Friday, October 31, 2014

Low prices won’t hurt M’sian O&G companies

Malaysia’s oil and gas (O&G) sector could very well remain immune to falling oil prices as it continues to be bolstered by monies flowing from Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas).
CIMB Research said it expected Petronas’ spending to continue flowing to refiners as well as O&G service companies.
It also said the shale gas revolution, which was one of the contributing factors for the decline in the oil price, was positive for liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas and ethane shipping products.
This would translate into stronger order prospects for gas carriers and product and chemical tankers, CIMB Research said.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, declined to US$82.60 a barrel on Oct 16, the lowest in almost four years.
While lower oil price implied that there would be a cut in exploration and production (E&P) activities, CIMB Research said this would be especially so for unconventional production that could only be economically justified when the oil price was high.
“We deem ultra-deepwater, Artic drilling, Australian LNG, Canadian heavy oil sands and marginal field development as unconventional sources of production,” it said.
Additionally, there was not much incentive for oil companies to raise production levels in a well-supplied environment, CIMB Research added.
It said Petronas might review its capital expenditure programme if the oil price dropped to US$60 per barrel, which it understood was the breakeven point for newer initiatives such as marginal field development and enhanced oil recovery.
On companies with significant operations outside Malaysia, it noted that UMW Oil & Gas Corp Bhd had said that its contracts in various Asean countries were intact and that there was no provision for price revision in the contracts.
It said Bumi Armada Bhd had confirmed that its order book, which was mainly driven by long-term floating production storage and offloading contracts outside Malaysia, was locked and not affected by fluctuations in oil price.
Given SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd’s exposure to exploration and production through SapuraKencana Energy Inc, CIMB Research said it would suffer from a sustained lull in oil price.
CIMB Research advised investors to avoid exposure to deepwater activities, which have suffered the steepest cutbacks.
“We also advise investors to avoid the yards as they are leveraged to the capital investment cycle, which is dependent on oil prices and sentiment. On the flip side, we favour players that are exposed to development and production spending and shallow water activities,” it said.
Shallow water activities accounted for 70% of offshore production and remained profitable for oil companies even when oil prices fall, it added.

