNB company created talent in the early days.
In the 1970s, I&P was known as Island & Peninsular Bhd — a medium second- tier listed developer in Penang. It was owned by Ban Hin Lee Bank Bhd, which in turn was taken over by PNB. The Island & Peninsular CEO who took it to new heights was Raja Azwa Raja Ahmad, the former chief financial officer of AIA who left the latter after 15 years to answer the call for more bumiputera involvement in real estate. Thanks to his tutelage and training, today we have people such as Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh, Datuk Abdul Wahab Maskan, Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor and Mahadzir Azizan, all of whom benefitted from his years of experience in an American company and his leadership, and they went on to lead great companies.
Raja Azwa moved the company from its Penang base to Kuala Lumpur and bought landbank in areas now known as Wangsa Maju and Bandar Kinrara, against good competition and despite resistance from his then Civil Service Board. Today, I&P is a Tier 1 company with great landbank.
Dynamic CEOs are created, not born. The more opportunities there are, the better and larger the pool of these CEOs. Tun Mahathir Mohamad understood that and created colleges to ensure more Malay children had a college education. While it did the trick initially, the quality of education over the years has fallen due to poor teacher training. That is being addressed today.
A merger of all these brands and the resultant upheaval is, in my humble opinion, not necessary. Just dump the non-performing assets into one of those companies and let them put best practice into play. And create new CEOs.
The third issue arises from the concern about China’s investment in Iskandar Malaysia via well-funded, experienced Chinese developers, which even specialise in creating new landbank out of thin air or water. The Chinese are savvy investors. As the CEO of Country Garden said, “Malaysia is in our scope as the country is stable and there is a large local population that is multilingual and finance is available.” He added that “We are here for the long haul and our brand of affordable and luxury homes will sell well locally and internationally.”
Certainly, looking at the amount of pre-planning, quick turnaround and landscaping that they have done, they have put a lot of pressure on our local developers to catch up. Their presence in Iskandar gives the area an international outlook. The more the news media reports about other countries investing in Johor, the more people will want to migrate there to work. Already there is migration of people looking for work from Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang to Iskandar.
There is a need to find housing for them. Workers’ housing is a growing dilemma in Iskandar. But the secret to Iskandar’s immediate future is to push for even more investment. One possible route is to establish a “Dubai-style” Investment Centre to make it easy for international investors to come to Iskandar to work, live and invest. The current system is opaque, with many agencies involved. The Singapore Economic Development Board is another good example.
But is there an oversupply in Iskandar? If there is, how do we address it? Are there insufficient people to fill the homes under construction? Maybe we have overlooked another potential investor in our midst.
The recent boat tragedies involving migrant workers, legal and illegal, elicited a response from a newspaper in Indonesia that these tragedies will happen as there are four million legal Indonesians and 2.5 million illegal immigrants from the country working in Malaysia. That set me thinking — how many countries are represented here?
An official from the Bangladesh embassy said there were 800,000 of its citizens here legally and maybe another 200,000 illegally. Add to that the Nigerians in “colleges”, Iranians, Pakistanis, Egyptians, Thais, Vietnamese and thousands of Nepalese in the security sector, and more to come as maids. I believe we do not have a problem finding buyers or even tenants for our properties.
Quick math is useful.
Officially, we have 30 million Malaysians and they are divided into five million in Sabah and Sarawak and 25 million in Peninsular Malaysia.
The major migration platform for all foreigners is Peninsular Malaysia since there are more urban cities here and, like London, Malaysian city streets, according to illegal immigrants, are paved with gold.
If the migrants are included, the number of people here could be eight million, give or take a million — this is a guess as no one knows for sure. The funds earned by agencies and runners in bringing them in, legally and illegally, runs into the billions. The eight million represent a 32% increase in our local population density. Many of them are beginning to marry local Malaysians to get a blue card. So we may see a rise in our legal population, both by birth and naturalisation, and Malaysia’s cultural diversity may change. How many countries could have a fifth column in Malaysia?
