打房衝击消化‧大型產业股后市唱好

產业股估值已充份消化冷却房市措施负面衝击，兴业研究指强劲的经济成长展望、负利率环境以及即將来临的基建计划有利於產业领域发展，因此建议“加码”大型產业股。

2014年財政预算案宣佈至今已有5个月，兴业表示，相信產业股估值已充份消化冷却房市措施消息的衝击，目前產业股在重估净资產值折价33%的水平交易，仅稍高於预算案前估值，並远低近期高峰约13%。

同时，自去年1月以来，吉隆坡產业指数中的小型股项价格已劲扬56%，比大型股的26%来得高，有鑑於此，兴业建议投资者加码大型產业股，因大型產业公司一般拥有更强稳的財务、优良地库、知名度、扎实的管理和良好的营运纪录，而这些股项目前以相当吸引的估值交易。

马新高铁
捷运成重估催化因素

“此外，马新高铁、捷运第2和3线以及Kwasa白沙罗產业计划將是產业领域的重估催化因素，特別是巴生河流域。”

“檳城的成长主要还是来源於流入峇都交湾计划的资金，惟柔佛依斯干达方面，虽然有形市场需要时间復甦，但市场有柔佛將建立新赌场传言，若確实成立，外溢效应將带动该区域的產业领域发展。”

兴业表示，预计產业需求將在今年下半年回扬，强劲的经济展望和消费税前夕购屋潮都有利於產业领域发展。

因此，兴业上调產业领域评级至“加码”评级，並点名怡保置地（IJMLAND，5215，主板產业组）和双威（SUNWAY，5211，主板產业组）为首选股项，同时也看好恆大置地（TAMBUN，5191，主板產业组）和金群利（MATRIX，5236，主板產业组）的主题概念。

盈利可保持稳健

艾芬研究维持审慎看待產业市场前景，但预料產业发展商的盈利可保持稳健。

艾芬预见產业市场即將走缓，因短期循环性因素如竞爭升温、银行借贷谨慎、打房措施的实施以及负担能力下滑拖累產业市场发展。

“儘管如此，我们预期发展商在2014年及2015年的盈利可维持稳健，主要受高额未进账销售所扶持。”

艾芬指发展商已採取数项措施来应对產业市场放缓预期，如改善產品种类和行销策略，包括在不同的產业热点推出新產业计划，以分散地域风险及攫取更庞大的客户群。

“发展商將產业计划焦点转至需求较稳定的有地產业，同时也举办行销活动吸引新加坡、印尼、中国、香港和日本海外买家。”

艾芬对產业领域维持“中和”评级。

忧消费税將推高房价

產业经纪公司iProperty的《2014年亚洲產业市场情绪》调查报告指出，大马人正適应著冷却房市措施，使他们在买房和投资方面採取谨慎態度；同时，多数受访者也认为消费税將推高產业价格。

该公司首席执行员桑迪格雷戈里奥表示，大马人在场外观望打房措施对房市的影响，在他们消化和回应该措施之际，预期產业市场將因此放缓。

他指出，在6千865名大马受访者当中约有70%的人相信消费税將推高產业价格，也有79%的受访者认为消费税也会导致通货膨胀。

此外，他也透露，房价上扬和可负担课题仍是大马人在上半年的主要忧虑。

“受访者为目前房价的可负担程度打7.5分，而10分为无法负担，1分则是轻鬆负担。”

他表示，八打灵再也、阿拉白沙罗、浦种、依斯干达、檳城和马六甲是投资热点，同时，51%的新加坡受访者表示有强烈的意愿要投资依斯干达，其中有地產业成为他们的头號目標，接著则是私人公寓。

Most people don’t know enough about Malaysia and its government

BY ADAM TAYLOR

Malaysia's government is in the spotlight due to its handling of the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, which disappeared just 40 minutes after leaving Kuala Lumpur en route to Beijing on March 8.

It's an unusual situation for the country. Malaysia doesn't usually make headlines -- it's not a huge tourist destination, like its neighbor Thailand, and it hasn't had a recent disaster like the Philippines or Indonesia. Instead, Malaysia has mostly become known as a quiet success in Southeast Asia in recent years, where GDP per capita was well ahead of Thailand and Indonesia and the economy was expected to grow between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent in 2014.