Friday, October 24, 2014

群众筹资 走进马股

网络开拓了向大众筹资的新机会,而群众筹资(Crowdfunding)就是其一。
群众筹资就是通过网上平台,从许多不同机构或人士,筹集小规模的资金,融资计划、业务、个人贷款或其他需要。
其中一种是股票型群众筹资(Equity-based Crowdfunding),如今在欧美已相当盛行,成为企业家寻求资金的平台,同时也是新投资模式。
看到股票型群众筹资的潜能,我国证券监督委员会决定,把这种新颖的网络筹资模式,带给本地投资者。
群众筹资创业挑战大
不要以为群众筹资(Crowdfunding)就是单纯“通过网络向大众伸手要钱”。
发起人需要以创新或具有吸引力的提案,寻求平台负责人批准,再拟定详细规划、确定集资金额、拍摄短片等,过程不如外界想象中简单。
从较为普遍的奖励型或捐款型,延伸出来的股票型群众筹资,复杂度是更上一层楼,风险也来得更高。
群众筹资的概念,早在1700年就出现在古典音乐界。当年莫扎特缺乏资金举行演奏会,最终是通过向群众筹资,才得以举行3场演奏会。
莫扎特当时的群众筹资活动,也应用了其中一种群众筹资元素———奖励。他以自己的协奏曲手写乐谱,回馈自己的忠实粉丝。
不过,在没有网络的世界,莫扎特耗了超过两年时间,才成功筹集到演奏会所需的资金。
最近数年,群众筹资开始在网络上盛行。经过新包装的旧概念,在全球金融风暴后越发兴起,从欧洲盛行至美国,效应再逐渐扩散至全球。
划分5类型
全球群众筹资划分成5个类型,分别是奖励型(就如莫扎特所采用)、捐款型、借贷型、股票型,以及专利金型。
相比起欧美,我国现有群众筹资平台不算发达,仅有捐款型的myStartr.com,以及奖励型的pitchIN.my。
因此,股票型群众筹资对我国市场和投资者,可说是全新的投资模式。
证监会去年5月,为大马非上市市场计划(MyULM)的网上交易平台,推出概念架构,以期未来能进一步促进非上市市场的筹资活动。
其中,就有提及群众筹资。不过,股票型群众筹资需要更严厉的监管,所以如今另设股票型群众筹资的平台。
涉及修法需时推行
考量到股票型群众筹资是以公司股票回馈投资者,所以证监会必须插手,扮演监督角色,确保证券市场信心之余,也避免出现非法活动。
证监会9月中亦举行国内首场关于股票型群众筹资的“动力与群众筹资座谈会”,旨在让民众了解更多这筹资模式。
监管架构的公众咨询活动,目前已告一段落,然而,当中涉及修改法令,所以需要提呈国会寻求通过。
同时,当局应该还需要提供投资者教育、确保监督工作,以及筹资平台做好准备等。
看来,要真正推介股票型群众筹资,仍需一段时间。
革新融资风险不少
群众筹资被视为鼓励或加速革新的途径,带动竞争力和增长。
例如在创业初期,具有创意点子的中小型企业,需要资金把点子化为实体。
可是,面对现实世界,他们要通过传统方式筹资可能遇阻,但也无法通过首次公开募股(IPO)集资。
股票型群众筹资,就可填补这“融资空隙”,让新创公司或小型企业筹资,甚至可在融资方面,协助他们更上一层楼,如上市交易所。
投资者在这里是看似群众的一份子,实际上扮演重要角色,小至提供刚起步的公司所需资金,大至带动国家产能和经济增长,甚至增加工作机会。
犹如一个循环,最终投资者在群众筹资创造的利益,还是回归群众。
凡事有两面。股票型群众筹资具有不少好处,同样亦存有不少风险。
参与这种筹资模式的投资者,都是融资革新的计划,不像一般营运成熟的上市公司所提出企划。
若投资者缺乏金融知识,极可能面对投资失败的风险。若筹资的公司无法派发股息,投资者就无法拿到回酬。
此外,股票型群众筹资平台不是次级市场,投资者无法售股,算是会面对股票流动风险。
其他风险,包括筹资平台倒闭。曾有借贷型群众筹资平台黛比,没有资料可证明投资者的资金流向,最终流失所有投资。
当然,一般投资者最担心就是被骗。这不只是股票型群众筹资会出现的风险,其他类型也可能出现诈欺。
初步架构形成
平台监管条例比股市少
依据证监会早前发出的监督架构咨询文件,当局认为股票型群众筹资平台或业者,提供证券买或卖,所以算是股票市场。
这些平台所提供的服务,与交易所相似,只是规模较小,例如让群众投资者到平台,一览所有发起人(issuers)的资料,担任投资者与发起人之间的沟通桥梁。
基于平台的用途,符合资本市场与服务法令所阐明,所以,平台业者需要遵守法令中的注册电子设施架构(REF)条文。
考量到营运规模、风险、投资额或筹资额,平台的监管条例,一般上会比股市少。
不过,证监会认为,一旦开始运作,股票型群众筹资平台较适合以“合格股票市场”的模式监管,也会要求业者提交相关申请。
在这筹资管道中,平台业者的角色非常重要,它在遵守证监会条例之余,还得向发起人的董事、大股东等进行精密审核程序(due diligence),决定是否适合登上平台。
本地公司可成为发起人
至于发起人,所有本地设立的私人公司都有资格,通过发行普通或优先股,参与股票型群众筹资。
每个发起人或公司,无论推出多少个计划,只可在一年内,筹集最高300万令吉,并通过同一个平台集资最多500万令吉。
已与证监会注册为投资机构,且拥有确定经商计划的小规模基金(Microfunds),都可参与股票型群众筹资,且没有筹资限制,却只能向机构或老练投资者(Sophisticated Investors)筹资。
发起人必须呈交标准文件给平台业者,包括本身的重要资讯、筹资额和献议等详情。
提供6天“冷却期”
散户、机构或天使投资者,都可在股票型群众筹资平台上,投资给相关公司或计划,前提是需要符合证监会所定下的限制。
投资者拥有一个“冷却期”,可在注资后的6天内决定撤资与否。
若有一个重要的事情足以影响计划或发起人,投资者也会有14天,决定是否撤出。
平台业者将把投资者所投入的资金,存入信托账户,只有发起人符合特定条件后,才可拿到资金。
精密审核耗时
证监会9月中举行的大会,吸引超过600人出席。其中一场座谈会的主讲人Cradle基金总执行长纳兹林哈山,点出筹资平台的精密审核过程,需要耗费许多时间。
因此,他认为应该先让天使投资者(angelinvestors)担任领导,把这种新式筹资模式的风险降至最低。
“我的观点是,(股票型群众筹资的)先取得成功案例,监管单位再出示成功案例给大众,届时再让群众进场。”
不过,同场担任主讲人的美国咨询公司Crowdfund CapitalAdvisors联合创办人詹森贝斯,就认为时间点很重要。
他表示,教育投资者的确是关键,但让投资者了解投资组合、做决定等,可能需要耗上5或10年。
他称,这类型群众筹资的挑战,是平台如何寻获具品质的投资者和需要集资的发起人。
另外,Crowdonomic创办人兼总执行长嶋田玲央渚就认为,领先投资者和散户应该同时进场。
他称,若散户不了解特定领域,可以观察具有经验和良好纪录的天使投资者,以他们为借鉴,然后再随后跟上。
“(证监会)需要在起步时就把散户带进去。”
pitchIN冀获经营平台
大马即将成为区域内首个推行股票型群众筹资的国家,当然吸引不少现有平台,要进场先拔头筹。
国内首屈一指的群众筹资平台pitchIN创办人之一森沙菲尔,对大马将推出股票型群众筹资感到高兴,反映出政府有心要把我国打造成股票型群众筹资在本区域甚至亚洲的核心。
他向《南洋商报》表示,股票型群众筹资可成为新创公司和其他非上市公司,向大众寻求资金的平台,特别是公司通常难以找到投资者会再注资。
“通过股票型群众筹资,小型企业可采用另一种方式筹资。他们可向有投资意愿、用户或大众集资。这很重要,因为这些人也可成为反映公司运营的证明。”
对投资者而言,他相信这种新式投资模式,可让他们在新创公司中寻找有趣的项目。
例如,面子书(Facebook)创立初期,若通过这种平台筹资,投资者如今应可享获不错的回酬。
此外,天使投资者也可扮演新创公司的导师,指引他们发展与经营方向。
身为国内唯一的奖励型群众筹资平台,pitchIN已向证监会登记,有意成立其中一个平台业者。森沙菲尔了解到,证监会目前过目所有申请,日后将公布平台业者的名单。
“当股票型群众筹资在马推出,我们估计至少会有两个业者,获准经营股票型群众筹资平台。我们希望pitchIN可以是其一。”
他不否认,这足以让国内群众筹资市场的竞争加剧。
“我们相信,竞争可确保新创公司和企业,以及投资者寻获最佳平台。
股票奖励型可互补
至于现有奖励型平台,森沙菲尔强调同时经营股票型平台和现有平台不会出问题,况且两者有互补的效果。
“奖励型平台是很好的平台,让拥有初步概念的企业家,试验群众的反应。过后,企业家可到股票型平台筹集更多资金,甚至可获投资者成为他们的导师。”
因此,pitchIN若获颁平台业者执照,将扩展团队,确保通过集资的公司符合标准、进行精密审核程序等。
他点出,经商和投资难免会面对风险,若确定经营股票型平台,pitchIN必定会以保护投资者免遭欺诈为优先。
“虽然我们希望有许多新创公司和企业能够到平台筹资,不过,pitchIN会采取所需行动,确保他们的品质和通过精密审核才上到平台。”
教育和意识最大阻力
相对于此,森沙菲尔认为“教育”和“意识”是推出股票型群众筹资的最大挑战,因为这不是只限于投资者身上,还有新创公司和企业。
他相信,股票型平台推出后,必须要有公司陆续通过平台集资的成功实例,才可带来投资者信心。
尽管pitchIN已推出两年,迄今仍未达到成熟阶段。
不过,市场趋势已经有明显增长,越来越多人发觉到pitchIN和了解群众筹资的意义。
近期可见不少新创公司和企业,通过创业资本基金集资,数量日益增加。
设立大马全球革新及创意中心,也可看出政府希望企业可驱动国家经济。
“这些事情反映出,现在就是推出股票型群众筹资的适当时机。”
pitchIN目前已推出高达79个计划,主要分为社会与慈善计划,以及创意与商业性质计划,前者无论是否达标都可获全数资金,后者则达标才能索取款项。
其中表现最好的实例,是吸引345个支持者、筹获8万7705令吉的“TAPAUfest”。
Crowdonomic觊觎大马
不以新加坡公司,而是以区域公司自居的群众金融科技公司Crowdonomic,去年1月面市。联合创办人嶋田玲央渚拥有逾10年投资相关经验,也是多场大型活动的主讲人。在近期的群众筹资大会,Crowdonomic担任证监会唯二的伙伴。
现身大会的嶋田玲央渚接受《南洋商报》专访时,表明在马设立股票型平台,是公司的目标。
他也欢迎股票型群众筹资推行后,大马市场将迎来更多竞争,特别是更多专业对手。
“在一个全球增长幅度高达双到三位数的领域,不需要担心竞争这回事。”
他也对自己多年来累计的经验抱有信心,相信Crowdonomic可以提供更好的服务。他强调,若群众筹资平台业者选择以经营网站的方式营运,失败率是高达80%。
“这意味,大家设立网站,在半年后,其中80%的网站消失了。”
简而言之,Crowdonomic欢迎竞争,对领域本身也是好事,以携手打造更好的群众筹资市场。
群众筹资在东南亚市场具有相当大增长潜能。以现有奖励型平台而言,东南亚市场筹资额于2010至2013年之间,增长多达4倍。
我国成亚洲先驱
嶋田玲央渚在专访期间提到,其实,亚洲多个国家如日本、印度,都考虑推出股票型群众筹资,但进展最快的还是大马。
“大马绝对是先锋……这都是因为证监会的开放度与革新度。”
对于新加坡,他称虽然群众筹资发达程度暂时赶不上,但政府早已表明,要成为股票型群众筹资的区域核心。
他认可大马市场所具有的动力,但仍有不足。
他点出,要确认一个市场是否真有前景,需要考量三个条件:
1.市场是否具有足够社交媒体渗透程度?
2.市场是否有施舍的精神,或接受新类型投资的开放度?
3.市场是否具有基本增长动力?
他坦承,大马符合第一和二条件,唯有第三个条件仍不足,目前国内群众筹资额不高。
无论如何,他相信只需要有一个强劲的平台打入市场,就可以完全驱动大马的群众筹资领域。
美占全球筹资逾六成

