美收水影响產业收购‧產託股有下跌风险

大马產业投资信托股去年成为联储局收水行动下的输家，分析员预料今年下半年利率调升將影响產业收购步伐，加上大马公债收益率上升带来衝击，產托股將有9至11%的下跌风险。

马银行研究指出，联储局启动收水的行动比预期早，市场在接下来將继续密切关注美国的经济数据以衡量联储局缩减量宽的力道和规模。而对利息波动敏感的大马產托股將可能在2014年下半年由於收益率波动而落后大市。

不过，该行相信联储局收水引发的卖压已大部份反映在產托股的股价上，因此保持中和评级。

2013年上半年最佳时期

2013年上半年是大马產托股歷来表现最佳的时刻，大马首个合订型產托股（StapledREIT）KLCC產托（KLCC,5235SS,主板產业投资信托组）在5月上市，这只市值和资產规模最大的產托股，进一步吸引了寻求高股息和迴避风险的投资者在2013年第13届大选前採取抗跌策略而进场累积產托股。

不过，自联储局於2013年5月暗示將展开退市行动后，產托股开始面对严重卖压。產托股和大马公债收益率的差距目前只有244个基点，低於2006年的354基点，以及2012年至2013年5月顶峰的314点，这显示了產托股將有进一步的下跌风险，不再被视作是抗跌股。

马银行研究表示，利率上涨以及產业价值居高不下，將打击產业收购活动，同时令集资更为困难，而收购活动是过去数年在低利率环境下带动盈利成长的主要推手。投资者对周息率股的需求也已疲软，成功多多（BJTOTO,1562,主板贸服组）最近就宣佈取消其商业信托在新加坡上市的计划。

產托公司面对营运成本高涨问题

此外，產托股也面对营运成本高涨的问题。电费和门牌税在2014年上涨对大马產托股不利，虽然可把成本转嫁给租户，但实际执行时仍胥视市场情况，因为留住租户仍是首要考虑。目前办公楼市场供应过剩，令產托公司难以转嫁额外成本给租户。

隨著电费从2014年1月起上涨，產托股2014／15年盈预测下调0.2%／0.9%，至於吉隆坡门牌税调高，將令產业落在吉隆坡的產托股受创，估计每股增加成本0.1至1.1仙。

“產托股將继续出现重新定价的活动，尤其是在下半年，预料大马產托股周息率对10年期大马公债收益率的息差將逼近歷史平均的314基点（增加70基点），这意味著產托股的价格將有9至11%下跌风险。”

至於重新进场的时机则取决於大马公债收益率开始稳定时，可能是在下半年，因到时美国联储局货幣政策的不明朗因素將告消退。

马银行研究首选產托股为具稳健基本面、大股东极可能注入资產以及估值良好，足以缓冲任何公债收益率突然飆涨之衝击的產托股。

將高贝他股的目標价削减3至19%。建议买进嘉德商托（CMMT,5180,主板產业投资信托组）和柏威年產业信托（PAVREIT,5212,主板產业投资信托组），嘉德商托在最近被拋售后，提供6.6%的吸引人周息率，至於柏威年產托则负债偏低，因此有能力在无须额外发股集资下展开收购行动。

“3天理論”評斷‧胡立陽：今年股市將淪陷

“今天的投资处境，就像放掉一缸洗澡水，刚放时风平浪静，其实里面已有问题，看到漩涡时，大家恐慌，但已经来不及了……”

有“台湾股神”之称，即將於1月18日来马开讲的胡立阳接受《星洲財经》的越洋电访时，继续像说故事似的分享其投资心得，直言若有人说经济復甦让股市前景可期，请记住“经济利好已提前反映”，投资者不能再从基本面思考，而是应以资金面出发。

“无论是房市、股市或债市，表面上皆风平浪静，但却暗藏风险。”

他以“3天理论”，即一年头3天的股市走势，去剖析股市今年整年可能沦陷的窘境。

“马股和台湾股市一样，新年甫开市即连跌3天，年初跌多涨少，这情况一般显示整年走势难有作为，股市可能下跌一整年。”解释了该理论后，他不忘补上一句：“这理论的准確率高达7成！”

他也提到，美股一步如新年，第一天就跌100多点，隔天也只起28点，若美股不好，跌多过涨，绝对值得作为股市的参考指標。

马股1800点以上算高档

马股去年大唱丰收，全年刷26次新高记录和涨逾10.54%，跑贏东南亚股市，“价高市危”的说法此起彼落，率直的胡立阳也以一句“马股1800点以上就算是高档了”去总结马股的昂贵。

“马股去年封关达1882点，高档封关，只因为资金面，一旦跨过了，將正式进入牛式下半场，难免步步为营。”

他娓娓道来，吉隆坡股市在2008年金融风暴，曾跌到800至900点，涨一倍，就是高档区，所以若介於1600至1800点，都属於高位。

他认为，全球股市其实现都处於高档区，无论是美国股市，还是吉隆坡股市，经济未全面復甦，利好却已提前反映。

儘管如此，他认为，投资者在首季仍可能盼到创新高的牛劲，尤其美股，但必须紧记，这些股市都已走在钢索上。

他强调，未来股市胥视资金面的脸色，不再由基本面主导，而资金面的影响是全面的，这也是为何凡过度膨胀的资產都料无可避免地调整。

“QE减码和房產、股票其实没有直接关係，惟关键是升息，升息的预期心態，將导致房市和股市下挫。”

至於新兴市场的股市前景，他鑑於各国情况不同，相信受影响程度也因国而异。

“目前市场上到处流窜的资金达20兆美元，其中，QE製造的是4兆美元，若｀鮭鱼返乡’，会造成各不同区域、不同资產价格受挫。”

买在低档 小心高档

“今年特色-崎嶇，上半年容易作，下半年如走钢索，不要隨便追高，等拉回才进场；股市不断创新高，投资秘诀永远是，买在低档，小心高档……。”胡立阳是否一箭命中你投资的脑袋？

对胡立阳而言，2015年，升息当道，房市、股市、债市、金市都是恶魔，投资者宜在2014年趁机將危险资產拋掉，因2014年的主题是“保本”，紧抱现金，等待机会。

胡立阳更把2014年比喻为金钱游戏將结束的时候，10年大餐，现已是最后的“甜汤”，若还期待牛排，可能会很失望，而且可能要加倍奉还，所以他一开年即不忘奉劝投资者，在2014年的投资路上，应抱著“小心谨慎”的心態。