But make no mistake, first-generation migrants will also require housing, transport and jobs, and their cultural beliefs and habits could be at odds with Malaysians’ initially, but we are very good at adapting other cultures as our own. Shisha pipes and quat are two practices new to us but quickly adopted by Malaysians as their own with new flavours.
Will there be a property overhang in Iskandar? It depends on so many imponderables and where you are viewing the numbers from.
The lovely thing about our beloved country is that we have endless possibilities.
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
CIMB Research lowers AirAsia X target price
CIMB Equities Research has lowered AirAsia X’s target price from 75 sen to 72 sen which is 12.2% below the last traded price of 82 sen after wider-than-expected losses and the recent run-up in its share price.
It said on Wednesday AAX’s Q2, 2016 results were below expectations, with H1, 2014 core net loss of RM225mil already exceeding its previous full-year loss estimate due to weaker-than-expected yields.
“As such, we more than double our loss forecasts for FY14-15 and reduce our target price, based on its average P/BV since IPO of 1.75 times (from 1.5 times previously).
“We believe that Malaysia Airlines (MAS) will be forced to cut back capacity deployments in 2015 and AAX’s FY15 losses should be reduced. With the share price already up 19% from its recent low, however, we downgrade the stock from Hold to Reduce.
“De-rating catalysts include likely continuing annual losses in Malaysia until FY16 and at least two years of start-up losses from new associates in Thailand and Indonesia. Switch to AirAsia,” it said.
AAX’s revenue per ASK capacity (RASK) fell 19% on-year during 2Q14, continuing from 1Q’s 18% on-year decline and 4Q13’s 17% drop, due to excessive capacity expansion since 3Q13.
Australia’s RASK fell 23% on-year in the quarter, a slight improvement from 1Q’s 30% fall, but North Asia’s RASK decline worsened from a 5.2% on-year fall during 1Q to a 6.6% on-year decline during 2Q14 as Nagoya was launched in mid-March.
The 49%-owned associates, Thai AAX and Indonesia AAX, reported combined start-up losses of RM14mil as TAAX began operations in April and started flying to Seoul in June. Malaysia losses to narrow in 2H14 and FY15
“The 2Q is AAX’s seasonally-weakest quarter and the 2H14 should see a natural seasonal uplift,” said the research house.
CIMB Research also pointed out as much of FY14’s capacity expansion was put in place in 2H13, the on-year RASK declines should narrow over the next half year as demand picks up to fill the available capacity.
It forecast losses should narrow further in FY15 as AAX is only adding two to three planes to the Malaysia fleet next year, with the remaining five to six deliveries allocated to TAAX and IAAX. This is less than half the pace of the 11 plane additions to AAX’s Malaysia fleet over 2013-14.
“Potential MAS capacity cutbacks will also directly benefit AAX. But associate losses will pick up. TAAX will record losses when new Tokyo Narita and Osaka flights start in September, as will IAAX when it starts flights in 4Q14. These are necessary long-term investments and investors will need to be patient in the near term,” it said.
It said on Wednesday AAX’s Q2, 2016 results were below expectations, with H1, 2014 core net loss of RM225mil already exceeding its previous full-year loss estimate due to weaker-than-expected yields.
“As such, we more than double our loss forecasts for FY14-15 and reduce our target price, based on its average P/BV since IPO of 1.75 times (from 1.5 times previously).
“We believe that Malaysia Airlines (MAS) will be forced to cut back capacity deployments in 2015 and AAX’s FY15 losses should be reduced. With the share price already up 19% from its recent low, however, we downgrade the stock from Hold to Reduce.
“De-rating catalysts include likely continuing annual losses in Malaysia until FY16 and at least two years of start-up losses from new associates in Thailand and Indonesia. Switch to AirAsia,” it said.
AAX’s revenue per ASK capacity (RASK) fell 19% on-year during 2Q14, continuing from 1Q’s 18% on-year decline and 4Q13’s 17% drop, due to excessive capacity expansion since 3Q13.
Australia’s RASK fell 23% on-year in the quarter, a slight improvement from 1Q’s 30% fall, but North Asia’s RASK decline worsened from a 5.2% on-year fall during 1Q to a 6.6% on-year decline during 2Q14 as Nagoya was launched in mid-March.