根据群众筹资领域报告,美国2012年群众筹资占全球筹资数量逾六成,欧洲约35%,其余不到5%是来自亚洲、南美、非洲等地区。
不过,股票型群众筹资不像其他类型普遍,在2010年至2012年期间,占全球筹资额的4至6%而已。
这种新筹资模式真正流行,还是最近一年的事情。
英国是较早期推行股票型群众筹资的国家,去年通过这模式筹获2800万英镑(约1亿4655万令吉)。
相对占群众筹资较大市场的美国,可说是去年9月,才真正变“合法”。
无认证投资者未放行
美国总统奥巴马2012年签署“新创企业启动法案”(Jumpstart Our Business Act,简称JOBS法令),经过投票,通过利用群众筹资大规模扶持企业发展。
从原有证券交易法延伸而得的JOBS法令,分为多个章节,其中第一章节是法源说明。
去年9月生效的第二章节,是允许私人企业在各种媒介公开融资需求,并向获认证投资者(accredited investors)筹集资金。
依据全球群众融资市场科技与数据库Crowdnetic,第二章节生效后,美国3361家转向股票型群众筹资的公司,有534家首年就达到筹资目标。
把股票型群众筹资完全开放,让无认证投资者(non-accredited investors)都可以进场的第三章节,目前仍未生效。
市场预估,一旦通过,是足以改变美国资本市场格局,等于可向1.8亿拥有小资本的成年投资者伸手。
不过,原定今年出炉的第三章节,迄今未获美国证券和交易委员会(SEC)放行。
其他国案例
加拿大 法令严厉
其中一个早期推行股票型群众筹资的国家,目前具有相当严厉的法令把关。
首个股票型群众筹资平台Optimize Capita lMarkets,于2009年推介。
不过,由于加拿大划分为多个省和区,所以股票型群众筹资并非全国一致通行。
安大略(Ontario)和萨斯喀彻温(Saskatchewan)证监会,去年才宣布开放股票型群众筹资,给获认证投资者参与。
英国 去年批1平台
去年5月,英国金融行为监管局(FCA)批准首家股票型群众筹资平台Seedrs。英国监管单位的步伐,其实比美国等国家都来得快。
目前,美国仍未放行的无认证投资者,今年4月开始,可在英国投资新创公司,唯一条件是他们不可注入超过每年净资产10%资金。
因此,市场认为美国会在这方面,应该转向英国取经。
纽西兰 合法化
就在大家踌躇不前的时候,纽西兰首开先河,为股票型群众筹资拟出相关条例,迅速合法化这种筹资模式。
纽西兰公司可通过平台,在一年内筹集最高200万纽西兰元(约508万令吉),且无需依照证券法令呈交一般文书。
瑞典 面市2年
首个群众筹资平台,2010年就面市,主要为文化计划集资。直至2012年杪,股票型群众筹资才成形,目前有一些平台已推出这类筹资模式。
意大利 去年推出
目前拥有多个奖励型群众筹资网站,最早可追溯到2011年。去年,意大利成为欧洲首个实行完整股票型群众筹资的国家,意味这类平台都可在意大利运营。
股票型例子1:Crowdcube
Crowdcube为全球首屈一指的群众筹资平台,让投资者通过股票、借贷和其他投资选择,参与新创公司、创业初期或业务扩展中的公司。
网站旗下已注册投资者高达9万1887人,迄今协助150家公司筹资成功,累计数额高达4002万4762英镑(约2亿1031万令吉)。
其中一个筹资成功例子,为“Escape TheCity”,属于科技公司,献售24%股权。计划主旨是帮助专业人士转行,寻找更有趣的新工作和创立自己的公司。
Escape The City在9天内筹获50万英镑(约262万令吉),接着再延长4天,筹获额外10万英镑(约52万令吉)。
股票型例子2:CircleUp
2011年创立的CircleUp,迄今协助多家公司,从获认证投资者身上,筹集超过3000万美元(约9816万令吉)。网站上成功筹资的例子,为销售家庭食用的水果零食公司Little Duck Organic,在3个月内向24位投资者筹获89万美元(约291万令吉),以助公司扩展。