他坦言，目前投资工具中，长期投资的选择不多，股票、债券、房市、黄金，都在高档，已脱离长期投资的价值，投资反而宜以短线著眼。

多低才叫低档？胡立阳解释，投资者不妨以每隔5%就一关来判断。

以马股为例，若指数自1800点涨5%或高达100点，至1900点，就要小心，如自1882点高点跌5%至1800点寻求支撑，又是一关卡，撑不住，可能跌到1700点或1600点，宜走一步看一步。

看好中小股

牛市下半场，指数股恐受压抑，胡立阳认为，最好买进不佔指数的中小型股，尤其小型股。

“然而，哪里有鱼，就哪边钓……”他强调，那是因为当QE退场时，资金缩减將导致成交量减少，並集中在强势股。

他说，投资者要留意的是牛市下半场的强势股，因强者愈强、弱者愈弱，不要一味想著捡便宜，即便股票拉回，也要买强势股！

实战经验多不胜数的他也不忘分享一套2014年的“防身术”，即“10週平均线”。

“任何资產，都可以10週平均线去分析，若往下滑，就別碰；翻上才考虑。”

他也主张“3天理论”，即若个股3至5天內无表现，应及时卖掉，等机会，因当步入牛市下半场，一般震动幅度很高，有些股短期下挫后涨不回。

“一个股如买了3至5天，似步入｀套房’，应赶快退房，免得愈住愈贵。”

黄金“不靠谱”

金价跌深后反弹，在胡立阳眼中，不见得是进场时机，继续以“好10年、坏20年”去形容黄金，可能跌破1千美元，甚至濒临960美元低点。

“金价近年激烈调整，很多人以为1千200美元是成本价，其实，1千200美元可能只是假支撑。”

他认为，黄金跌势已形成，黄金也是不讲道理的投资工具，一般会先跌到正常价位，之后可能继续下探。

“黄金最高点曾为每安士1千920美元，若以该水平除以2，正常价位应为960美元。”他不排除，黄金之后可能出现重力加速度的挫跌，恐落至960美元以下才止跌。

首选美元人民幣

面对2014年匯率的大震盪，胡立阳首选是美元和人民幣，直言投资者不妨同时投资这两种货幣分散风险。

儘管看好美元，他不忘提醒，投资者若想涉足美元资產，同样得小心，因为美元资產价格可能也已显著膨胀，別因赚了本幣收益，却因资產价受挫而蒙损，最终因小失大。

房市震盪在升息那刻

“全球房市已涨太多，房价可能开始鬆动，真正下跌或是在2015年。”

这正如胡立阳分享过的“QE退场四部曲”，房市的震盪往往在最后出现，就是正式升息的那一刻。

工程回歸VS緊縮政策‧投資建築股須慎選

受全國大選等因素干擾，建築業在2013年表現平平，分析員看好今年將是大型工程回歸的一年，建築業有望重返昔日繁華，但需慎防政府財政緊縮政策恐使部份工程面對調整風險，因此宜採取“選股”投資策略。

政府財政緊縮恐降工程量

馬銀行研究表示，2013年建築業焦點放在大型工程的執行上，其中巴生河流域捷運一號線工程首次全年執行更是測試政府執行能力的重大指標，好在結果沒有讓人失望，截至2013年10月15日止，地下和高架工程已完成42%和20%，令整體工程完成率達到29%。

“去年首9個月完工的工程數量按年增長13%，主要獲公共工程和住宅建築分別走揚20%拉動。”

但是，礙於政府持續貫徹財政緊縮措施，令其他工程的執行時程變得不明朗，而數項大型工程建設不斷延誤更是令市場大失所望。儘管如此，去年首9個月共頒出總值670億令吉的合約，按年下跌5%，主要為私人領域投資

和非住宅產業工程。

展望2014年，馬銀行研究認為，雖然市場憂慮政府財政緊縮政策恐壓縮工程數量，但仍預期大型工程回歸將是今年建築業的發展主軸。

其中，市場引頸長盼的巴生河流域捷運二號線和工程交付合作夥伴（PDP）有望在短期內進行宣佈，西海岸大道也將在短期內進行公開招標，工程可能在2014年杪展開，而關丹港口擴建工作也將在年終進行。

該證券行說，基於政府放眼在經濟轉型計劃（ETP）下建設完善的綜合公共交通網絡，截至2020年總值1千600億令吉的鐵路相關工程將繼續為建築業稍來正面消息。

此外，政府在2014年財政預算案維持基礎建設和鄉鎮發展的發展開銷，加上關鍵石油與天然氣工程與政府土地發展計劃將繼續帶來正面工程合約頒佈消息，並支撐建築公司盈利增長和領域成長週期。

馬銀行研究認為，隨著建築公司放眼釋放大道、港口、發電廠和食水處理廠等基礎設施資產價值，相信雪州水務整合大戲等相關企業活動將不斷在今年上演。

當中，金務大（GAMUDA，5398，主板建筑組）和怡保工程（IJM，3336，主板建筑組）是積極透過業務分拆上市或商業信託方式兌現特許經營權資產價值的兩大上市公司，其中前者現忙於收購沙亞南大道控股（KESAS）其餘40%股權，可能只是系列基礎建設資產併購的前奏。

維持“加碼”評級

整體來說，馬銀行研究指出，雖然建築指數去年大漲17%，跑贏富時綜合指數的10%漲幅，但建築股平均本益比僅為12倍，遠低於綜指的16倍，估值仍相對誘人，維持領域“加碼”評級，其中怡保種植憑藉強勁建築訂單補充和產業未入賬銷售，成為投資首選。

“砂州日光（CMSB，2852，主板工業產品組）則是砂拉越再生能源走廊（SCORE）加速發展的主題投資目標。”

部份工程面對調整風險

黃氏唯高達研究指出，受全國大選和捷運工程緩步進行影響，建築業在2013年相對平靜，而今年在政府貫徹財政緊縮政策下，部份工程將面對重新調整的風險，因此將採取“選股”投資策略。

“政府承諾將確保整個捷運計劃順利落實，投資者宜鎖定金務大和MMC機構（MMCCORP，2194，主板貿服組）等捷運相關代表，其中捷運二號線PDP將在今年首季出台，但費用可能降至6%，而怡保工程和雙威（SUNWAY，5211，主板產業組）為出線最高者。”