Now, with the Malaysian government facing scrutiny from all corners, everyone is beginning to wonder: Is there more to Malaysia than meets the eye?

The geography and history of Malaysia

Look at a map of modern Malaysia and the geography of the place may strike you as unusual. Roughly half of the country exists on the Malay Peninsula, bordering the lowest tip of Thailand. The other part of the country is on the northern part of Borneo island, which it shares with Indonesia. In both of these two parts there are smaller states: the city-state of Singapore, which sits just off the coast of the Malay Peninsula, and Brunei, which is in the Malaysian part of Borneo.

The modern Malaysian state began with the Federation of Malaya's independence from the British Empire in 1957, but the area had been populated for a far longer time -- in Sarawak's Niah Caves in East Malaysia, there's evidence of human remains from40,000 years ago. The first independent state covering the region is commonly considered to be the Malacca sultanate, an Islamic Malay monarchy that controlled the area from 1400 to 1511, when the city of Malacca was captured by a Portuguese invasion. After a long period of Portuguese rule, the Dutch took it over in 1641, with the British Empire gradually taking over Penang in 1786, Singapore in 1819, and Malacca itself in 1824, ultimately securing control of what would later become Malaysia.

British rule continued until World War II, when Japanese troops were able to overrun the unprepared British authorities and take over the area. After Japan lost the war, the British returned but could not regain the authority they had before due to their war. An anti-colonial insurgency known as the "Malayan Emergency" began in 1948, compelling Britain to create the Federation of Malaya that same year, which in turn became became independent in 1957. In 1963, modern Malaysia was created with the Malaysia Agreement; North Borneo, Sarawak and Singapore joined it in a new independent state, though Singapore would be expelled two years later. (Brunei, which had once been at the center of the Bruneian Empire, remained an independent, and oil-rich, sultanate).

Malaysia's complicated ethnic politics

Toward the end of British rule, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) emerged as a political force dedicated to protecting ethnic Malays and the Islamic religion. Since independence, the party has been a part of every government alliance.

Today, Malaysia is a constitutional monarchy, loosely modeled after the United Kingdom: The head of state is the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, effectively a monarch elected by Malaysia's traditional Malay rulers. The prime minister is the head of government, officially appointed by the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to lead a majority in Malaysia's lower house of parliament. While the constitution of Malaysia, which came into force in 1957, says all Malaysian citizens are equal, Bumiputera (a designation that refers to the indigenous people of Malaysia, including ethnic Malays) are singled out for special treatment in Article 153. That section of the constitution begins:

1. It shall be the responsibility of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to safeguard the special position of the Malays and natives of any of the States of Sabah and Sarawak and the legitimate interests of other communities in accordance with the provisions of this Article.

The logic behind Article 153 was that Chinese and Indian immigrants to Malaysia had been favored during British rule, and both had subsequently gained economically while Malays and others remained in poverty.

After independence, these economic disparities had begun to cause problems in the country: Singapore's removal from Malaysia was based in part upon a number of race riots that took place in the country between Chinese and Malay groups in 1964, and Kuala Lumpur had its own race riots in 1969. In 1971, economic measures referred to as the “New Economic Policy” (NEP) were implemented to favor Bumiputera, offering them positive discrimination in the civil service and business in a bid to improve their economic standing.

The quiet, yet successful, economy

Under British rule, Malaysia became one of the world's biggest exporters of tin, palm oil and rubber. And as one of the three countries that controls the Strait of Malacca, an important shipping route, it still plays a key role in international trade. High-tech manufacturing has  become a successful part of Malaysia's economy, and Kuala Lumpur is now a global center for Islamic banking. The city is also home to Petronas Towers, which replaced Chicago's Sears Tower (now Willis Tower) as the world's tallest building in 1998 and held the title until 2004.

All this has resulted in a pretty favorable economy. The Doing Business Project recently ranked the country as 6th in its annual rankings, and GDP per capita is higher than neighbors like Thailand and Indonesia.

Despite these good signs, there have been criticisms that the country's ethnic policies were in effect creating a lack of competition and stifling opportunities for non-Bumiputera. The Economist recently noted that 25 percent of the population is thought to be Chinese and to control much of the country's business, while Indians were said to be around 7 percent and overrepresented in professional careers. The magazine warned that Malaysia faces a brain-drain unless more opportunities are put in place for non-Bumiputera ethnic groups.