Saturday, October 18, 2014

决定年底前全球市场走向的十大因素


2014年只剩下2个多月,随着近期全球市场动荡,风险厌恶情绪激增。德意志银行在一份报告中认为,以下十件事在今年剩下的时间里,将主导全球市场走向。

1. 美联储即将退出宽松货币政策。不过,美联储在2015年中之前加息的风险已经减弱。

2. 美联储退出可能会影响市场,但市场抛售应该可控。

3. 新兴市场资产易受美联储结束QE影响,资本外流将会加剧。

4. 不发生新兴市场危机,因基本面已经比1997年时强了很多。

5. 欧洲不发生通缩,但通胀风险的确在下行。

6. 欧洲央行在6个月内宣布QE,来应对通胀下滑,并实现资产负债表规模目标

7. 欧洲最终不会出现“日本式”的持续通缩和低增长。

8. 商品,主要是石油,价格一直不断下降,原因是供给上升和美元走弱,但一些特殊因素(如埃博拉、地缘政治风险等)对市场影响还不大。

9. 美国中期选举:美国股市可能会在此后一路上升到年末。

10. 巴西下一任总统将面临巨大挑战。

Friday, October 17, 2014

欧美亚太惊跌‧马股失守1770点


经济转弱、伊波拉扩散山雨欲来,美国股市道琼斯工商指数一度重挫逾460点,欧洲主要股市跟跌,亚太股市週四备受惊嚇而跌多起少,马股尚具韧力相对跌幅较低,失守1770点当前支持水平。

美国最新出炉的主要经济数据欠佳,包括生產价格指数(PPI)、零售、商业库存及纽约製造业指数等均远差市场预期,使全球经济前景忧虑加剧,加上担心伊波拉疫情扩散,全球股市顿时黯淡无光。

较后市场传出,联储局主席叶伦在內部会议上,表示对美经济有信心及大部份地区经济仍保持温和至適度增长,使標普500指数从下跌3%收窄至0.81%,道琼斯指数也跌幅也由2.6%收窄至1.06%,暂喘一口气。

亚股卖声震天,马股无法逆流而上。由於受到隔夜美股走低惊嚇,马股开市就急挫14.92点或0.83%,至1771.92点,午后交易跌幅虽收窄,全天还是跌得脸青鼻肿。全天收市时,马股跌19.07点至1767.77点,下跌股达1001只。