隆新高鐵料難在2年內頒佈

但該證券行並不預見吉隆坡－新加坡高速鐵路工程將在未來2年內頒佈，主要是政府已承諾將率先頒出南部雙軌鐵路工程。

“同時，我們預期政府將在明年3月對邊佳蘭煉油及石油化學綜合發展計劃（Rapid）做出最終定奪，因此持有國家石油公司（Petronas）執照的睦興旺工程（MUHIBAH，5703，主板建筑組）將可爭取非Rapid的再氣化和製造等工程。”

整體來說，黃氏唯高達研究認為，金務大是去年建築明星股，全年股價上漲34%，大幅拋離其他同儕，主要歸功於捷運故事和強勁盈利表現，但雖然捷運二號線的PDP人選公佈消息正面，卻將遭雪河公司（SPLASH）獻購遭拒令特別股息美夢幻滅，以及隧道工程執行風險高等因素相抵，因此今年恐是怡保工程突圍而出的一年。

“西海岸大道工程頒佈將令怡保工程4大業務出現變化，並將訂單倍增至25億令吉，但其估值卻相對廉宜，14倍本益比原比金務大的20倍低，而市場也持續為其建築業務輸送可觀價值，將是今年大資本建築股投資首選。”

打房发酵‧產业交易恐挫10%

预算案打房措施的效应发酵，令今年產业交易量唯恐受挫5至10%，產业价成长也预计平平。

基本建设计划是產业中期的重估催化剂，分析员也对檳城的產业展望保持正面，预见消息流將带动檳城的產业需求。

隨新產业盈利税、外国人置產的最低限价提高、利息承担计划终止等，纷纷自1月开跑，兴业研究相信，投资者在首季需时监督產业市场整体措施的衝击力，儘管如此，相信政府不太可能再度祭出打房措施。

產业表现看地点
兴业表示，儘管產业价在地段、建筑和遵从成本保持稳定持续走高下保持稳定，惟发展商將发现，在外围需求疲弱下，难以进一步提高產业售价，盈利赚幅料承压。

发展商在没有利息承担计划下需回归到基本要素，如產业地点。拥有设施的好据点和成熟区，產业需求料持续，同时，因可负担问题，中等房屋和城镇的表现將较高档產业优。

其中，双威镇、蒲种、武吉加里尔为已发展地段，加影/万宜/士毛月、哥文寧/沙亚南是巴生河流域的新成长区。

兴业也看好基建计划，包括捷运线2和3，及高铁计划，对產业市场激起的溢出效应，估计和捷运线1相似，而高铁发展也料刺激吉隆坡和依斯干达走廊產业市场。

看好檳產业市场
兴业也依然看好檳城產业市场，预见今年的消息流转强。除首季將开幕的檳城第二大桥，大山脚的投资增加，也对檳城的房市有利。

地段持有人如恆大置地（TAMBUN，5191，主板產业组）、环球东方（GOB，1147，主板產业组）和马顿（MALTON，6181，主板產业组）因积极扩充地段，將是主要受惠者。

销售目標或下调
隨今年整体產业销量成长料隨交易量滑落而放缓，发展商今年或公佈较保守的销售目標，同时，因发展商不能再提供优惠配套，產业赚幅料承压。
“发展商在復甦前，可能需经歷另一季度產业销量放缓的失落。”

兴业认为，碍於產业需求低落，一些发展商可能展延原定在末季推介的產品，尤其高档產业。

自发展商於去年11月公佈第三季业绩，產业销量放缓在去年下半年明显，综合9家发展商，第三季整体销量按季挫跌9%。

迄今，高美达（GLOMAC，5020，主板產业组）是首个下调產业销售目標的发展商，UOA发展（UOADEV，5200，主板產业组）也预示今年销量成长平平。

其实，就连实达集团（SPSETIA，8664，主板產业组）今年也未放眼新销售目標，显示產业市场的信心疲弱，並自高点走低。

马星唯一上调销售目標
马星集团（MAHSING，8583，主板產业组）是唯一依然对销售目標有信心者，放眼2014年销售目標36亿令吉，较去年的30亿令吉增长20%，惟兴业认为，管理层可能在今年后期下调销售目標。

中小股看俏
產业指数继政府宣佈打房措施以来已下跌5%，儘管產业股目前估值不贵，但兴业认为，產业领域短期缺乏能够引起重估的正面催化剂，在相信市场一般需3至6个月去调適监管变动下，產业股士气可能需至次季才復甦。

兴业保持產业领域“中和”评级，特看好中小型股，尤其可负担房屋业者，如恆大置地、金群利（MATRIX，5236，主板產业组）和华阳（HUAYANG，5062，主板產业组），相信这些业者的產品较能够承受逆风。