An angry opposition

As you might expect, 50 years of virtually uncontested rule has resulted in some problems. Writing recently for Bloomberg Businessweek, Joshua Karlantzick argued that the country's ruling coalition only managed to win elections last year due to "gerrymandering, outright thuggery, and opposition parties’ inability to stop squabbling and make connections with rural voters." Despite some minor signs of change, the NEP remains a significant factor in Malaysian political life and its business world, with the ruling parties apparently afraid to alienate the Malay majority who make their base.

The Malaysian government's manner of dealing with opposition leaders also appears to show it's on the back foot. The best-known opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim, was sent to jail on corruption and sodomy charges in 2000. While the sodomy charges were overturned in 2004 and he was released, Anwar is now facing the threat of jail again on more sodomy charges.

An ethnic Malay and former member of UMNO, Anwar was once deputy prime minister of Malaysia but fell out with leaders. He now leads a multi-ethnic three-party opposition group called Pakatan Rakyat, running on a manifesto that aims to end the NEP ethnic policies and promote a system of meritocracy.

Why this all matters to MH370

The response to the disappearance of MH370 from the Malaysian government and Malaysia Airlines (a state-run company) is seen by many as evidence of a lack of ability among the country's political and business elite -- a result of decades of positive discrimination in favor of Malays and a lack of competition in business and politics. Malaysian officials aren't used to dealing with a free and open press, and they have blundered in their attempts to deflect questions about the plane. While they are no longer suspected of involvement in the plane's disappearance, the fact that two passengers were traveling on fake documents has embarrassed both the airline and the state.

It's possible Malaysia's internal politics could have played a direct role in the plane's disappearance. It's true, for example, that pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah was a member of an opposition party and distantly related to Anwar (Anwar himself has said that the speculation about political motives was "grossly unfair" to the pilot). The country's Muslim Brotherhood-styled Islamist party, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), is also a part of Anwar's opposition coalition and increasing in popularity, though speculation about an Islamist-backed terrorist attack remains just speculation.

A more likely problem for Malaysia is that of perception. A country once known for its quietly strong economy is becoming better known as something else: a disorganized, unmeritocratic country completely unable to cope with a real emergency.

Adam Taylor writes about foreign affairs for the Washington Post. Originally from London, he studied at the University of Manchester and Columbia University. You can follow him on Twitter here.

Household debt still a concern, may continue to rise in the short term

High household debt continue to overshadow Malaysian banks’ outlook as debt may continue to rise in the short term, say Fitch Ratings analysts.

They said in a report that the higher leverage remained a downside risk for banks despite having built satisfactory earnings and loan-loss reserve buffers that could help protect them against the risk of deteriorating asset quality.

However, they said tighter lending regulations and receding liquidity conditions should lead to a moderation in credit growth and temper the build-up of risks in the banking system.

They noted that higher leverage remains a downside risk for banks’ financial profiles and ratings, with the risks coming from two fronts.

“First, a sharp increase in macroeconomic volatility would affect households’ debt-servicing capacity. We expect the central bank to begin raising rates in 2014 in response to inflationary pressure stemming partly from rationalisation of government subsidy schemes,” they said.

Secondly, rising household debt could in itself become a drag on growth, if and when Malaysian households decide to rein in spending and start strengthening their balance sheets.

Malaysian households are among the most highly leveraged in Asia with household debt reaching 86.8% of gross domestic product at end-2013, up from 80.5% a year ago, according to data published by Bank Negara last week.

The analysts said measures introduced since 2010 to temper household borrowing and property lending gained steam last year.

“There are signs this is already starting, with growth in household debt slowing to 11.7% in 2013 from 13.5% in 2012,” they said.

They added that an early indicator of household sector stress would come from personal loans as these loans tend to be accessed more by lower-income households.

“A rise in personal loan delinquencies is likely to be accompanied by higher impairments in vehicle finance, which comprises a more significant 15% of banking system assets,” they said.

But they pointed out that around 80% of household debt was secured and that pre-provision profitability would likely remain healthy in the near term.

“Overall loan-impairment remains low, despite having started to creep up for personal loans and vehicle financing,” they said.