亚太股市以日本跌得最惨,重挫2.22%掛收,新加坡也跌破1%,放眼望去,仅有菲律宾和澳洲股市力保不失。

Thursday, October 16, 2014

MAS could cut 25% of capacity in 2015

Malaysian Airlines System Bhd is expected to cut as much as 25% of the capacity of its network in 2015, which would spell bad news for Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) as 2.2 million seats vanish from its airports, all of which are international passengers that provide the highest revenue per passenger.
Maybank Investment Bank Research analyst Moshin Aziz estimates MAS, which had indicated plans to focus on regional routes within the sphere of Asia and Australia, to terminate up to six international routes namely Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Istanbul, Dubai and Kunming.
He also reckons that MAS to further cut or reduce another routes – Sydney, Melbourne, Darwin, Brisbane, Kochi and Osaka – as part of its restructuring plan.
"We estimate as many as 18-19 aircraft will need to be taken out of the fleet due to these route cuts alone. For MAHB, this is bad news as 2.2 million seats will vanish from its airports, all of which are international passengers that provide the highest revenue per pax," he said in his report last Thursday.
However, he said this could be partially but not completely be off-set by higher frequencies by the other non-Malaysian carriers into KLIA.
Moshin said the routes cut will shift the market equilibrium and support higher load factor and yields. However, industry traffic growth will soften to a low single-digit for the next 12-18 months.
"This is positive for the airlines as profits will grow appreciably. However, this will be negative for MAHB as traffic growth will slow down relative to its historical growth rates," he said.
Moshin pointed out that the aviation industry's international sector capacity are still at historical highs with no noticeable capacity cut.
On the other hand, MAS has already started to cut capacity for the domestic sector after it reversed its growth plans with a 9.7% reduction in July this year compared from a year ago.
"We believe the domestic sector will continue to incur capacity reduction of a similar quantum for the next 6-9 months, based on management statements to the press," he said.
Moshin believes that MAS will undertake the massive capacity cuts after Chinese New Year which falls on Feb 9, 2015.
"The third and fourth quarter and the CNY are peak periods for MAS and it would have sold a significant amount of inventory already. Therefore, it is very punitive to make flight cancellations during this period due to costly rerouting of existing customers and not to mention the reputational damage," he said.
Despite the initial market optimism regarding MAS' restructuring, Moshin does not think that it will bring a significant positive impact on the aviation industry in the second half of 2014 (2H14) as the industry is still saddled with overcapacity on the long-haul sectors.
"We forecast the industry will endure further yield decline in 2H14, albeit at much less compared to 1H14. The exception to this is AirAsia, we forecast 4.4% year-on-year yield growth in 2H14 as it is purely focused on the short-haul sector.
"The reversal of fortunes for the airline industry will likely happen at the end of Q1'15 or Q2'15 at best," he added.
Moshin expect industry yields which declined by 4.2% in 2014, to recover in 2015.
"Going into 2015, yields should recover as MAS will cut significant capacity and filter the excess in the system. Furthermore, demand is expected to remain robust thanks to sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5%.
He reckoned that MAS will enjoy the highest year-on-year yield growth in the industry next year and assuming the said routes are terminated, this will reduce MAS' average stage length by 13%-15% in 2015.
Moshin said this alone will support yield growth of about 13% as shorter flights have a higher yield.
In addition, he said, the capacity cuts on existing routes will also help to elevate the yields even more. "Overall, we forecast MAS yields will grow by 15-20% in 2015," he said.
Mohshin also forecast's AirAsia's yield to grow between 5%-7% in 2015, driven by higher average fare and growth in ancillary income.
"MAS has cut capacity in the domestic sector since July 2014, and this will swiftly support higher yields for AirAsia whereby domestic sector makes up about 60% of budget airliners business.
For the long haul budget carrier, AirAsia X, he has forecast yield to expand by 10%-13% in 2015, driven by stabilization and maturing routes.
"AirAsia X will be a beneficiary of MAS' restructuring, especially for its Australian and Chinese routes," he noted.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Bumiputera developers for Kwasa residential project

Kwasa Land has pre-qualified 23 Bumiputera developers, including Ahmad Zaki Resources Bhd and UDA Holdings Bhd, for the residential project in its proposed new township in Kwasa Damansara.
Kwasa Land said on Wednesday that through a request-for-proposal, it had launched the first Bumiputera opportunity known as “R3-2” in which 8.79 acres of land were set aside for the residential development.
The remaining 21 prequalified Bumiputera developers invited for this inaugural Bumiputera RFP include Apex Communication Sdn Bhd, Ark Resources Bhd, Dwitasik Sdn Bhd, Faber Union Sdn Bhd, Fairview Development Sdn Bhd, Impiana Land Development Sdn Bhd, ISY Sdn Bhd, Johawaki Development Sdn Bhd, Lebar Daun Development Sdn Bhd, Getrahome Sdn Bhd, Prima Nova Sdn Bhd, Purplestar Land (M) Sdn Bhd, Kinta Berkat Sdn Bhd, Selia Selenggara Sdn Bhd, Sensatimur Sdn Bhd, Seri Meraga Properties Sdn Bhd, Sharikat Permodalan Kebangsaan Bhd, Swasta Setia Holdings Sdn Bhd, Triplc Bhd, Tujuan Gemilang Sdn Bhd and Zikay Group Sdn Bhd.
In the R3-2 RFP, tender documents reveal Kwasa Land’s request for a residential area with a development that encourages a mix within a neighbourhood with each residential cluster consisting of a variety of housing types and sizes. 
The development design pre requisite for the 8.79 acres should possess a special character and theme that fosters a sense of pride, place and belonging in a sustainable contemporary setting.
“The land is located at the northern part of Kwasa Damansara next to the MRT station underscoring its prime valuation as it is easily accessible via the proposed good network of roads in the development.
“The move is seen to further consolidate Kwasa Land’s action to support the Bumiputera Economic Empowerment Agenda.
“Thirty-five per cent of land in the proposed Kwasa Damansara township have been slated for Bumiputera developers,” it said.
Of the 152 who participated in the Kwasa Land prequalification exercise last year, 70 submissions were received by Kwasa Land for the Bumiputera category. 

57% Chance of First Rate Hike in Sep 2015


More selling likely with U.S. stock indexes below key levels

Wall Street has been hit with a wave of selling in recent days, with the S&P 500 registering its worst three-day slide since 2011, but despite a burst of buying on Tuesday, investors expect that more selling is in order before the market correction ends.

On Monday, the benchmark S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average, an important measure of the longer-term trend in the equity market, for the first time since Nov. 16, 2012.