兴业也基於產品多元性唱好怡保置地（IJMLAND，5215，主板產业组）。

黄金与自由经济

作者：格林斯潘（1966年）

歇斯底里地来反对金本位制度，几乎把持有不同观点的统计学者们联合在一起的观点。虽然他们看起来是明白，可能比起那些一味崇尚「自由放任经济」的人看得更为清楚和仔细点，黄金和自由的经济是分不开的，两者互依互存，换句话说，金本位是实现「自由放任经济」的手段。
　　
为了弄清楚这些统计学者抵制金本位制的原因，有必要先来认识黄金在一个自由社会中所扮演的特殊角色。
　　
货币是进行所有经济交易的前提，它是一种能被交易参与者普遍接受的用来在交换经济体中对他们的商品或服务进行支付的，起到交换媒介的一种物品；因此，它被用作是市场价值和储藏价值的一个标準，比如，我们可以用它来进行储蓄。
　　
这种物品（指货币）的存在是经济体进行劳动分工的前提。如果，人类没能拥有像货币那样能反映出商品客观价值并被普遍接受的物品，那麽他们将要重新回到原始的物物交换或者被迫进行自给自足的社会中，因为这样将无法衡量专业化生产的种种优点。其次，要是人类没有办法储存价值（比如储蓄），那麽我们既不能进行长期地计划，也无法使得交换成为可能。
　　
那麽，怎麽样的交换中介才能被一个经济体内的所有成员所接纳呢？这并非是什麽武断的决定，首先，被选中的交换中介得是耐用的。在原始社会中，小麦可能是种足够耐用的物品，而被选中做为交换中介，因为所有的交易只会发生在收穫季节里的一个相当短暂的时间里，基本上没有「价值盈馀」可供储存。但是，当价值储存变得相当重要时，在那些人民更富裕，更文明的社会里，交换的中介必须是种更为耐用的物品，通常金属会被选中。之所以会选中一种金属来作为媒介物，是因为金属的质地比较均匀并且容易分割：每一个（被分割出来）的部分跟其他部分的质地都是相同的，另外，金属还可以被任意地熔炼在一起或分割成任何数量的规则形状。举个例子来说，那些珍贵的珠宝就既不能做到质地均匀又难以进行（任意）分割。更重要的是，被选种作为交换媒介的物品还必须是奢侈品。人类对奢侈品的占有欲是无限止的，因此能永远都有对奢侈品的需求并接受之。小麦在没有解决温饱的文明体系中是种奢侈品（所以能被接受成为媒介），但在现代繁荣的社会 中却远称不上奢侈。香烟，在当今是如此得普通以至於不可能被当作货币来使用，但二战刚结束的那会儿，在欧洲，它绝对算得上是一种奢侈品，并可以被用来交换其他商品。「奢侈品」这个术语，意味著那些稀缺的或单位价值高昂的物品。单位价值高（的商品），就是轻便的商品，举个例子，一盎司的黄金就价值半吨的生铁。
　　
在货币经济的早期发展阶段，存在著各式各样的交换媒介，这是因为有非常多的物品符合我们前面所说的（成为交换媒介的）条件。然而，最终只会有一种被人们更为广泛地接受的物品，逐渐取代了其他的物品。对於持有何种物品来达到价值贮藏的目的，因为偏好的因素，（人们）最终把他们的选择移向能为最广泛的人所接受的物品上。当然，这也使得某种物品被越来越多的人所接受。这种移动会一直进行到只剩下唯一的交换媒介为止。这种对单一交换媒介的使用，就像货币社会之所以比物物交换的原始社会更为进步的原因一样，是相当有利的：因为这使交换可以在不可胜数的大规模情况下得以进行。
　　
当有黄金、白银、海贝、牲畜以及烟叶等可供选择的物品来当作交换媒介时，一个经济体只得视其历史及发展状况来选择。事实上，上述的这些物品都曾在不同的时期里被当作交换媒介使用过。即便到了本世纪（指20世纪），黄金和白银这两样主要的物品还一直被当作国际上通用的交换媒介，其中黄金更是成为能起到（货币）支配作用的（交换媒介）。黄金兼具美感和功能作用，以及（更为重要的）相对稀缺的属性使其具有相当优越的条件来成为交换媒介。从第一次世界大战初开始，它已经成为了事实上的国际交换标準。但是如果所有的商品及服务都依靠黄金来支付，那麽这种支付手段将难以执行，这将会限制社会劳动分工和专业化生产的扩大。因此，银行系统开始大肆发展交换媒介的衍生物，以及信用制度的创立（银行票證及保證金），并以此作为黄金的一种可自由兑换的替换品。
　　
一个建立在黄金（储备）之上的自由银行系统是可以根据经济体的生产要求，来发行银行票證（现金货币）和保證金来达到扩展信用（规模）的。他们以支付利息的方式来吸引黄金持有者把他们手头上的黄金存进银行里（需要时他们可以签出支票）。但是，因为所有的存款人在同一时间里提取他们的黄金的情况很少发生，所以银行只需留有很小一小部分的黄金储备。这使得银行能够贷出比他们所持有的黄金储备更多的货币。这意味著银行所声称的黄金储量较之事实上所持 有的要多得多。所幸的是，银行对贷款量始终不是进行武断控制的，他是通过衡量其（黄金）储备量和他的投资状况来作出决定的。
　　
当银行贷款为生产融资，努力地带来收益，并且贷款能及时归时，银行的的信用将被持续下去。但是一旦银行为极具商业风险的项目融资，导致利润下滑甚至无法及时归还贷款，银行会很快发现他们的贷款总额相对於他们的黄金储备量已显著过量，因此将用提高利率的方法来减少新贷款。这将使银行限制新的贷款，并要求现在的借款者，在他们得到为未来扩张所需要的信用之前，提高他们的赢利能力。从而，使得在金本位制度下，银行系统成为经济体的保护者，使其能稳定且平衡地增长。当黄金被大多数甚至所有国家都接受的时候，一个畅通无阻的自由国际金本位制度就能培养出一个在世界範围内的劳动分工以及最大範围的国际贸易。即使货币单位因国而异（英镑、美元、法郎等等），只要用黄金来衡量不同的货币，那麽不同的经济体终将成为一个整体，对贸易或者资本的流动，都将毫无阻碍。信用、利率，以及价格在所有的国家中都将趋於相似。举个例子来说，如果一个国家的银行总是不受限制地进行信用扩张，那麽那个国家的利率水平自然会下降，而这将诱使黄金储户就会把他们的黄金放到利率水平更高的其他国家的银行里去。这将迅速在「容易获得货币」的国家内造成银行的储备短缺，从而施行信用紧缩制度以使利率回复到具有竞争力的较高水平。
　　
从来都没有一个充分自由的银行系统以及始终坚持的金本位制存在过。但是在一次世界大战前，美国（以及世界上大多数国家）的银行是建立在黄金（储备）之上的，即使政府偶尔会干涉进来，银行还是并未受到太大的控制。於是，週期性地，由於银行过快地进行信用扩张，银行的贷款额度超出了他们的黄金储备， 利率随之上升，新的信贷被停止，经济开始下滑，导致短暂的经济衰退。（与1920年和1932年的经济萧条相比，第一次世界大战前的经济下滑是相对缓和 的）。有限的黄金储备，在第一次世界大战前的几次经济危机前，抑制了不平衡的商业扩张，以免受灾难之苦。经济体在经历了短暂的调整後，得到了恢复，并开始新的商业扩张。
　　
但是对经济週期的治疗手段却是对疾病的误诊：如果是银行储备的短缺而引起了经济衰退的话，政府干预经济学者争辩道，为什麽不采用某些方法 来提供更多的银行储备，以此来消除短缺呢？！