The analysts said the banks were also protected by satisfactory loan-loss reserves of between 85% and 119% of gross impaired loans, and core Tier-1 capital buffers of between 8.7% and 11.3% for the top three domestic banks as at end-December 2013.

They said a robust economy, steady job market and rising household incomes backed the brisk growth in household borrowing across a relatively young population base.

负利率时代来临

高通膨將是大马这一两年的常態，人民必须作好心理准备面对物价高涨的压力；同时，基於货幣政策的谨慎，高通膨伴隨而来的负利率时代也已经降临。

资料显示，通膨威胁已经席捲全球，因为肉、菜、咖啡、小麦、牛奶、橙汁等主要食品价格平均上涨25%，连有通缩风险的先进国也受食品通膨威胁。

作为新兴经济的一员，大马在努力减赤打债，合理化津贴的当儿，更难控制通膨的节节高升。

国家银行以谨慎见称，但在最新的年报，国行上调通膨预测至介於3至4%，国行总裁丹斯里洁蒂更不讳言，部份月份会看到超过4%的通膨率。

同时，由於消费税已经暂订在明年4月落实，预料对通膨造成另一重的压力。隨著政府逐步削减汽油、白糖和天然气津贴，放手让电费涨价，通膨压力已经立竿见影的反映在1月和2月的数据上，1月消费价格指数攀至27个月高点的3.4%，2月再攀至32个月新高的3.5%。

对於人民而言，更加不相信通膨只有3.5%，因为通膨根本无处不在，坐在家里，电费上涨立刻反映在电费单上，出门走走，汽油车费吃饭喝水娱乐买东西，无一不涨，钱越来越不够用，对通膨的感受最深。

出国，马幣兑美元贬值6.7%，更不用说大部份进口商品也因此至少贵6.7%。

大马赤字高企，国债家庭债高筑，为了稳定经济基本面，减赤打债不能停；而货幣政策上，马幣贬值是联储局“收水”造成的资金外移造成，只要有序波动，国行很少直接干预，目前唯一可以使用的升息，基於利率政策以前瞻性为大前提，国行近期不会轻举妄动。

大马隔夜政策利率企於3%，商业银行目前的存款利率介於2.75%至3.25%左右，以3.4%的通膨，大马已经步入负利率时代，大马35%的高储蓄率，存户的钱因为通膨而缩水。靠储蓄老本过活的退休族，也面对“退休金”缩水的打击。

国行曾在2008年金融风暴期间，推出年率5%的债券供人民认购，以紓解负利率打击，这次会否依样画葫芦是未知数；国人还是作好生活在高通膨和负利率期的心理准备比较实际。

Malaysia’s rising household debt hits new record of 86.8% of GDP

Malaysia's household debt level has risen to a new record of 86.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) at end-2013, driven by loans for properties and motor vehicles. That is the highest household-debt-to-GDP level in Asia.

“The ratio of household debt-to-GDP is expected to remain elevated over the next few years as demand for credit is likely to remain strong, particularly from the relatively young labour force and more affluent population setting in urban centres,” Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said at a press briefing.

According to the central bank’s annual report, household debt in the country had grown at a faster pace of 12.7% annually from 2003 to 2013 to 86.8% of GDP at the end of last year, compared with the growth of total household assets at 10.4% annually to 321.6% of GDP at end-2013.

In level terms, though, household assets had continued to exceed debt by 3.7 times.

This, Bank Negara said, was mainly attributable to rising household income, which facilitated asset accumulation through an increase in savings and borrowings.

Nevertheless, the central bank reckoned that over-leveraging that was not commensurate with income would make households more vulnerable to adverse shocks, and that would subsequently pose a risk to household spending and sustainable growth of the country’s economy.

Therefore, it said there was a need to continuously evaluate financial developments and undertake pre-emptive action to mitigate the build-up of imbalances when appropriate.

As it stands, Zeti said risks to financial stability from household lending remained well contained.

“Household loans from the banking system continued to improve in quality across all loan segments, with delinquencies remaining low and continuing to trend downwards.

“This has been supported by sustained improvements in the lending and risk management practices of banks,” she said, noting that the aggregate balance sheet and debt servicing capacity of households remained intact, supported by favourable employment and income conditions.

The combined effects of incremental macro-prudential measures introduced by Bank Negara since 2010 to prevent excessive indebtedness have resulted in a more stabilised leverage position of households.