Equities started to rebound on Tuesday, but buying dried up in late trading, leaving stocks with a gain of just 0.16 percent. Strategists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said the weakness is likely "corrective and temporary," but they're not looking for the S&P to find a floor until around 1,814, which would represent a fall of nearly 10 percent from its closing peak.

The Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq Composite have also fallen below support levels, while the Russell 2000 has entered correction territory, defined as a decline of more than 10 percent from the most recent high.

"This is the most back-and-forth activity we've seen since 2011," said Frank Cappelleri, technical market analyst and trader at Instinet LLC. "We shouldn't discount the chance of volatility sticking around for a while."

Technicians look at different kinds of levels - moving averages, retracement levels - as a way of gauging triggers for buying or selling. In the case of sharp selloffs, these levels are breached quickly - changing what have been support areas into resistance areas.

Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading in Greenwich, Connecticut, in a comment Tuesday described Wall Street now as "truly a technical environment," and said that some managers will "try to outperform by limiting, removing or eliminating exposure to a declining tape." He cited support levels on the S&P at 1,865 to 1,875, and after that at around 1,848 - the last marking the level that would put the S&P down on the year.

The swiftness of October's selloff has brought the S&P 500 through its 200-day moving average for the first time in two years. Strategists at BofA-Merrill put it simply: "U.S. equities are falling like dominoes."

They note that the Nasdaq 100 <.NDX>, which is composed of the largest stocks in the Nasdaq Composite, is probably the next to watch for, noting that it has yet to break through a zone between 3,774 and 3,762. It closed at 3,810 on Tuesday.

Some strategists are also watching the VIX futures, at a time when the spot VIX is trading higher than the nearest three months of futures contracts. That inversion is not the norm, and it suggests that more people are worried about near-term volatility than long-run ups and downs. The spot VIX closed on Tuesday at 22.79.

Following are technical indicators that show the current condition of the major U.S. indexes. "Relative strength" is a technical indicator that identifies possible shifts in momentum of an index:

DOW INDUSTRIALS

Decline from closing high through Tuesday: 5.6 percent

Below 200-day moving average? Yes - 265 points below

Relative Strength Index: 44, suggesting the market is neutral

Percentage of stocks below 200-day moving average: 43.3 percent, according to Interactive Brokers LLC

Support Level: 16,015, according to Cappelleri

S&P 500

Decline from closing high through Tuesday: 6.7 percent

Below 200-day moving average? Yes - 28 points below

Relative Strength Index: 40, near neutral

Percentage of stocks below 200-day moving average: 58.6 percent, according to Interactive Brokers LLC

Support Level: About 1,850

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Decline from 2014 high through Tuesday: 8.1 percent

Below 200-day moving average? Yes - 73 points below

Relative Strength Index: 40, near neutral

Percentage of stocks below 200-day moving average: 72.1 percent, according to Interactive Brokers LLC

Support Level: Near 4,200

RUSSELL 2000:

Decline from closing high through Tuesday: 12.2 percent

Below 200-day moving average? Yes - 87 points below

Relative Strength Index: 35, near oversold levels, meaning there could be a rebound

Percentage of stocks below 200-day moving average: 72.7 percent, according to Interactive Brokers LLC

Support Level: About 1,037- Reuters

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Is this the Market Correction we had to have?