如果银行要继续按照需求，随意地发放贷款，他们就要避免商业衰退。於是在1913年组建了联邦储备系统。该系统最初的12家联邦储备银行，在名义上全部都是私有的，但事实上是由政府资助，并且在背後控制和支持著。这些银行所扩张的信用（虽然并不合法）实际上是由联邦政府运用税收来作保證的。从技术上来说，我们仍然保留著金本位制：个人仍然可以自由地拥有黄金，黄金仍然被银行用来作为储备。但是现在，除了黄金以 外，联邦储备银行用纸币（票据储备）来合法地支付给存款人，并以此进行信用扩张。
　　
当美国经济在忍受1927的紧缩时，联邦储备当局印製了更多的票据储备以期预防任何有可能出现的银行储备短缺问题。可是，更为严重的是，联邦储备银行试著去帮助黄金储备大量流失到我国的大不列颠帝国，因为当时英格兰银行（英国央行）拒绝按照市场行情而提高利率（政治因素）。比较权威的理由是：只要联邦储备银行把大量的票据储蓄到美国的银行里，那麽美国的利率将会下降到跟英国相似的水平上；这将意味著英国可以避免由利率上升所带来的政治困窘，并达到防止黄金从英国流失的目的。联邦储备银行获得了成功；它阻止了黄金的流失，但却几乎毁掉了整个世界经济。联邦储备银行在经济体中创造的过量信用，被股票市场所吸收，从而刺激了投机行为并产生了一次荒谬的繁荣。联邦储备银行曾试图吸收那些多馀的储备，希望能最终成功地压制投机带来的繁荣。但却太迟 了：1929年投机所带来的不平衡压倒了联储的紧缩尝试，并导致商业信心的丧失。结果，美国经济崩溃了。英国的遭遇更加糟糕，比其先前荒唐的政策更为严重的是，她於1931年彻底地放弃了金本位制，使得由其纺织业所支撑的商业信心也被彻底破碎，并引起了世界範围内的一系列银行破产。世界经济在1930年代陷入了「大萧条」。 （註：大萧条显然并非自由经济造成，也非黄金造成，而是政府违经济规律，长期扭曲市场所造成的）
　　
联想到一代人之前，统计学者们争辩到是由金本位制导致的信用崩溃触发了「大萧条」。如果不存在金本位制，1931年英国放弃用黄金作为支付手段是不会引起全世界银行的系统的崩溃，他们争辩道。（讽刺的是，如果1913年时我们没有采用金本位制，而是采用所谓的「混合金本位制」，那麽今天黄金还是一样会受到他们的责备。）但是，任何一种持反对金本位制的观点，与日俱增的福利制度拥护者，都极其敏锐地认识到：金本位的实行是与长期赤字开支相矛盾的 （长期的赤字开支是福利国家的通病）。撇开学术上的行话，福利制度只是个由政府对生产组织的财富进行充公，以此来保障一个大範围的福利计划而已。这种充公则大抵是靠税收来执行的。但是福利经济统计学者们很快就意识到了，如果还想保持他们的政权的话，那麽必须控制税收的额度，为他们大量的赤字支出采取有效的规划。比如，他们必须依靠发行政府债券的方式来借钱为大量的福利制度进行融资。
　　
在金本位制度下，一个经济体的信用额度是可以依靠该经济体的有形资产来决定的，因为所有的信用工具，从根本上来说都是根据对有形资产的需求而启用的。但是政府债券的背後却没有有形资产的支撑，政府只是承诺用未来税收来兑现，并且无法轻易地为金融市场所接纳。新的大量的政府债券只能通过日益提高的利率来发售。这样，在金本位制下，政府的赤字开支是受到严格约束。放弃使用金本位制，使得福利经济统计学者们可以通过银行系统来进行不受限制的信用扩张。他们以政府债券的形式创造出票据储备，通过一系列複杂的步骤，以使银行象接受有形资产一样地接受它们，并当作已经有了实际储备一样。政府债券或者银行票据抵押的持有者相信，他对真实资产是有索取权的。但目前的情况是这种索取的数目是远远大於真实资产的数目的。供求原理是无法违背的：当货币的（索取权的） 供应相对於有形资产的供应增多时，那麽这些资产的价格必将攀升，从而使得生产者们的储蓄（货币）价值相对於商品来说是下降了。当该经济体的帐本终於平衡起来的时候，人们会发现因为政府出於实行福利政策或其他目的的收入而以发行政府债券的方法所造成的银行信用扩张，最终导致了货币的购买能力下降。
　　
当抛弃了金本位制後，面对著以通货膨胀的形式进行的「储蓄充公」，我们束手无策。安全的价值储藏已不复存在。 如果有，政府将使它成为不合法的储存，就像过去对待黄金那样。当有人决定把他的银行抵押全部兑换成白银或铜或其他商品，并从此不再接受银行的商品支票时， 银行的储备将失去它们的购买能力，由政府所创造的银行信用也将因为（人们）要求实现他们对商品的索取权而变得毫无价值可言。福利国家的财经政策要求剥夺财产所有者对自己财产的保护权。
　　
这是掩藏在福利经济统制者们反对金本位制的演说中的卑劣秘密。财政赤字的支出，是充公生产者财产的一种简单的制度安排。金本位是天生针对这种阴险的制度的。它充当著产权保护者的角色。如果人们领会了这一点，那麽也就不难理解那些统计学者们（福利经济统制者）对金本位制的抵制了。

10 stocks to watch in 2014 Part 1

IT’S the start of the new year and investors get the chance to make their own choices on what stocks to buy.

Making the right decisions could make the difference between the proverbial pot of gold or losses by the end of the year.

StarBizWeek is suggesting some stocks worth looking out for. Some have strong fundamentals while others are driven by specifics including thematic, mergers and acquisitions or simply rotational plays.

1. Gadang Holdings Bhd

ONCE a pure construction player, this company is fast transforming itself into a diversified group.

Its property segment, utility and plantation divisions will eventually provide solid support to the group’s total income base where currently construction is still the main driver.

Under its construction division, it has an outstanding order book of about RM1.2bil which according to estimates provides earnings visibility of at least three years for the group.

It will tender for up to RM6bil worth of jobs and near-term replenishment could come from the second phase of Petronas’ Rapid project in Pengerang worth some RM300mil, according to a note by JF Apex Securities. The project which involves the construction of a cogeneration plan is expected to be awarded early this year.