The 49%-owned associates, Thai AAX and Indonesia AAX, reported combined start-up losses of RM14mil as TAAX began operations in April and started flying to Seoul in June. Malaysia losses to narrow in 2H14 and FY15
“The 2Q is AAX’s seasonally-weakest quarter and the 2H14 should see a natural seasonal uplift,” said the research house.
CIMB Research also pointed out as much of FY14’s capacity expansion was put in place in 2H13, the on-year RASK declines should narrow over the next half year as demand picks up to fill the available capacity.
It forecast losses should narrow further in FY15 as AAX is only adding two to three planes to the Malaysia fleet next year, with the remaining five to six deliveries allocated to TAAX and IAAX. This is less than half the pace of the 11 plane additions to AAX’s Malaysia fleet over 2013-14.
“Potential MAS capacity cutbacks will also directly benefit AAX. But associate losses will pick up. TAAX will record losses when new Tokyo Narita and Osaka flights start in September, as will IAAX when it starts flights in 4Q14. These are necessary long-term investments and investors will need to be patient in the near term,” it said.
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
How you’ll know if it’s time for a market crash
Last week, U.S. equities dropped 2% to 3%, depending on what index you monitor. That had the financial columns full of crash warnings about the coming plunge. Now to be fair, we have seen these headlines for a while now, so it's not like they just suddenly began to appear, but the fact that there actually was some selling added a little credence to the crash worries. Sure there were a few voices of reason, but for the most part, the coming declines were all but set in stone as far as most commentators were concerned. But is that really the case? Is it finally time for a crash?
A year ago, almost to the day, I penned a piece here on MarketWatch that outlined the technical structure that precedes a crash. You can read that original column here and the follow-up column as well. Back then, the crash chorus was rising as well. The most important points of the columns were:
- Market crashes have a technical structure that forms prior to the crash
- Significant market declines (not crashes) also have the same exact structure
- The technical structure is a necessary but not a sufficient condition
That last point is a salient one. What it says is that given historical data, large declines and crashes have a structure we can identify, but just because the structure is present does not necessarily mean those declines will be realized.
What is the structure? It is the break of multiple swing points on multiple timeframes across the major indexes and, in case you are wondering, we don’t have that yet . In fact, we haven't seen that since that piece was penned a year ago. We came close a couple of times — once late last year and again earlier this year, but so far, nothing yet. Remember, even when we do get the breaks and the trend transitions that they imply, it still doesn't follow that we will necessarily get a large decline or crash — it just raises the possibility and the resultant odds.
So what would it take to get a larger decline at this juncture? If you take the weakest index, the Russell 2000, it would need to decline another 3.7%, which is equal to another decline of equal size to last week's push lower. that would bring it to the brink.
The same is true of the S&P 500 as a decline of another 3.5% from Monday's closing levels would also bring it to breakdown levels.
Although we can always postulate what may or may not happen, as has been said in this column many times in the past, if you stay on the right side of the market in the short- to intermediate-term timeframes, you don't have to worry about the long term as you will be where you need to be when you get there. There are far too many variables that affect the long term. There are literally thousands of factors that could come into play between now and then, so quit worrying about it. Just focus on what is in front of you, reduce risk when appropriate (when larger declines have a higher probability of happening) and stay with the trend as long as the trend stays with you.
To even set up the possibility of a larger decline (bear market and/or crash possibility), the markets would need to suffer another loss equal in size to what has been suffered so far. For traders and investors who are more inclined to protect than to risk, the current bounce that began Monday should yield important clues as early as today about whether further declines are likely because many indexes and sectors are in the midst of bearish retest and regenerate sequences on their daily timeframes as seen here on the S&P 500.
If equities cannot trade over and hold above the 1943 area on the S&P 500 for a couple f bars, then either removing some risk or hedging off some of the risk would make sense as that would leave more options on the table should the intermediate term swing points lows are threatened in the coming days.
Friday, August 1, 2014
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