ANOTHER day, another plunge. The main Wall Street benchmark S&P 500 fell 1.65% to 1,874 points last night, its worst three day drop since 2011. The US dollar continued to strengthen and oil slipped to US$ 88.88 for a barrel of Brent crude.
The latest sell off comes just three weeks after the last peak. On Friday September 19, 2014, Alibaba Holdings raised over US$ 25 billion in an initial public offering in New York. The Chinese e-commerce giants saw its shares soar 38% on its listing day.
Did the spectacularly successful IPO also mark a market top?
The day before Alibaba made history on the New York Stock Exchange the S&P 500  Index touched 2,011.36 points, a new record. Since then the S&P 500 has been on a slippery slope. It is now down more than  7% from its three weeks ago peak. And Alibaba? Well, its shares are down over 9% from its own opening day peak.
But the S&P 500 which was up 30% last year, is still up 3.06% so far this year despite the post Alibaba pullback. The less well followed Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 large cap American stocks is up 1.6% this year and Tech heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is up 1.8% this year though it is down 10% from its recent peak last month. The Russell 2000 the US small cap index which plunged 3.3% last week is down nearly 11% from its own peak earlier this year.
In short, US stocks have been on a downward slope.
Asia has been taking its cue from what’s going on in Wall Street and stocks in the region have slipped almost as much or in some markets a lot more than US equities. Little wonder then that after last Friday's selling in the US, investors in the region saw their own markets sold off as well when trading opened this morning.
The Straits Times Index was down 21.72 points on Monday or 0.67% and began the day with more losses.
Elsewhere the selloff was even heavier.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.4%,Taiwan’s Weighted Index was down 2.84%, the Philippines PSE Index was down 2.78%, Jakarta Composite 1.01% and in Kuala Lumpur the  FTSE Bursa Malaysia’s KLCI 0.065.
The only Index in the region apart from Mumbai’s  Sensex was Hong Kong’s  Hang Seng Index which started down but eked out gains to close up on Monday as investors saw a silver lining in the tail end of student protests as well as the upcoming Through Train Stock Connect next week which allows mainland Chinese to buy Hong Kong stocks.
How long will the selloff in the US last? And how long will Asian stocks continue to be dragged down because global sentiment for equities remains poor?
This is not the beginning of a new bear market says John Higgins, Chief Markets Economist for Capital Economicsin London.
“Bear markets typically only occur in, and around, recessions, rather than in the middle of entrenched recoveries,” he notes.
 If you Google it, you might find that a popular definition of a bear market is a peak-to-trough decline in stock prices of at least 20% over a period of at least two months. The S&P 500 has experienced nine such bear markets since 1950. There have also been ten official recessions over the last 64 years.
 While most bear markets are a canary in the coal mine of recessions not all stock slumps are harbinger of gloomier economic climes.
 For example, the Black October sell off of 1987 which saw stock prices collapsing 34% was followed by a rebound and in its wake no recession followed.
As prospects for the next 12 months go, with its economy set to grow at least 3% over the next year, the US is probably the best house in a fairly rough neighbourhood.
 Unemployment rate in the US is down to 5.9%, consumer confidence is up as house prices have risen from their lows of 2009 and it is primarily due to the strength of the economy that the Fed is ending tapering this month and looking at hiking interest rates next year.
The real fault lines in the global economy lie in Europe, Japan and China.
No matter what the IMF latest economic report tells you, Europe is now clearly flirting with a recession again. In January, the betting was the Eurozone will eke out  up to 1% growth this year.
Those forecasts were later cut to 0.5%, Now there are some forecasts Eurozone will be lucky to eke out any growth for current calendar year and might see growth not much above zero next year. Following a disastrous consumption tax hike Japan's recovery seems to have derailed as well and real estate woes are weighing on China's growth.
The good news is that some of the bad news around the US is turning out to be not that bad. The Fed which was expected to raise interest rates between April and June next year might now delay the hikes if global growth continues to slow. That will be a positive for US equities.
While the strong U.S. Dollar is likely to weigh on US corporate earnings particularly in the current quarter, stronger domestic growth will likely mitigate most if not all of it. Cheaper commodities, particularly cheaper oil, is helping bring down costs for US companies which at this stage of growth are normally more concerned about rising costs.
At just 15 times next year's expected earnings US stocks are clearly not expensive. If the dollar stabilizes at current levels it will remove another uncertainty. With average earnings growth of over 5% next year plus 3% dividends, US stocks could have a decent upside.
And when Wall Street starts singing, Asian markets are likely to take a cue as well. There may be a sharp downward leg in coming weeks as correction takes its course ,but valuations look reasonable.

Bank Negara issuing concept paper on payment card reform

Bank Negara Malaysia is issuing a concept paper on the payment card reform framework for public consultation. 
BNM said on Tuesday the framework’s objective is to ensure an “efficient, transparent and competitive payment card industry in Malaysia.
This is in line with BNM’s statutory mandate under the Financial Services Act 2013 and the Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 and the recommendations outlined in the Bank’s Financial Sector Blueprint.
“The framework seeks to ensure that any increase in the acceptance cost of payment cards is reasonable by establishing an objective and transparent mechanism for the reimbursement of fees among players in the payment card industry. 
“Complementing the mechanism, the framework, among others, also introduce measures to promote greater usage and acceptance of cost-effective payment cards through the use of correct price signals and empowerment of merchants,” it said.
BNM urged the public, industry players and other relevant stakeholders are invited to provide written comments on this concept paper and email to payment@bnm.gov.my latest by Nov 10,  2014.

Monday, October 13, 2014

洁蒂:大马需宽鬆货幣政策

国家银行总裁丹斯里洁蒂说,基於当前波动的全球环境,大马仍然需要具有“支撑性”的货幣政策,以继续支援经济的扩张与成长。

洁蒂接受《亚洲华尔街日报》访问时说:“我们相信在这时间点上,仍需要宽鬆的货幣政策;全球环境仍然波动,我们並未脱险。”

儘管大马最大贸易伙伴中国经济放缓,欧洲经济也走疲,洁蒂预测大马2015年仍可取得5至6%之经济成长。

“我们正在稳定成长轨道上,財政预算和税务改革等措施虽使前景看来疲弱,预料这將是短暂的,毋需担忧。”

今年7月调高50个基点至3.25%后,大马在9月议息会议上保持隔夜政策利率(OPR)不变;她未特別暗示即將升息,下次议息会议是在11月6日。

预测2016年全年通膨回跌至3%

《彭博社》引述洁蒂说,基於外围波动,大马经济成长风险增加和拉高通膨,惟这属暂时性,预测2016年全年通膨回跌至平均的3%。

她预期美国联储局利率正常化后將增加金融市场波动性,亚洲新兴市场作好准备应对更波动的环境。

她说,最近大马的財政改革不会对通形成显著衝击,主要是人民没有薪资压力、进口通膨微不足道。

洁蒂在出席国际货幣基金组织(IMF)会议接受访问时,也提到中国最近放缓不足掛虑,这是中国有意识的调控週热的房產与建筑业。洁蒂认为这个全球第二大经济体,仍然有资源取得持续性的7%或更高成长,前景亮丽。

“中国採措施调控过热和实施结构改革,大批资金压力过剩產能將获得释放,中国的財政盈余仍有政策空间支撑经济成长。”

她说:“我相信中国將7%至7.5%的稳定成长,这是非常正面的发展。”