Gadang was awarded the job for the first phase of the project.

Under its property segment, some RM425mil worth of launches are earmarked for the current financial year ending May 31.

Gadang has also joined the PR1MA fray by being a partner to government-owned Cyberview Sdn Bhd. The first phase of their affordable homes project in Cyberjaya is expected to be launched in the middle of this year with a gross development value of RM150mil.

Pre-tax profit from Gadang’s property segment increased four-fold to RM4.3mil for the latest quarter from RM1mil a year earlier.

On its utility division, the company is said to be in negotiations to beef up its Indonesia water treatment capacity business where it has controlling stakes in five Indonesian water supply companies.

Its water supply division currently contributes about 10% to the group’s pre-tax profit.

It is also moving into the mini-hydro power generation business where in October it said it would pay RM3.06mil for an 80% stake in PT Hidronusa Rawan Energi, which is currently pursuing a 4MW hydropower project in Indonesia.

This is the company’s second purchase following the acquisition of a 60% stake in a 9MW mini-hydropower project in May for RM3mil.

Contribution from the mini-hydro power generation business, however, is not expected to be immediate as it will take at least two years for the full infrastructure to be put into place.

Gadang also hopes to ride on a potential recovery of crude palm oil prices which headed south last year

JF Apex notes that early harvesting had commenced in early 2012 and the group projected RM20mil of yearly revenue from this business upon maturity, which is about four to five years from now.

For its latest quarter to Aug 31, Gadang’s net profit soared 184% to RM7.1mil on revenue of RM113.5mil compared with a net profit of RM2.5mil on revenue of RM47.3mil previously.

The stock last traded at RM1.02 which is about nine times price earnings ratio to the group’s FY2014 forecast earnings.

JF Apex and UOBKayHian Research have a target price of RM1.43 and RM1.50 respectively on Gadang, suggesting an upside of about 44% on average from the current price.

Catalysts

- Sizeable and growing construction order book which give clear earnings visibility.

- Analysts project earnings growth of 32% compound annual growth rate from FY14-FY16.

- Diversification into property, utility and plantation segments.

- In net cash position, possibly growing dividends for shareholders.

Risks

- Slowdown in domestic consumption could affect demand for property.

- Failure to secure the anticipated contracts.

2. Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd

A number of “monetisation” exercises poised to take place in the first quarter of this year should catapult MRCB back onto the radar of investors and analysts. Insiders say the exercises could include the disposal of a major non-core unit and the creation of a large commercial REIT (real estate investment trust), the latter possibly via a merger and acquisition of an existing REIT.

These exercises should raise enough cash to repay a significant portion of its debts. MRCB was in a net debt position of close to RM3bil as of Dec 31, 2013.

MRCB chief operating officer Imran Salim (pic right) said in a recent interview that the company was seriously making efforts to turn itself into a pure property-focussed group.

Imran is the son of Datuk Mohamad Salim Fateh Din (pic left), the self-made entrepreneur and property tycoon who emerged as MRCB’s new CEO in September following the merger with his privately held Nusa Gapurna Sdn Bhd. Both father and son are busy turning around MRCB but poor earnings in the third quarter spooked investors and analysts. MRCB posted a loss of RM122mil for its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2013 compared with a net profit of RM35.8mil a year ago as a result of significant provisioning, following an apparent kitchen-sinking exercise by its new owners.

But moving forward, there are positive catalysts. First up, is the strong possibility that the company could be announcing some major “unlocking of value” deals that could include the sale of a significant non-core business. There is speculation that it could create a mega REIT, which would be progressively used to inject more of its yielding assets into.

MRCB had also said there would be no more kitchen-sinking exercises in the near future. On the contrary, earnings could get a boost from capital gains from disposal of assets. Salim and son are also promising an improvement in efficiency through better management of operations that should translate into better margins and lower cost over-runs.

And they are positive on the outcome from their negotiations with the Government on charging toll on its Eastern Dispersal Lin Expressway (EDL). If successful, this would be a cash cow for MRCB.

Catalysts

- Monetisation exercises will see MRCB unlock value and de-gear.

- New management team led by Salim and son to turn around the company and enhance effiencies and margins.

- Stock price has yet to factor in the turnaround efforts.

- Successful negotation with Government on EDL toll.

Risks

- Can they find buyers for their assets at the right price?

- New management may not be able to integrate the incumbent team.

- Property market downgrade.

3. Eco World Development Group Bhd

RIDING on property magnate Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin’s name, Eco World Development Group Bhd, is a stock that should be watched closely. This is despite the fact that Liew’s name has never appeared in the company.

His eldest son Liew Tian Xiong, however, is the single largest shareholder with a 35% stake in the company. Junior Liew is also a director in the property firm at a tender age of 23.

After a reverse takeover (RTO) was done on Focal Aims Holdings Bhd for RM1.40 apiece, the stock has more than tripled to RM4.39.

Although there were no major announcements related to corporate exercises, save for the change in name, board, and financial year-end, the market is anticipating something positive from the company.

Sources say announcements on the company’s corporate exercise, which might include a placement and/or asset injection, could be done in the near-term.

Its net asset per share as of Sept 30, 2013 stood at RM1.27. Some of the listed company’s core assets included 426ha in Plentong and 1,011ha in Kota Masai, Johor.

The interesting part will be Eco World Development Holdings Sdn Bhd (formerly known as Maple Quay Sdn Bhd), which now owns some 30% in the listed company.

Before the RTO, the then privately held entity, was reported to co-own with another private company 1,214ha in Penang, Johor and the Klang Valley with a gross development value of RM30bil.

Home-buyers showed confidence in the company as they snapped up units in EcoBotanic and flooded its KL showroom before its official launch.

Catalysts

- Big name linked to the company.

- Possible near-term corporate exercises including assets injection.

- Experienced management team.

- Overwhelming response to product launches.

Risks

- Lack of information to gauge the stock’s actual value.

- Slowdown in property market.

- Low liquidity.

4. Daya Materials Bhd

DAYA Materials Bhd was one of Bursa Malaysia’s outperformers last year. The stock was up 116% for 2013.

With an existing orderbook of RM1.5bil, there are possibilities for more contracts and record profits.

Daya created waves last year when it won two major charter contracts from Norway. The earnings from these contracts are set to be realised this year.