For instance, aggregate household borrowings last year grew at the slowest pace of 11.7% since 2010 due significantly to growth in personal financing by non-bank financial institutions.

Even so, the central bank noted that the current leverage level at about seven times annual income remained high.

One of Bank Negara’s policy imperatives, therefore, is to ensure that households do not borrow beyond their means.

Bank Negara said it would continue to closely monitor lending to lower-income households, noting that families earning below RM3,000 a month had higher leverage positions than those in other income groups and hence, would be more vulnerable to income shocks.

Meanwhile, the central bank said it was also its policy priority to ensure asset prices in the country were reflective of economic fundamentals, as sharp corrections in asset prices could impose significant adverse impact on macroeconomic and financial stability.

“Asset price movements have an important effect on household spending. For example, a reversal of asset price gains in recent years is likely to reduce wealth, which may cause households to scale back on their spending.

“Thus, policy would need to focus on the sustainability of asset prices and the spillovers to the economy,” it said.

Five reasons why Malaysia is not in trouble

Malaysia is better prepared to manage another global financial crisis due to its sound economic and financial structure as well as the availability of a strong surveillance mechanism, according to Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz.

“Reforms that we have implemented since the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis have improved the resilience of our financial system tremendously so much so that we are now better able to manage any global financial market volatility,” Zeti told reporters during a press briefing in conjunction with the release of Bank Negara’s 2013 annual report.

“Whether we will have another financial crisis or not is beyond our control,” Zeti said, adding that the country would be better able to manage risks should another financial crisis occur.

She said conditions for the financial system had improved while the global economy was on a steady recovery path.

“This recovery is going to be modest and it will happen very gradually over a number of years,” Zeti said, adding that the global economy and financial system remained vulnerable to setbacks that could undermine its recovery process.

“But I believe the recent global financial crisis that happened in 2007/08 has put forth many lessons that we can learn ,” Zeti said in response to a question on whether Malaysia was prepared for another financial crisis.

Recently, former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had said that Malaysia should be prepared for another financial crisis.

Towards this end, Zeti outlined reforms in five key areas that have played a part in strengthening the country’s economy.

“First, our economic structure has changed. It is now more balanced, as domestic demand has become the driver of growth. If there are major economic contractions due to global developments as we have seen in recent years, our growth would be modest, but we could stay on a steady growth path,” she said.

Second, the financial system has become more resilient with stronger banks.

“Previously, we had a fragmented banking system. Now, our banks are well-capitalised; they are much larger and are certainly less vulnerable to the various kinds of shocks that we could experience,” she said.

Zeti said the third fundamental change would be the central bank having a wider range of powers and instruments at its disposal to address contagion risks.

“We have the power now not only to address risks that arise from those sectors that are regulated directly by us, but also other non-bank sectors that contribute to build-up in excesses in the financial system,” she said, noting that policymakers had drawn many lessons from the United States and European experience in the wake of the global financial crisis.

“When we see something happening in one segment of the financial system, we quickly address it, taking into account the contagion and knock-on effects,” she noted.

The fourth area relates to having in place an integrated regional crisis management framework that puts policymakers in a constant state of readiness and prepares them for any eventuality, including better assessment of risks and implementing pre-emptive measures.

Zeti disclosed that under the framework, Bank Negara and its counterparts in the region had many simulations of unanticipated events, and a command and recovery centre to tackle various risks.

Lastly, the country’s primary and secondary bond markets have deepened since the Asian financial crisis.

“Before the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis, the bond market accounted for only about 35% of gross domestic product (GDP). Now, it accounts for 108% of GDP,” she said, adding that Malaysia currently had the largest bond market in South-East Asia, with 50% of its bond market being made up of corporate bond issuance and the remainder syariah-compliant or sukuk issuances.

“Finally, we have some degree of confidence in being able to pre-emptively manage any risk of a crisis which is beyond our control because our surveillance mechanism has been strengthened immensely over the years,” Zeti said.

The surveillance mechanism extended not only nationwide but also across Asia, Zeti said adding: “We have a regional surveillance mechanism in place so that we can understand very early on what the risks are to our economy and financial stability. We have communications with our counterparts on a weekly or regular basis to analyse the risks that we could be facing,” she said.