內需与出口为两大经济成长动力

大马首相兼財长上週五(10日)提呈2015年財政预算案,预测大马2015年取得5.5至6%成长,相比较早预测的5至6%,內需与出口为两大经济成长动力。

欧洲经济前景不明,加上全球油价急挫,全球股市卖压声中,马股上週五猛跌20.85点或1.1%至1808.88点。

IMF第六次下调全球经济成长预测,今年全球经济成长率从7月预估的3.4%调降至3.3%,明年成长率则从4%调降至3.8%。

洁蒂说,大马比该国际组织更早实施资金控制,事先防微杜渐可在不妨碍经济走势下,箝制某些领域之活动和擬定针对性的政策。

她较倾向应用上述“宏观谨慎”工具,不单一使用利率政策,以克服金融市场的问题,並不会使实际经济面临广泛效应。这些工具包括实施贷款顶限、最低首期付款和其他措施。

“在宏观谨慎字眼未存在前,我们在上世纪90年代就实施这类措施。”

Sunday, October 12, 2014

隆雪添5大工程 封路塞车何时了

国阵政府在2015年財政预算案,宣布展开7项大型基建工程,其中5项就集中在巴生谷,看出政府重点发展巴生谷的决心,不过,2条全新公共交通及3条新高速大道的路线工程,极可能引发3大隱忧问题,即施工安全、徵用土地以及交通阻塞!

自联邦政府推动「大吉隆坡」计划以来,近几年来巴生谷一带施工不断,如果上述5项大型基建工程日后加入施工阵容,预料巴生谷人民在未来几年,所必须承受工程施工「阵痛期」將一再延长。

这5项大型基建工程,包括全长56公里的巴生谷捷运2计划、轻快铁3计划、全长59公里的新街场淡江大道(SUKE)、全长47公里的白沙罗莎阿南大道(DASH)以及全长36公里的吉隆坡外环大道。

灵市19区居民协会主席陈友良指出,上述5大基建工程因为处在不同的路线,因此並行发展问题並不大,不过,高速大道兴建工程却明显要比公共交通系统工程,带来更多问题。

他表示,兴建高速大道需要涉及更多的土地,如果大道路线又经过人口密集区,届时受徵地影响的范围相对就会增加,不仅徵地,大道施工封路所造成的交通阻塞问题,也比兴建公交系统来得严重。

「我不反对兴建高速大道,但新大道应该兴建在郊外或人口鲜少的地区,而非坚持兴建在人口密集区。据我所知,新建的大道当中,有一条会路经白沙罗柏兰岭的人口密集区,虽然目前详细大道路线尚未出炉,但一旦成行,势必会引起当地居民的反弹。」

「再说,公交系统如捷运工程,都是把一块块的装备运载到施工地点后再组装,但是大道工程却是直接在原地兴建,所以后者需要封路的路段相对更多。」

政府应有周详计划

他指出,不少捷运路线都是兴建在路肩或地底下,但如果政府非得在城市地区兴建高速大道,兴建高架天桥就成为唯一的选择。相比之下,政府倒不如兴建更多公共交通更好。

陈友良是于今日接受《东方日报》记者访问时,如是表示。

此外,士拉央甲洞达雅花园居协主席陈钟灵直言,巴生谷一带的基建工程多,不代表就会存在更多危险性,而建筑工地的意外事故,都是偶发性发生或人为疏忽所造成。

他认为,巴生谷一带的交通实在是太拥挤,政府的確需要多花心思在兴建更多的公共设施和大道上;而兴建工程所引发的徵用土地以及交通阻塞问题,担心是免不了,但仍需要双方去妥协。

另一方面,大城堡居协主席陈大东表示,在现有的道路上方兴建工程,是欠佳的做法,在国外都是以兴建地底工程为主。

他指出,政府不管落实什么计划都好,都应该要有全盘的计划;如果计划不够周详,就会从一个问题衍生出另外的问题。

「例如,当新街场延伸大道落实以后,衔接至大城堡的出口就开始变得非常塞车。大道的兴建,理应是要让人民享有四通八达的便利,如果大道兴建后却引发路口塞车,显示大道规划得不够全面。」

此外,他认为,巴生谷的5大基建工程一起进行或先后进行,取决于政府的財力资源是否足够。至于徵地与否他觉得应该提早进行,而非等到后期大道要兴建时,才来仓促提出。

並行施工胥视財力 妥善规划减「阵痛」

巴生谷5大新基建工程是否能够並行施工,专家认为,最大程度仍需取决于政府的財力资源,以及对人民和交通构成的影响层面有多大。

首相拿督斯里纳吉昨日宣布,巴生谷捷运2计划將从士拉央发展至布城,全长56公里,耗资230亿令吉;至于轻快铁3计划则將连接万达镇至莎阿南和巴生,耗资90亿令吉。

隆雪华堂总执行长陈亚才认为,大马的公共交通设施,不管是远程或近程,都做得不够完善。

一般上,一个国家的交通系统做得好,全赖于公共交通系统的完善。

他说,政府在落实上述工程之前,財力资源及影响层面多广是重要的考量因素,一旦新旧施工工程加在一起带来更多负面影响,政府就要擬定先后顺序来分开施工。

「如今,巴生谷每年的汽车增长率相当惊人,所以政府在兴建以前,妥善的规划非常重要,避免大道兴建了还不够用,出现了所谓『计划赶不上变化』的情况。」

此外,城市规划专家温顺强表示,如果上述5大基建工程的施工路线並没有相互衝突的地方,基本上政府只要拥有足够的財力资源,就可以並行展开施工;但如果政府一项项工程进行,届时將耗费漫长的施工期。

他说,首相重点集中发展巴生谷,源自于首相在2年前宣布落实的「大吉隆坡」计划;而这些短期带来痛苦的工程,长远来说是要把吉隆坡发展成为国际城市,並在2020年把吉隆坡打造成为全球首20位宜居城市的目標。

「每项大型基建发展在落实兴建前,都需先规划路线、收集民意、经过听证会后,再重新调整,因此预料最快也可能需要耗时1至2年时间,才能正式动工兴建。」