Based on consensus estimates, Daya’s net profit is set to scale new highs of RM29mil (44% jump) for the year ended Dec 31, 2013 (FY13), RM43mil (47% increase) in FY14 and RM49mil (15% increase) in FY15, fuelled by its orderbook of RM1.5bil and an expanding fleet.

Over the last decade, Daya has been more focused on the downstream oil and gas (O&G) segment. It chugged along, growing organically until 2013, when it entered the offshore construction segment.

It formed Daya Offshore Construction Bhd (DOC) in September 2012. The arrival of vessels Siem Daya 1 and Siem Daya 2 proved to be Daya’s inflection point.

On Aug 16, Daya clinched a seven year charter contract from Technip for the provision of a subsea construction vessel. This project will run for 100 to 175 days per annum commencing in 2014 with an estimated value of RM250mil to RM440mil.

On Sept 3, Daya won again with Technip, when it secured another three-year contract for a period of 100 to 175 days with an estimated value of RM100mil to RM176mil.

For the nine months to Sept 30, 2013, Daya’s revenue jumped 110% to RM373mil and net profit increased 26.74% to RM18.9mil.

However, contributions from the North Sea are set to climb starting from the first quarter of 2014, as contributions from Siem Daya 1 and Siem Daya 2 kick in.

CIMB estimates that Daya’s revenue could further increase should Reach Energy Bhd, in which Daya has made an investment as an initial investor, acquire O&G assets overseas.

Reach Energy is set to become Malaysia’s fourth special purpose acquisition company once it gains the approval for a listing from the Securities Commission.

Catalysts:

- Record profits.

- Orderbook of RM1.5bil.

- Potential contract wins from Petronas and Norway.

- Listing of Reach Energy Bhd.

Risks

- Failure to deliver on its contracts and replenish orderbook.

- Tough competition for the Malaysian RSCs.

5. Engtex Group Bhd

A successful consolidation of the Selangor water industry could lead Engtex, already the country’s largest pipe maker by market capitalisation, even higher.

Going into its sixth year of stalemate, water talks have been gaining fresh traction since last year.

Already, the Engtex stock has reflected this, doubling last year to reach a high of RM1.78. It has since come off a little, last trading at RM1.61.

As the newly-structured water industry should involve the long-overdue replacement of the country’s aging water pipelines, Engtex by virtue of its track record and expertise is bound to get a slice of this.

Engtex chief financial officer Khoo Chong Keong in a recent interview with StarBizWeek said of the 130,000km of pipes in Malaysia, a third were made of asbestos cement, which has been known to cause cancer.

Assuming that just half of the asbestos cement pipes are replaced with mild steel and ductile iron pipes, the industry is looking at a potential RM5bil market.

Meanwhile, the Langat 2 project, which is crucial to the state’s impending water crisis, will also require some 50,000 tonnes of pipes worth RM200mil.

Engtex is touted as a frontrunner to clinch pipe supply jobs for Langat 2.

There is also Petronas’ Rapid project which will require some RM200mil worth of pipes.

On the east coast, Engtex is targeting some RM100mil in pipe orders for Kuantan Port City, a RM4bil industrial and logistics hub to be developed by 2020.

On top of these, some RM800mil in new pipes for housing projects and mega projects such as Johor’s Iskandar Malaysia is needed annually, Engtex revealed.

For its third quarter ended Sept 30, Engtex reported a net profit of RM10.4mil against a net profit of RM7.7mil for the same period a year ago.

For the nine months ended Sept 30, it had made a net profit of RM38.5mil against a net profit of RM30.3mil in 2012.

Maybank IB in a July report predicted that Engtex would make some RM42mil in net profit for its FY13 and RM48.4mil thereafter.

Catalysts

- Highly news-driven stock, poised to enjoy spillover effects in the event there is closure for the Selangor water consolidation industry.

- High potential for jobs given healthy flow of infrastructure projects.

Risks

- Do not secure the anticipated contracts.

- High capex requirements in the near-term, possibly capping dividend payouts.

10 stocks to watch in 2014 Part 2

6. Brahim's Holdings Bhd

IN-FLIGHT caterer Brahim’s Holdings Bhd has a two-pronged catalyst moving forward. First, it is exploring ways to increase its market share in the global halal food market, and second, it aims to become the third player to control the Malaysian sugar market.

The company’s core business is airport-centric, focusing on the provision of in-flight catering and restaurant operations. Brahim’s, through its subsidiary, holds a concession with Malaysia Airlines for the provision of in-flight catering and related services.

Analysts have likened Brahim’s business as a proxy to the vibrant airline industry minus the baggage of ticket price war and jet fuel price fluctuations. Currently, close to 90% of its revenue comes from its catering business.

Brahim’s bought a 60% stake in Admuda Sdn Bhd. Admuda has a licence from the International Trade and Industry Ministry to manufacture refined sugar and molasses for Sabah and Sarawak. The licence awarded to Admuda was the third by MITI in 37 years as sugar is a regulated commodity.

Brahim’s is looking to dominate these states by 2015 with the setting up of a RM150mil sugar refinery factory in the Demak Laut Industrial Park in Kuching.

Presently, the sugar market in Malaysia is controlled by Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd’s unit, MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd, and Central Refinery Sdn Bhd, with two sugar refineries each in Peninsular Malaysia.

Brahim’s refinery will have the capacity to produce up to 180,000 tonnes of refined sugar per annum with a potential to expand to 400,000 tonnes.

An analyst from Hong Leong sees Brahim’s pre-tax profit growing 12% to RM57.8mil in FY14 and 32.4% to RM76.5mil in FY15.

Meanwhile, an analyst from Alliance is forecasting Brahim’s pre-tax profit to grow 26.5% to RM64.9mil and 23.6% to RM80.2mil in FY15.

For the nine months to Sep 30, 2013, net profit jumped 163.6% to RM10.19mil while revenue rose to RM285.7mil from RM7.4mil previously.

Catalysts:

- Sustainable earnings from long-term concession agreements.

- Further activities in the sugar refinery business.

- Maiden dividends.

Risks:

- Slowdown in passenger movements.

- Termination of concession agreements.

- Earnings highly dependable on economic conditions/pandemics.

7. MKH Bhd

MKH, previously known as Metro Kajang Holdings Bhd, came under the limelight after Hwang DBS Vickers Research initiated coverage, with a target price of RM5.40, providing 83% upside to its last done price of RM2.95.

The stock had since been on an upward trend, climbing some 65% year-on-year.

Before the research house issued the note, the counter came under the radar of Kenanga Research and SJ Securities Sdn Bhd.

A poll by Bloomberg indicates that there are three “buy” calls on the company.

Hwang DBS Vickers Research highlighted the company’s hidden value under its plantation segment.

The company had ventured into oil palm plantation with an acreage of 15,942ha in East Kalimantan since 2008.

The brokerage notes that the plantation business has posted maiden profits in its financial year ended Sept 30, 2013 (FY13) and is projected to grow at 31% three-year earnings compounded annual growth rate given its young tree profile, when trees are usually most productive.

“Despite the promising prospects, MKH is only trading at five times FY15 price-to-earnings (P/E), an undeserving 70% discount to the Malaysian small-mid-cap plantation peers’ average P/E multiple,” analyst Quah He Wei writes.

Metro Kajang is a well-known brand equity in Kajang and Semenyih. With a land bank of 202.34ha there, it is set to benefit from the rising land prices, given its low land cost and strategic tracts adjacent to two mass rapid transit (MRT) stations, he adds.

Its recorded unbilled sales of RM503mil in FY13 is underpinned by the rising demand for mid-market housing, improved connectivity via MRT and growing affluence in its focus market, Quah says, adding that RM890mil worth of new properties in FY14.

Catalysts

– Fast growing, cheap plantation play.

– Under appreciated.

– Beneficiary of MRT connectivity.

– Record unbilled sales buoyed by strong demand for affordable housing.

Risks

– Heavy focus on Kajang/Semenyih development

– Fluctuation in crude palm oil prices

– Headwinds in the property market

- By Ne Bei Shan

8. Scomi Engineering Bhd

SCOMI has been under the radar for some time. The last two big contracts it bagged were the RM1.85bil Mumbai monorail project in 2008 in a joint venture with India’s Larsen and Toubro Ltd and another job in Brazil worth RM5.6bil in 2011.

The fortunes of Scomi hasn’t exactly been bright. It has been in the red over the last three financial years despite having won big contracts. Its share price is also at one of its lowest points at the 39.5 sen level. Its 52-week low is 38 sen on May 3 last year.

So what is there to look forward to? Proposals have been made for the extension of the KL Monorail to Bandar Sunway. Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd and Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd have reportedly submitted their proposals.

Scomi, which built and owns the system of Malaysia’s only monorail, is the technical partner to provide the systems and cars (pic).

For the six months to Sept 30, 2013, Scomi recorded net loss of RM24.97mil on the back of revenue of RM110.85mil.

The results were mainly due to net unrealised foreign exchange losses of RM3.6mil for the quarter and RM18.3mil from both Mumbai and Line 17 projects.

The weakening of the Indian rupee has also resulted in the unrealised losses on the receivables from the client in the Mumbai monorail project.

Scomi’s focus at the moment is to strengthen its presence in Malaysia, India and Brazil amidst intense competition. These countries have committed plans to develop Urban Rail Systems in their major cities.

The rail segment will maintain its focus on the implementation of key projects in Mumbai, Kuala Lumpur and Brazil. Phase 1 of the Mumbai Monorail Project was expected to be commissioned in December 2013.

Catalysts

- Winning new contracts.

- Downside limited as it is already making losses and share price close to 52-week low.

Risks

- Failure to bag new contracts.

- Cost overruns in its existing contracts.

9. Fitters Diversified Bhd

WHILE some investors find the company too diversified for their liking, there are a number of catalysts for Fitters that makes the company one of the smaller ones to watch in 2014.

First could be a listing of its wholly-owned renewable energy unit Future NRG Sdn Bhd, say insiders. Fitters core business is in fire-fighting.

The catalyst in this segment is a potential merger to form the region’s largest fire-fighting business.

However, this was supposed to have taken place earlier with Singapore’s Deluge Fire Protection Pte Ltd but some delays have occurred. Still, a third and increasingly significant division is property, that produced some attractive profits in the company’s last reported quarter.

In announcing its good Q3 FY2013 earnings last November, Fitters also said that it had entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Molecaor Technologia S.L. of Spain to penetrate the market of PVC pressure pipes in Malaysia and other South-East Asian markets.

Insiders say that this could be a lucrative market for Fitters if executed well, considering that the Spanish company holds patents to state-of-the-art piping that hits the right price points and is the most suitable replacement for aging water pipes around the region. Banking sources said that Fitters was looking to float Future NRG in Malaysia or Singapore, which would raise funds for future expansion.

Renewable energy companies have been enjoying keen investor interest in markets in the United States and the UK.

Future NRG is involved in renewable, alternative and waste-to-energy projects such palm oil green mills, biomass plants and biogas capture plants.

Catalysts

- Unlocking of value from its diversified base via M&As.

- Dividends could be in the offing.

- Possible overseas listing of renewable energy unit and steady earnings growth.

Risks

- Execution risks and delays in unlocking value and property market downgrade.

10. PJ Development Holdings Bhd

AFTER launching a takeover on OSK Ventures International Bhd, people are interested to know what shrewd businessman Tan Sri Ong Leong Huat is up to next.

He emerged in PJD as a substantial shareholder last November and was subsequently appointed non-independent and non-executive chairman on Dec 23.

He is also the managing director and chief executive officer at OSK Property Holdings Bhd. Ong has a 21.4% stake in PJD while he owns 57.8% of the latter.

Following the divestment of OSK Investment Bank Bhd to RHB Capital Bhd, the seasoned stockbroker had expressed OSK Holdings Bhd’s focus on property, among others, to develop the land next to OSK Plaza with a gross development value of RM1bil.

“Due to the lukewarm sentiment in the property market now, it could be a good time for him to carry out a merger and acquisition or some form of restructuring among the entities he own,” observers say.

PJD’s net asset per share was RM2.17 as of Sept 30, 2013, implying a discount of 38% compared to its share price.

Recently, the property player announced the sale of Menara PJD along Jalan Tun Razak, which will see it bag RM101mil that translates into earnings per share of 22 sen.

Catalysts

– Possible merger and acquisition play.

– Disposal of Menara PJD that translates into EPS of 22 sen.

– Discount of 38% to net asset per share.

Risk

– Slowdown in property market.